好明顯係反對派攪事, 如果政府夠强, 相信問題不大。至於民心, 普普上任時, 廢左好多奧巴馬既不得民心政策, 例如自由性别法案之類, 另尼一個基督敎國家監介既法案。如果普普硬凈, 反對派咪同香港嗰d手法差不多, 即最後更多人睇到真相, 個市味又冇事。
[img]http://i.imgur.com/rjm1OXq.jpg[/img]Martin expects 2018/2019 hkd to break its peg with usd, at the latest its 2021/202218/19 most likely dollar rally, 21/22 is a focal point for most currency, probably a basket currency replacing dollars
no but i think its an text book answer, as martin mention it will be a strong dollar due to the euro being weak and people need to park money and the prettiest ugly sister is the USMy assumption is weak HKD strong USDRecent example will be the Swiss peg?
I am also thinking the same way. the question i have is whether Hkd floats freely, peg to a basket of currencies or devaluate against usd.but either way will be a decrease in value of hkd assets. Will then the big money begin to flow out of hkd(property price drop and stock market crash?) or will it attract money in instead?
When you think about it, assuming Martin is correct, lets say HKD floats freely, while big money is parking in USD. I am sure HKD is going to devalue against USD, which is the same as peg to a basket of currencies (whichever they are). So all in all its going to devalue against USD.Shouldnt asset value increase to offset the devalue of HKD locally and that the big money be flowing out or betting against HKD (think 90s)
My thinking way is big money in 2 areas, real estate and stock markets. If unpeg, stock market will definitely suffer as the people may afraid of further devaluation. For real estate, i dont know...as we are in HK, house is not movable (of coz new built will be more expensive of the cost becomes higher). afraiding of further devaluation, will u still put money in house as it is measured in hkd? will other assets like gold increase in value?To overseas investors, like Chinese, the property price decreases all of a sudden. In long run, will they rush in the property market? (existing investors will definitely cry but not sure if they will sell their property).Then thats why Martin says all tangible assets increase in value 😨
If unpeg I think all asset will rise in nominal term? For example apples are 3HKD each when its peg to USD and if it unpeg and devalue apple must cost more than 3HKD each.I believe Stock market will rise, after the initial knee jerk reaction of selling. As its an international market and the only place to store value? That is assuming US bonds go bust. Properties I dont really know either, but I think its the selling of properties, getting the cash and converting it to somewhere else that will break the peg.
Yet I believe we cannot apply "normal" economic school of thoughts/theories on HK properties as there is no other place in the world have a 1.3 billion ppl market ready to flee the country with their wealth to compare the case of HK; I do agree a sudden devaluation of HKD will bring hyperinflation in short run, yet whether HKD can stabilised aftermath depend on whether HK remain an important offshore tax haven...