2010年10月24日 星期日

Don't Short China

今日有幸跟一位親戚吃飯,他在大陸做生意,且做得頗有規模!飯局間,大家說起大陸的銀行體系的穩健程度,話間我突然想起早前Bosco曾提到,市場已有不少smart money開始short china,因為大陸的銀行借貸過熱,風險很大云云.......親戚一聽到,笑了出來,我當然追問!
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原來,大陸的銀行體系內存在著一些所謂「虛假借貸」,甚麼是「虛假借貸」呢?容我舉一個例子吧!例如某公司想來香港上市集資:
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1/先與地方政府合作,以低價買入土地使用權或礦產開發權若干年。
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2/再找公正行為土地估值,原來所謂公正行估值高低,是可以收買的,想愈高價,付愈多錢就可以了。
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3/拿著公正行發出的證明,到銀行借貸,大陸銀行當然也不笨,大家都是中國人,當然知道中國人會出甚麼花樣,但銀行仍然會批出貸款,只是貸款只過戶,一直留在客戶公司賬戶內,但客戶不能提取,並會發出貸款證明,說明客戶擁有優良的資產。款項的多少,視乎客人可付多少錢。
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4/如此客人公司的資產就會包括有一筆銀行的巨額貸款(現金流),並且有土地或礦產權,來到香港,變成一間質素優良的公司,上市當然冇難度,集了資,就過了海是神仙,可與地方政府分享成果。
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我聽到後嚇了一跳,這不等同合謀騙外國投資者嗎?銀行、公正行點解會咁做?外國或香港check唔到嗎?親戚說,外國人點check?唔通派個人去大陸睇下佢塊地下面有冇礦?外國監管機構又有何權力質疑大陸官方授權的公正行的估值?
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銀行中的借貸存款反正只是一堆數字,看過了就算,又怎去深究是真是假?且人家來香港上市,香港很多公司都會有生意做,何苦去深究?親戚又說,大陸銀行是知道當中的操作的,但大多會行方便,他甚至懷疑是得到「一種更高層次的默許」!
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結果,這些「墟假借貸」同樣會寫進國家對外公佈的銀行新增貸款之中,他不知實際數字有多少?但為數應不少,因為他認識有不少人這樣做。
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中國的system異常複雜,如果不深入了解,單憑一些數字,以及在西方市場學會的數字分析就Short China,隨時墮入一張大黑網!看來金融戰不但有「明戰」,還有「暗戰」。

4 則留言:

小C9 提到...

嗶, 咁真係唔好買A股. 被人食哂D錢都唔知咩事. 我識得1位高手臂以前幫某大香港富豪做私人投資, 佢自己從來唔買A股, 佢話好多做假, 佢唔識睇, 所以淨係買港股同美股. 又1證明係啱既.

Bosco 提到...

My friend, it's much more than that.

Your friend is only scratching the surface.

These are the good cases. Bad cases ended up in places like Macau, US, or "GDP".

Don't be silly to think those Smart Money are just Western Money. Think of Son of Premier Wen, what's he doing? It is a funny thing how many Mainlanders think Western people or Western educated people don't understand China, just like during the Qing Dynasty that we always think Westerners do not understand us. Quite the contrary, Japanese and Americans understand us more than ourselves. The aftermath of the implosion of China's 國進民退 is a series of big privatization then we will become just like Argentina. Without this implosion and privatization, the one in the power would not be able to turn national wealth into their pockets.


且人家來香港上市,香港很多公司都會有生意做,何苦去深究?親戚又說,大陸銀行是知道當中的操作的,但大多會行方便,他甚至懷疑是得到「一種更高層次的默許」!

This is exactly the worst case of Chinese economy. A "Guessing" economy and a "Mystic" economy. Everyone's guessing there must be something "smart" in behind. Whereas there is no conspricy, no well-planned vision, there is only GREED. Nothing more bad in Pure Capitalism is being demonstrated in China right now. China is different? My ass. There is no China Miracle, it's just a case of world labor arbitrage and now the inflection point has come/past and it's all downhill from now. The recent strong posture from China on issues like rare earth and South China Sea has shown China has over-estatimted its cards and overplayed it.

Let's put it this way. After all is settled and done, what does China have and US doesn't and vice versa? All I see is US has more gold, stronger military, more flexible system, better educated population, less people to feed and self-sufficient, much better technology. If you ask me, RMB is even more worthless than US dollars, it's printed more and backed by less.

We can agree to disagree, I am ultra China bearish. We are at least 10 years late in the game of Wealth Rebalance (財富再分配) and thus missed the boat of the development of the next leg. This current corp of leaders have done a really lousy job.

Lisa 提到...

所以我唔會再把太多資金放股市, 因為有幾多公司信得過 ? 考慮過, 要買都係買公用股 !

Joe 提到...

bosco,很多謝你的意見,其實聽完你這樣說,我也想了很久,覺得外國投資者不可能沒有相應對策。事後我想,可能外國人亦由得這情況發生,如此就可以加速大陸的資產泡沫,因為通過虛構借貸,會令更多錢從外國流入中國。但不知中方又有何對策,總之情勢很複雜,相信只有真金才不怕紅爐火。