2011年11月21日 星期一

歐豬會否賣金救國?




有匿名網友問,歐債危機會否逼使歐豬賣金救國,不利金價?這是近期在傳媒經常見到的言論。

國家破產與個人破產是兩回事,個人不能印錢還債,但國家卻可以,國家破產根本不具法律上意義,難道債主派一支軍隊入侵欠債國?個人破產,會被沒收資產,對國家,債主又如何沒收?今天冰島不是也好地地嗎?大不了以後在國際上借不到錢,國家內一切資源,包括礦產、森林、人力仍然屬於該國政權。

國家破產,對該國人民、政府沒有甚麼大不了,但對購買了該國債券的銀行、個人債權人、私人公司則構成重大打擊。今天歐豬的問題被說到很嚴重,出於債權人的恐懼,多於欠債國,早前希臘不是滋悠淡定,一副「太鑑唔急王帝急」的樣子嗎?

如果國家可以大模斯樣違約,不還錢,亦沒有人可以奈他何,如80年代阿根廷違約,90年代俄羅斯違約等,那他為何要出售國家重要資產(如黃金)以抵償債務?像希臘,大不了退出歐元區,再印錢還給債權人。可能有人會問,歐豬欠的是美元及歐元,退出了,重新發行自已貨幣可以用來還債嗎?

三集《主權信用貨幣與稅務》已說明,主權信用貨幣永有價值,除非政權給推翻,那一個欠債國重新發行貨幣,就算對其他大貨幣,如美元、歐羅大貶,他仍然有一個價值,欠債國仍然可以根據市場匯率,用本國貨幣還債,致於還了以後貶值多少?那是債權人自已的事。

今日歐債危機基於欠債國不能印錢還債,但這是可以改變的,印錢還債,就算將來貨幣大貶,大不了重新發行新幣取代,國家的實物資產仍然在手。但黃金是幾千年儲存下來的,賣了就要重新找,重新挖掘,不及印錢方便,你是國家,會選那一種?

其次,就算歐洲國家肯賣金救國(假設他們真的有黃金可賣),也不能解決問題,現在五隻歐豬總欠債高達3萬億歐元(見上圖),歐洲黃金儲備總和約3萬噸,賣光後只得1.3億歐元左右,與其賣金救國不如印錢好過?(我覺得歐元區加入量化寬鬆是遲早的事。)

看上面兩圖,可見未來幾年,歐債危機都會不斷纏擾市場,其中2012年2月3月4月是各國債務到期高峰,單是一個2月,意大利就有高達260億歐元債務到期,債務量非常巨大,大家要看實!

在三集的《主權信用貨幣與稅務》,大家已探討過,所謂主權債務根本是多餘,國家發債並不可能是為自已融資,因為國家對本幣根本不必融資,本幣購買力完全由國家賦予,主權債務要違約,其實比私人債務更可怕,私人債務,債權人可透過法律沒收欠債人資產,申請其破產,但對國家,私人債權人又有何奈何,一聲削債就得削,沒有討價還價能力,當下大量私人避險資金湧入美債,真是不見棺材不流眼淚!在主權債務危機下,我們更能看清甚麼是最堅實的財富!

20 則留言:

Edward 提到...

唔好意思:我想問"單是一個2月,意大利就有高達2萬6千億元債務到期"

上圖寫著是26315(百萬歐元)?是否2百6拾億歐元?

Jo 提到...

謝更正!一時看錯!

Eric 提到...

緊係唔會賣金啦,欠你錢之麻又唔係欠你金,緊係會印錢還啦,最好印完錢等通貨膨脹,等d 錢貶值,甘未又等于還小d 錢羅.

Wong Wai Leong 提到...

馬田大師最新的文章指ECB和美聯儲的分別。就是ECB不是最後的貸款人,如果ECB會唔夠資本去救歐豬。馬田大師認為ECB要重組資本,但最終會否成為最後貸款人呢?

kidthief 提到...

I am not too sure of Russia, but Argentina, privatized many vital companies and sold it off by government. Is that not in substance the same as paying off debt, except its payment for selected few (bank, large companies or elite) but not everybody?

Gordon 提到...

新聞一則:

海水中也可淘金矿

http://www.cnmn.com.cn/ShowNews1.aspx?id=222033

snowcat 提到...

但係希臘唔係賣電廠賣好多國家資產還錢咩?
其實佢可以唔賣?即刻破產算數?

Jo 提到...

這類國家資產對國外人其實無乜意義,除非外國債權人可以直接介入希臘的政治。
以這類資產,如電廠抵償債務,看落好似有著數,但想深一層,其實購買者只係擔屎上身!

kidthief 提到...

RE: Joe

擔屎上身唔係太明
係指將來會國有化?

Jo 提到...

希臘的債務源自甚麼?
答案:希臘人長期好食懶飛,福會福利好,不事生產,政府又沒有加以修正等等。簡單講,政府管理不善!

如果希臘還唔起錢,出售國家資產抵償,如電廠、水廠、國家郵政局等等,等同希臘政府將整個管理不善的系統的一部份出售給人管理,但購買者並不能直接介入希臘政治,行使管理希臘人的權力,那如何管理得好?

舉個例子,如果買了希臘電廠,加電費,cut電廠員工福利,以增加電廠收入,但遇到希臘人大力反抗,如電廠員工罷工,希臘人沖擊電廠反對加電費,那作為電廠老闆如何是好?不是要找希臘政府幫忙嗎?難道電廠老闆派一支軍隊去維持自已權益?

但既然希臘政府之前已因管理不善才出售資產,電廠老闆叫他幫忙,他能幫上忙嗎?

主權債務沒任何抵押,就算國家因欠債而出售資產,購買者亦不能想點就點,更又違反政府徵稅權邏輯,不知為何那麼多人買?

kidthief 提到...

RE: Joe

If it progress as you state that the Greek government sell their power system. I guess there is laid off, cut in benefits/retirement, and raise prices. I am sure the people are angry and there is an union for the power system. If people/worker protest isn't there a high possibility that there might no power since every worker is striking?

Unlike water, which could be bought in bottles and held in storage, the people concluded that water is created by God and the people should not be charge for consumption of water. Electricity is hard to safely store or save for future use.

Isn't it better to have a job with less pay and benefits than to have no work and no benefits? Worst come to worst it doesn't matter if there is union or not, those that have jobs would guard it and will be against those that does not have jobs as seen during great depression in USA. I guess at the end its divided and conquer.

Also an example would be Argentina in the 90s, after people realize what happen to their vital industries being privatized they were against it. They saw rise in price, laid off of jobs, etc, but it did not change anything, for 10 years (which was a lot of profit, since it was sold at a low price). I guess people always worry if there is enough food on the dinner table/a roof to live in than privatization of national assets.

kidthief 提到...

FYI about USSR/Russia

My mom paid for 18 years into my "maturity fund", which sat in the Savings Bank and accumulated tiny interest. As I reached 18, then a withdrawal could be made. This was a thousand rubles, big enough to buy several boxes (not cartons) of imported cigarettes. Through her cries I did just that and hide it all. About a week later, the news anchor said that the rumors of devaluation were completely off base. The next day, Saturday, the finance minister personally assured everyone on TV, that everything is honky dory and no devaluation is even in the plans.

The devaluation announcement was made on Sunday, yes, the next day after that. Suddenly, all money were not good for anything. You had to stand in a huge line to get in to the bank and then to exchange only a small amount of old money into the new banknotes 1 to 1. Everything above that, burned.

After that, the price increases really started in earnest. I couldn't decide what to do with my smokes, because the prices were going up so fast.

So, we were surviving like most everyone, by stealing from factory plants. Somehow, all of that industrial high quality stuff ended up abroad. I saw it all on swap meets in Turkey, few years later. Wherever one had been working, this is were he took the stuff from. Again, I can't trace it for you who was providing the other side of transactions, as I wasn't asking myself those questions.

When prices finally began to stabilize, the country was swept clean, of most of the industrial base. This is how we paid for it.

Those who just purchased homes, found themselves to be able to pay them off awesomely quick, because prices were increasing faster than any interest owed, and the salaries were increasing too, although at a magnitude slower pace, but still much faster than the rate of interest. Some folks made last bulk payments equating years of normal payments with just their last paychecks.

But this was happening only to relatively high income ones. Those on the bottom, saw real estate prices running away forever.

I sold my smokes pack by pack, basically where there were no stores, along with smuggled moonshine. Smokes turned out to be the ultimate store of value par excellence even showing some ROI. I can't think of any other commodity that did so good and wasn't perishable as sugar, tires and flour that other folks hoarded.

I have found out that this is the single item that is always in demand, and easily traded and sold. Smokes were also easy to buy in bulk even as the whole thing already started to slowly unfold.

http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2009/11/gold-urinals-or-smokes.html

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