美股道指昨晚收市，高於1月17日做出的29348收市價。短線而言，打破了1月17日的歷史高位，偏離了小弟先前預計。初步亦偏離了馬田ECM理論2020年1月18日將是美股暫時頂部的預測，暫時的調整亦不如他預計的20%的多。馬田的預測及ECM模式失效嗎？沒有！如小弟上一篇所說，ECM模式是協助我們面對不同狀況該如何部署，不是告訴你到了那個拐點資產一定會升或跌，而是告訴你升跌背後帶出的義意。
往後發展會如何？小弟去年12月14日另一篇文章已有提及馬田的另一種見解。大意是如果整個上升跨越1月18日，便有機會挑戰30000點，1月17日後的小調整(29373滑至最低28169)只下調了4%，稱不上一次似樣調整，故小弟認為挑戰30000點機會是高的。
美股進入新階段嗎？將會爆升上去嗎？抑或只是短期虛火？何時再出現調整？如何部署？以上相信是一眾像小弟的短線淡友關注的問題。先看看下圖，道指週線走勢，明顯地於2019年第四季出現突破點，穿越2018年建立的上升軌道，一直維持至今都沒有回落到上升軌。
不過，將上圖拉遠一圖，放大一點看，可以看到一幅更宏觀的長期走勢，讓我們更清楚知道現在發生甚麼事。所謂2018年建立的上升軌其實是一條「下壓修正線」，修正2017年年尾超買高位，如果順着這條線一直發展，大約於2021年頭會與2009年金融海嘯股災後復活的牛市上升軌(由兩條紅色線構成)匯合，再一次返回這條長期上升軌，延續牛市運行。
可惜事情並不如此發展，2019年10月道指突破了這條修正下壓線，一直至2020年1月及2月更屢創新高。或者你會問，難道不可是美股進入新階段，出現突破嗎？為何此時創新高就有機會大調整？這就要結合馬田的ECM信心模式去理解了。看看下圖，2015.75至2020.05是一個私人信心的下滑周期，故作為私人資產的股票於拐點(私人信心低點)卻創出一個歷史高位，就是偏離牛市運行的「背馳」。根 據馬田ECM信心模式，調整並返會基礎上升軌(紅線通道)乃 必然。
調整並返回「正軌」是對於牛市運 行最健 康的發展。若應跌不跌，反創新高，有時甚至變 成牛市敗局。需等待另外建構新 的基 礎上升軌。2011.45的金價就是一個好例子，承接上一篇貼文，金價(同為私人資產)於拐點卻立於高位，結果三個月後升加劇，結果建構自2008的牛市上升軌道變成了敗局(即是2013年大調整至跌 出整條升 軌)，直至2016年才重新建立一條上升軌道(見下圖)。
明白了這幅長期走勢地圖，小弟有幾點策略建議。首先，做淡有得守，高位不會維持以年計的時間，看看下圖，交易量於2020年1月已明顯大幅萎縮，與市況並不配合。其次，1月17日的高位29373.62已觸及發展自2017年升軌的頂部，需 要有 進一步的大升，才能確認再次進入升市新階段(其實即是偏離基礎升軌的新階段)。感謝網友傳來馬田付費高階分析，2020年2月的月收市必需高於29373.62才能作 為新階段的訊號，否則會打道回府，跌回通道較下方位置。不過，此時作為淡友是心理困難期，若能於未來一兩星 期平手沽出部份做淡股票，待高位再做淡，可以是一種策略。不過， 就 算決定一動不如一靜， 繼續守，道指進一步急升 到新階段並且持續長時間的機會應該不高。
2 則留言:
小弟一己愚見, 請各位師兄指教. 雖有些事後孔明, 但學到老, 投資到老.
I think the private blog on Jan 24,2020, should have some indication for past two weeks rally.
Martin wrote, “The ECM turning point has worked like a charm. Of course, the fundamental everyone is attributing to the decline is the new virus out of China. A lower closing for this week should result in a further decline into February. Last week's lows were 919306 NASDAQ Composite, 326843 Cash S&P500, and 28819.43 in the Dow. Closing below the previous week low will be very bearish. We can move back to retest the top of the previous channel.”
Actually, 1/24 failed to close lower than previous week low.
1. 919306 NASDAQ Composite, (Closed 2020-01-24, 9314.91) Failed
2. 326843 Cash S&P500, and (Closed 2020-01-24, 3295.47) Failed
3. 28819.43 in the Dow. (Closed 2020-01-24, 28989.73) Failed
That meant, I shouldn’t too bearish after 1/24 closing. But I mislead by the decline on 1/27 and 1/31. Especially on 1/31, drop 603.41pt. I anticipate more correction will coming soon. The market tell the truth, follow the numbers.
The last line of 1/24 blog is also important, “We can move back to retest the top of the previous channel.”
The previous top channel, my guess is 29841.13 which generated on 1/17.
Weekly closing date D Top env W Top env. M Top env. Q Top env. Y Top env.
1/10 29524.36 29630.93 32878.52 30665.33 22054.84
1/17 29611.11 29841.13 32928.12 30714.94 22104.44
1/24 29943.58 30006.78 32894.22 30681.04 22070.54
1/31 29843.44 30080.88 32824.80 30611.61 22001.12
2/7 29745.22 30196.77 33212.99 30691.71 22081.21
2/14 29929.94 30310.37 33240.96 30719.67 22109.18
Now, we reached Intraday High on 2/12, at 29568.57 and Highest weekly closing on 2/14, at 29398.08.
Is it mean Dow continue retest that “Top channel” or stop here? I don’t know.
How about look at Pivot point? On 2017-12-31, “What did the pivots confirm or deny for 2017?”
This is only blog that Martin talked about Yearly Pivot point.
Weekly pivot point is still noisy and not clear indication, look at below chart,
Weekly closing date Closed Pivot 1 Pivot 2 Pivot 3
2019-12-27 28645.26 up 28823.76 28619.09 29160.50
2020-01-03 28634.88 down 28850.82 28405.07 29229.80
2020-01-10 28823.77 up 29034.47 28355.30 29281.53
2020-01-17 29348.10 up 29633.54 28858.68 29667.56
2020-01-24 28989.73 down 29101.38 28833.48 29662.78
2020-01-31 28256.03 down 28325.85 27889.69 29119.44
2020-02-07 29102.51 up 29180.34 27968.33 29604.25
2020-02-14 29398.08 up 29441.09 28880.48 29810.32
Might be Monthly pivot pt has little more indication,
Monthly Closed Pivot 1 Pivot 2 Pivot 3
Nov 2019 28051.41 up 28441.92 27132.07 32074.64
Dec 2019 28538.44 up 29318.50 27331.26 29609.47
Jan 2020 28256.03 down 28687.19 28491.25 30583.67
Feb 2020
Mar 2020
On Jan 2020 closing is all below three pivot pt. It is bearish. Is it true? Let see what happen on coming two weeks
From Socrates on 2/14, “weekly opening pivot number, on the weekly time level, the number to watch on the opening for the week of Feb 17th will be 29441.09. We need an opening print above that number to maintain any upward momentum. Our next projected resistance stands at 29644.35. Our projected underlying support resides at 28880.48. As long as the market holds above the previous session low of 28995.66, then a further advance remains possible if we eventually open above of pivot number in the next session.”
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