2012年11月24日 星期六

香港樓市vs黃金


馬田大師:港樓正等待傻瓜接貨!

Hong Kong (HK), Singapore, Taiwan and mainland Chinese cities have seen the world’s highest price appreciation in the last couple of years. Despite measures to cool off the housing markets Singapore and HK prices continued  climbing for much of 2011, although the rate of appreciation was slower than in 2010 and sales volumes decreased sharply.

High economic growth and negative real interest rates, as well as demand from wealthy Chinese buyers (who purchase as much as 40% of higher-end units according to Colliers Intl HK) have been fueling a speculative buying frenzy. Investors have driven real estate up to nosebleed prices, hoping to find that proverbial greater fool to sell to.

Well, there may not be any such fools  left. The market started to turn in mainland China (prices across Chinese cities have been dropping since October) and prices in HK equally started correcting in late 2011. Average prices of higher-end apartments in Singapore were, in 2011, above $20,000/m2 and average prices of top-end homes came to  more than $30,000/m2 (according to Savills); the record sales price of a condo was $58,000/m2. HK prices reached similarly outlandish levels  after a near 70% rise since 2009; according to Savills’ Global Cities Survey HK is the most expensive residential property market worldwide, with prices 55%higher than in London.

Unsurprisingly, HK and Singapore properties have the lowest rental yields in the world (Monaco aside) at 2-3.5%. Only Taiwan is even worse with yields under 2%. (Note that these are gross yields!) 

===========================================================

上圖金價對香港樓價比率,97年,美聯香港樓價平均是6300左右,當年金價是平均是331美元,樓金比例大約20。這是近20年高位,此後一直就下跌,跌到2010年10月,香港平均樓價是4931,1安士黃金是1350美元,比例是3.652,比2009年11月30日的歷史低位3.636尚差少許,當時金價$1200下,最高見1180。

今日美聯香港樓價平均呎價是8677,金價是1750,比率是4.958,香港樓價突破了長期對黃金貶值的下降軌,是調整?還是返回升勢?

我買調整!即是如果金價現價不變,樓價起碼要跌一兩成,或者是價樓不變,但黃金升至2375以上,香港樓價對黃金比率才會返回長期下降軌!

20 則留言:

Lisa 提到...

我都說過, 在投資路上每走一步都是賭運的 !
樓市升到呢個地步, 係傻的都知是癲峰啦 !
我都搵咗D仔女商量, 好唔好賣出投資物業, 唔會再留俾佢地, 但又驚賣咗一定買唔返的, 而依家又唔借銀行錢有租收, 賣咗收返廢紙又唔知要點投資, 所以好難決定 !

猛虎勇士 提到...

Lisa姐,不如叫租客直接用黃金白銀交租啦!但又要check 真假,都係講下笑就得。

Lisa 提到...

回猛虎,
依家有用部份租金來買銀幣啦 XD !
我依家要靠租金生活嘛, 所以賣咗又少咗現金的流入 !

wallace wong 提到...

好多朋友都早前放樓租住,個個都索百幾個,而家賺幾多都俾番租了,所以放樓呢個想法,只適用於有二層樓以上嘅人!/.\

Lisa 提到...

自住樓, 一定唔可以賣 XD !

Gordon 提到...

Joe兄,
香港的樓金比例的長期下降趨勢,期待出現反比例的一天,哈哈!
唔係無可能架,曾經試過幾兩黃金買到一座位於北京市區內的四合院。

Lisa 提到...

亂世時乜都有可能 !

匿名 提到...

Lisa姐,你比較喜歡資本利得...定系現金流?

Lisa 提到...

想退休唔曬做, 一定要每月有足夠的現金流, 唔係何錢來生活 ?
所以好多投資顧問教人計退休資金得啖笑 XD ! 就算你計得掂須要幾多資金先可以退下來, 來一個惡性通脹, 多多都唔夠曬啦 !

匿名 提到...

o系呀我都信現金流! 既系咁講...假設d物業有穩定既現金流的話,無謂為一時既資本利得去搏啊~

閒人 提到...

Joe 兄:

1. 12年10月美聯全港樓價是每呎HKD 6667.
2. 金價宜用回港元, 雖然有聯繫匯率。

Lisa 提到...

當然唔會賣曬全部物業, 只想賣出一間合份人買的, 來換間小單位俾D仔女返來有多D地方住 :)
一來合份物業將來對承繼人會好煩, 二來可以襯高位套現 !

匿名 提到...

Nice chart.

無國價投資人

Wong Wai Leong 提到...

請問joe兄,請幅圖怎樣才可以獲得?

Jo 提到...

好耐之前168某師兄貼的,我第二次貼了!太耐,所以大家唔記得!這卜快三年了!

匿名 提到...

很認同Lisa姐既講法,投資物業真係好易一子錯滿盤皆落索

Johnson

Marcus_Cheung 提到...

樓主,溫馨提示一下,LPM已經搬咗去中環啦。

匿名 提到...

Great post. I was checking constantly this blog and I'm impressed! Extremely useful info particularly the last part :) I care for such info much. I was looking for this certain information for a long time. Thank you and good luck.
Here is my website how to make an app

kk 提到...

LPM新地址:香港中環都爹利街6號印刷行9樓905室

左治 提到...

實物交換後才是黃金
衣食住行

衣已不愁
食最難儲
行,看來包Internet
住也是皇道

金銀宜佔少半
四百買金四倍