2020年2月1日 星期六

美股未來走勢分析

經過三天反彈,昨晚道指大挫600點,馬田的預測目前看是「完美達標」,有幸及時沽出UDOW,並反手做淡買入SDOW,已有不錯回報。金銀走勢亦一如小弟早前分析,於美股下滑時呈反向上升。馬田提出是較長期ECM走勢分析,輔以一點傳統技術分析會更完美。看看下圖道指日線走勢,試畫兩線分析短期走勢,昨晚明顯已跌穿自去年10月以來構成的上升軌道,中間並出現一個巨大下跌裂口,1月24日的最低位28843點變成了重大阻力位,除非升越此位並企穩,否則短期後市繼續看淡。



中長期又如何?看看下圖,以每週收市計,連剛過去的這星期,已連續兩星期下跌,同樣形成一個下跌裂口,1月18日前的那星期成為一個歷史頂部。如果未來一週頭尾收市計都是下跌,有機會形成大跌市前的技術走勢形態「三隻烏鴉」,除非2月第二週能顯著止跌回升,否則很大機會再之後出現更大跌浪。跌到甚麼位呢?小弟試畫幾條線,週線走勢上無法進一步突破2019年年頭所形成的上升軌,見頂了。就算後市看好,繼續沿上升軌上升,亦有機會跌到27000點左右的上升軌底部。這個可能性應該頗高,喚言之,最觀樂估計,目前只調整了50%。如果跌穿27000點,跌穿上升軌,後市將更淡。





週線的分析已經算樂觀,如果看月線,後市更悲。看看下圖月線走勢,2019年1月份既創出了歷史新高(1月17日),同時這個月收市計又是下跌的,技術形態上應該是「烏雲蓋頂」,對上一次月線走勢的「烏雲蓋頂」發生於2018年10日,之後四個月都走弱,從最高26828點調整至最低見22686,跌幅4142點,跌幅約15%。以這回最高29373點計,約可調整至24967點,與最下圖的畫線預測接近。不過要留意,下跌不會一跌到底,中間會有若干反彈,道指長期仍處牛市,要繼續留意走勢,小心分析。但總結:目前這個位做淡美股應該勝算很高。





3 則留言:

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