香港樓市vs黃金

馬田大師：港樓正等待傻瓜接貨！

Hong Kong (HK), Singapore, Taiwan and mainland Chinese cities have seen the world’s highest price appreciation in the last couple of years. Despite measures to cool off the housing markets Singapore and HK prices continued  climbing for much of 2011, although the rate of appreciation was slower than in 2010 and sales volumes decreased sharply.

High economic growth and negative real interest rates, as well as demand from wealthy Chinese buyers (who purchase as much as 40% of higher-end units according to Colliers Intl HK) have been fueling a speculative buying frenzy. Investors have driven real estate up to nosebleed prices, hoping to find that proverbial greater fool to sell to.

Well, there may not be any such fools  left. The market started to turn in mainland China (prices across Chinese cities have been dropping since October) and prices in HK equally started correcting in late 2011. Average prices of higher-end apartments in Singapore were, in 2011, above $20,000/m2 and average prices of top-end homes came to  more than $30,000/m2 (according to Savills); the record sales price of a condo was $58,000/m2. HK prices reached similarly outlandish levels  after a near 70% rise since 2009; according to Savills’ Global Cities Survey HK is the most expensive residential property market worldwide, with prices 55%higher than in London.

Unsurprisingly, HK and Singapore properties have the lowest rental yields in the world (Monaco aside) at 2-3.5%. Only Taiwan is even worse with yields under 2%. (Note that these are gross yields!) 

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上圖金價對香港樓價比率，97年，美聯香港樓價平均是6300左右，當年金價是平均是331美元，樓金比例大約20。這是近20年高位，此後一直就下跌，跌到2010年10月，香港平均樓價是4931，1安士黃金是1350美元，比例是3.652，比2009年11月30日的歷史低位3.636尚差少許，當時金價$1200下，最高見1180。

今日美聯香港樓價平均呎價是8677，金價是1750，比率是4.958，香港樓價突破了長期對黃金貶值的下降軌，是調整？還是返回升勢？

我買調整！即是如果金價現價不變，樓價起碼要跌一兩成，或者是價樓不變，但黃金升至2375以上，香港樓價對黃金比率才會返回長期下降軌！