2011年10月6日 星期四

印鈔機又出動!!!

歐央行推長期再融資英第二輪量化寬鬆應對歐債危機
06.10.2011 21:24
歐洲中央銀行及英倫銀行面對歐債危機,相繼推出措施,扶助銀行業及刺激經濟;歐洲央行開會後,決定推出兩項長期再融資措施,增加市場流動性,歐洲央行行長特里謝說,將會由今個月及十二月無限量發行為期十二及十三個月的緊急貸款,穩定銀行資本;歐洲央行又會由下月起購買總值四百億歐元有抵押債券,為期一年,協助銀行改善財務狀況。

英國就突然推出第二輪量化寬鬆政策,以刺激經濟,英倫銀行貨幣政策委員會決定,再注資七百五十億英鎊,在未來四個月購買債券,英國央行為協助國家擺脫衰退,在零九年三月至去年一月,注入二千億英鎊,購入債券;歐洲央行及英倫銀行都決定,維持息口不變,歐洲央行行長特里謝表示,金融市場持續緊張,加上不利的經濟環境,可能會拖慢歐元區下半年的經濟增長,經濟下行的風險加劇,英倫銀行說,全球經濟擴張速度陷於停滯,而歐元區債務危機,令銀行資本市場及金融市場資金緊絀,危害英國復蘇。


http://www.881903.com/Page/ZH-TW/newsdetail.aspx?itemid=437933&csid=261_367

45 則留言:

chapman 提到...

金銀立刻反彈....除咗印錢,都只有印錢

honson 提到...

要印錢.點都要印的錢出來,買油墨同紙張,咁先可以開工架

Yellow 提到...

電子貨幣時代
發行貨幣靠印鈔:0(

Joe 提到...

yellow兄,請你離開啦,呢個係最後警告!因為你主要目的是為朋友出頭,不是為討論!或者你可以在新人問路區留言!

至於你個friend內向性格,並非由我們促成,是由其成長背景促成,我們並不必負責!而且他(亦包括你)不單止內外,而且懶散,金甲各路文章已寫了幾年,為何不看完才討論,而要重復問一些數年來重復問過,而我們又有解答的問題?例如你上面那個問題,幾年前已講了N次,最近一次係9個月前,2011年1月11日:

http://www.inv168.com/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?f=48&t=55224&p=1491080&hilit=%E9%9B%BB%E5%AD%90%E8%B2%A8%E5%B9%A3#p1491080

CDG網友已解釋過!咁點解你唔將金甲理論看完,才上來討論,德國超通形成原因又是一例。仲有好多例子,所以請你同你內外又懶散,又唔話得的朋友講,要認真討論,就勤力d!(亦包括你)

唔好再重復問一些講了n年的問題!

Joe 提到...

咁耐以來,有人被金甲們寸過的人不知凡幾,有人緊緊於懷,亦有人不放心上,繼續理性討論,而且不打不相識,成為網友,最經典的例子就是168的價值人,多年反對人買金又獲金甲們邀請加入討論,請你們內外又懶散的人向其多多學習,甚麼叫做胸襟,被人寸被人鬧,唔一定要鬧番人,除左剛剛話你懶散,我又有邊一句鬧過你?拿!要分清楚,我唔同意你觀點唔係鬧你,如果你搵到我係邊到話過你,我寫番邊道歉又點話!

Curious 提到...

Financial crisis will be likely followed by global food shortage

Generation Next 提到...

Joe, sleep late and wake up early....

Joe 提到...

Yellow兄,

你朋友內向的性格固然不幸,但這裡是金甲蟲交流的園地,不是善堂,亦非社福機構,實在沒有必要善代你的朋友。由於很多勤力的網友早已努力扒文,為公平起見,不能對你內向而懶散的朋友加以包容,討論那些不知多少年前講過又講過的問題,否則的話就白費了努力網友的心機。

小弟自知人無完美,小弟的缺點就是待人太過寬容,例如給人用粗口問候都不會還擊,有時又過於苦口婆心,即是俗語說的婆媽。如果沒有一些性格掘強,又喜歡寸人的網友相助,睇怕只會連累其他勤力的網友繼續裹足不前。

其實小弟已非常盡力,將投資黃金的資訊分門別類,並列出有用連結,又加以註明,例如講明168論譠是香港第一個教人投資黃金的討論區,能於六七年前看到多數人看不到的投資機遇,想必對經濟有過人見解,但你及你的朋友就是看不到這點,沒有細心參考,在發問問題或討論前,從沒有嘗試到這個金甲繵找一下資料,看看找不找到答案,結果是重復又重復問一些講了多年的問題。

部份網友激烈的言詞固然會令部份內向的人傷心,但嚴厲對待,對某些人來說並沒有問題,有些人更喜歡被嚴厲對待,激發自已上進心,我們並不能因你朋友的內向,心靈脆弱,又懶散,而不一視同仁,否則的話,又怎對得起那些堅強又勤力上進的網友?

言詞激烈的網友就像一部瀘水機,將那些不勤力的人篩走,像你朋友就是一例,小弟在此要感激他們,彌補了小弟婆媽的個性,亦令許多勤力扒文的網友不必花時間精神重復看一些討論了多年的問題,這令小弟有時感到非常慚愧,因為小弟過於寬容的性格,阻慢了勤力網友的進度,如馬田大師的文章就因此而受了一點阻滯。

你作為一個好友,對自已內向的朋友,不但不循循善誘,加以善導,還要代他出頭,加入罵戰,以為罵贏了就是幫了朋友,小弟對你朋友實在感到非常不幸,希望你能令到朋友變得堅強及勤力,如果連網上他人的言詞都要緊緊於懷,放不下,將來又如何面對這個充滿競爭的社會?如果真是誠心討論,何不努力自我增值,等對問題有更深入的了解才討論?而不要重復一些過了N年的問題?

Joe 提到...

關於超通的概念其實早於2006年或更早時間,就已討論過:

http://www.inv168.com/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?f=21&t=30599&p=761212&hilit=hyperinflation#p761212

難道很多網友討論過的問題,又要為了你及你內向的朋友而重復又由頭到尾討論一次?如果你是明白事理的,又覺得這樣對我們公不公平?

如果你看完能提出新觀點,我們十分歡迎,並會再誠心討論,但實在沒有必要再為一個不懂為朋友的人,而再浪費時間!

i 提到...

其實與為佢會韃馬田出哩,因為Martin曾經提出印鈔唔係做成超通嘅原因,而係錢互換嘅速度(money velocity),而貨幣高速互換係因為公眾無信心, 而咁啱又係用德國嚟做例子, 詳見 (page3-5)
http://www.martinarmstrong.org/files/Sometimes-the-Lunatic-Fringe-Do-Get-It-Right-5-1-10.pdf

Martin提出:
"Hyperinflation is NOT caused by a rise in the money stock, but in a collapse in the public confidence. As long as people believe that money stock will still buy something tomorrow, they will hoard and save for rainy day. ... But if they lose confidence in saving, be it government and banks, they will turn to then hoarding tangible assets and that is the primary threshold between normal inflation and HYPERINFLATION"

我翻譯唔好但係嘗試:
"貨幣數量多少不是超通嘅原因,而係公眾嘅信心。如果群眾相信手上嘅錢係明天係重可以買到東西嘅話,群眾係會蓄起錢做不時之需。一旦群眾對政府或銀行失去信心嘅話,就會將手上嘅錢換成實際資產,而呢個就係普通脹同超通嘅分水嶺"

佢呢幾日又鮑魚又紅酒咁,又提問德國嘅hyperinflation,令我垂涎三尺,與為有料到,點知得個吉!

我想如果佢能以事論事,唔係為報仇而嚟,分分鐘可聊上4,5個post...

Joe 提到...

他以為這樣是在幫朋友,實情是在害朋友!朋友都已朋友不多了,證明與人相處很有問題,我估計是做人太介懷別人所言,對自己沒有信心,一旦人家寸多幾句,即數天睡不著,感覺受迫害,其實網上之言又何用太認真,覺得對的就聽多幾句,不對的就過主到別處,代人出頭加入罵戰,對方可能更惡言相對,對弱小心靈可能做成更多傷害,於事無補,不是一個好的處理方法。估計yellow兄亦沒有小朋友,我自已就有,如果自已的小朋友被別人罵,解決的方法並非代小朋友罵回別人,然後錄音給小朋聽,而是應教導小朋友這個世界的人有許多不同觀點及態度,不要太介懷某些人的看法及說法。這樣對方就有機會釋懷,以更開放的心靈去看世界。印度教裡有一部經典,叫《博加梵歌》,可在尖沙咀印度廟內買到中文版:

http://www.iskconhk.org/html/aboutus/management.htm

希望yellow兄參考一下!

嘉芙蓮 提到...
作者已經移除這則留言。
Cefull 提到...

"velocity of money" 有何方法去量度?

嘉芙蓮 提到...

Cefull,

academic way is The formula for the velocity of money is:
V = (P * Y)/M,
where V is the velocity, P is the price level, Y is the real GDP and M is the quantity of money.

where i use my way, just look at the fractional reserve banking system.

Joe 提到...

佢呢幾日又鮑魚又紅酒咁,又提問德國嘅hyperinflation,令我垂涎三尺,與為有料到,點知得個吉!
------------------------------------
德國以前都講過,反而中國民國比較少!與大家的切親感受更深!

Joe 提到...

最好笑叫人投資網鮑,其實食家推崇的是禾麻及吉品,所以都好肯定提出者未食過。仲有唔可以就咁放在瓶內,要得閒取出來曬下,才會好味!

投資就要投資吉品及禾麻,因為貨源少,得日本有出產,聽名稱就知,吉品及禾麻都是日本名,網鮑則不是,因為全世界只得日本人懂製作吉品及禾麻,且技術不外傳。

叫人投資網鮑,害死人!

Gordon 提到...

無論如何,結果Yellow 兄也学習了何謂超级通漲啦。我也学到法幣速度的公式,开眼界了,謝謝嘉芙蓮。

Gordon 提到...

Joe兄,
所以可以肯定佢無刨文,建议你投资海味喎,点會夠你熟?

Cefull 提到...

嘉芙蓮,
How to find the velocity of money by looking at the fractional reserve banking system?
M seems to be M3, however, fed did not release M3 since 2005. Also, what means of price level? CPI?

Cefull 提到...

投資紅酒唔係你諗得咁容易, 尤其是唔識分辨真酒假酒, 好易中計.
紅酒不如乾脆d, 買來喝掉算了.

Cefull 提到...

http://gogoldjoe.blogspot.com/2011/06/blog-post_15.html

下面的comment 小弟有寫過「解說驗銀」. d 儀器其實唔係好複雜, 至少易用過 iphone.

Cefull 提到...

http://www.martinarmstrong.org/files/Occupy%20Wall%20Street%2010-01-2011.pdf
各位有無諗過馬田大師講o既 "Market Manipulators" 係d 咩人? 仲要係 "hide behind the mask of Wall Street", "not part of the system at all", "Definitely not Wall Street".

Gordon 提到...

Joe 兄,
面己俾,他自己喜欢丟架就無需客气地講道理了。你是斯文人,無謂同佢一般見識,直接block了,如何?

Cefull 提到...

Bravo! 登時清靜晒.

Gordon 提到...

Re:cefull
MA寫到咁呼之欲出,你都未接受到神秘組織在美国的巨大影响力?

Cefull 提到...

我反而覺得好奇怪的是, 神秘組織內的成員真係個個都咁意見一致? 有咁多成員的組織但係無分黨分派的現象實在太過匪夷所思.

嘉芙蓮 提到...

Cefull,

dont take the formula seriously, u will never be able to get the correct data to do the calculation. Thats why simply refer to the way fractional reserve banking works will help you to understand the idea. All data published doesnt really make sense such as inflation rate, unemployement rate.

if you are really serious in understanding the formula, i found a youtube video explains the formula:
http://youtu.be/2VIZv2yNS-M

or a very good article: http://news.goldseek.com/MillenniumWaveAdvisors/1209326748.php

King Kong 提到...

http://blog.yahoo.com/_DZJ4NGTMCE6UGZP2HC4PUUDPIE/articles/63114/index
「黃金喪鐘已經敲響」

大家點睇?

Gordon 提到...

以我所知,神秘組織的架构與微软和索尼公司類似。當要執行大計劃時,內部幾個不同的部门會互相兢爭。所以歐洲和美国即使為貨幣問題鬥到火紅火綠,也不会影响NWO的大計。

i 提到...

噢,一覺醒來,formula 終於出場 (我真係與為Yellow哥係可以辯論到呢度架!),MV = PY, 本來咁排法,無咁起眼,但係經高手一個re-arrangement, V = (P * Y)/M 即刻成為金甲死穴!!

何以? Would 芙姐 do the honor? :)

BTW, 拿, Yellow哥,咁叫踢館! 雖然你唔再係度,但係你嘅紅酒鮑魚永遠與我們同在!

i 提到...

佢呢幾日又鮑魚又紅酒咁,又提問德國嘅hyperinflation,令我垂涎三尺,與為有料到,點知得個吉!
------------------------------------
德國以前都講過,反而中國民國比較少!與大家的切親感受更深!

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

的確,個個爭相買起古董鮑魚紅酒來,經濟好買哩嘆就話嗟,香港80,90就年代就係啦,但係現在全球火紅火綠,好明顯係資金亂竄嘅後果,聽講阿Charen兄轉買呢啲,都不無道理,可惜係用黎抄,唔係用嚟長楂,希望佢睇到啦,不過佢咁爛賭,:))) 點會阿,我嘅擔心係多餘嘅....

i 提到...
作者已經移除這則留言。
i 提到...

http://blog.yahoo.com/_DZJ4NGTMCE6UGZP2HC4PUUDPIE/articles/63114/index
「黃金喪鐘已經敲響」

大家點睇?

----------------------------------

驚lor, 即刻打咗嗰尿震,而家放哂啦, 舒服咗好多!

嘉芙蓮 提到...

i
there are lots of debate on a proper way to measure the money supply, whether to use M1, M2 or M3.

I tend to agree the argument of using M1 which includes short term money such as cash and checking accounts which can convert into cash easily.

By using short term money supply to measure velocity of money, that is how likely people hold on to their cash. In situation when people are have job insecurity they will hold more cash and thus the velocity of money will fall. If they feel secured and flooded with cash they will spend it quicker.

However, the fear of inflation will also trigger people to spend faster, this high velocity may also indicate a fear of the value of their money depreciating quickly.

Few examples found: during the Hyperinflation in Weimar Germany between 1921 and 1923, this time inflation got so bad that people would pay for their meal before the meal because if they waited until the end it would cost more.

Also, at Zimbabwe, wages were paid few times a day otherwise it will lose value at the end of each day.

as soon as people have cash, they will tend to spend it fast and tend to purchase and hold on to tangible assets like gold, silver or even food.

Eric 提到...

通賬下..渣實物資產..渣商業大廈..工業大廈..樓上舖..地舖o ng ok?

kidthief 提到...

Brad Meltzer's Decoded: Fort Knox
http://goldsilver.com/video/brad-meltzer-s-decoded-fort-knox/

i 提到...

Kat,

That's a very informative reply on money base.

Let's further our discussion on the relationship between the money velocity(V) and the money base(M, no matter it is M1, M2 or M3). I know this formula -> V = (P * Y)/M is probably not empirical. However, it reveals a very startling inverse relationship between money velocity and money stock! If we assume that the formula has certain degree of validity, is it fair to say that money supply is actually an ANTIDOTE to money velocity? If the money base is being increased large enough, one can actually offset the money velocity? In addition to Martin and Mike's theory on hyperinflation (suggesting that money velocity is the main reason behind hyperinflation but not the money base). Would it also be reasonable to say that Governments or Banks are actually doing the RIGHT thing (aka printing money) to prevent hyperinflation?!!!

This argument could be a dagger in goldbugs hearts!!! And we are cheering in the wrong crowd all along!

Note*: I am not talking about inflation here as increasing money base would probably cause certain degree of inflation. I am talking hyperinflation scenario.

即係根據公式嘅邏輯,V = (P * Y)/M,貨幣互換速度係同貨幣數量成反比嘅話,印鈔係可以抵銷貨幣互換速度,繼而可以防止超通嘅出現(如果馬田同馬龍尼嘅理論係正確嘅話)?咁金甲一日係咁哎QE to infinity其實咪係好吊鬼(茅盾)?

chapman 提到...

i兄,可能你諗多咗.,金甲無[一日係咁哎QE to infinity],(起碼我唔係)
本人目的好簡單
1.無諗住自己有本事玩得嬴金融遊戲,唔敢玩只看數字上落嘅投資.
2.將老老實實辛辛苦苦搵的財富保存好
3.萬一(雖然我覺得機會極大)貨幣制度破產時,唔駛任當權者魚肉...

閒人 提到...

i兄無諗多左, 相反係諗少左. 首先不要倒果為因. 增發貨幣 M 係因為人為金融海嘯令 V 急劇下降, 要救金融機構就只好增大 M. 這個用啤酒泡同啤酒比喻最貼切. 泡 (Velocity, credit) 減少就注番啤酒 (Money base)維持水面高度 (P*Y). 另外, i兄不要以為 P*Y 不會變. 真正是可升可跌. 只不過, 因為美國消費型經濟結構及總統要連任, 不可以令 P 下跌的. 因此 M 的增加速度要比 V的下降速度高.

貨幣增發總會有一個臨界點的, Velocity 會突然急升的, 而且是惡性循環, 一開始了怎樣降 M 都煞不住的, 亦即是信心崩潰之時。同時政府為應付赤字又不能不繼續增發貨幣.

Joe 提到...

通賬下..渣實物資產..渣商業大廈..工業大廈..樓上舖..地舖o ng ok?
--------------------------------------------

我覺得係實物就OK!但要唔係借錢買!否則隨時死得更快!

kidthief 提到...

RE:JOE
但要唔係借錢買!

Including fix rate loan?

Generation Next 提到...

若果錢當柴燒了, 補印是可保持超級通漲的勁頭。一笑。

電子$不能燒, 怎辦? 再一笑

i 提到...

ahh, weekends 忙到爆,而家先有時間,中文又打得慢,好繁.

chapman兄, 我意思係普遍金甲好喜歡將印鈔同超通擠埋嚟講(注意唔係普通通脹),講成為一個"有力"買金嘅原因, 以線性思維推斷貨幣供應多就一定會做成超通,繼而斷定金一定升爆, 最單純係用(Money base divided by quantity of gold), 又12,000/oz, 又 24,000/oz咁. 其實幾錢oz真係無從估計,但係咁嘅諗法好容易比人用money base related news黎利用同操縱, 攪到買咗金之後更加坐唔安吃唔落, 日日問幾時出幾時入,人都顛!

我講嘅野唔係話僅你,只係唔likey哩個咁"行"嘅論點,而馬田嘅confidence model理論咁有新見, 係我推敲嘅過程觀察到哩嗰有趣嘅反比,攞出黎討論吓嗟.

i 提到...

閒人兄...

的確,唔想諗得太多!只係作最少嘅推演! 因為我呢個論點同一般金甲持守嘅觀點有好大嘅茅盾!
我只做咗一個假設,就係馬田嘅理論係成立嘅,即係貨幣互換速度係超通嘅因素.
而貨幣互換速度係有一條 formula -> V = (P * Y)/M 嚟描述
繼而題出增加貨幣量係可以抵消貨幣互換速度論點. 所以政府或銀行印鈔係其實防止緊超通嘅發生.

i兄無諗多左, 相反係諗少左. 首先不要倒果為因. 增發貨幣 M 係因為人為金融海嘯令 V 急劇下降, 要救金融機構就只好增大 M.
>>> 反而你嘅推演多好多,認真娛樂性豐富! 1) 我無想要解釋金融海嘯嘅起因. 2) 你又知金融海嘯係人為(by design)? 3) 我提出增大M其實係想防止緊超通嘅發生 (無提過救金融機構)

這個用啤酒泡同啤酒比喻最貼切. 泡 (Velocity, credit) 減少就注番啤酒 (Money base)維持水面高度 (P*Y).
>>> 嘩,阿閒人兄,你知唔知velocity 係咩阿? 同credit都唔同性質, 單位都唔同啦, credit measures in $, money velocity measure in $/time. 個比喻only account for money base, 唔掂wor.

另外, i兄不要以為 P*Y 不會變. 真正是可升可跌. 只不過, 因為美國消費型經濟結構及總統要連任, 不可以令 P 下跌的. 因此 M 的增加速度要比 V的下降速度高.
>>> 呢度就make sense啲啦. 不過P->price level 同 Y->real GDP 都無M容易咁去操縱. 重有,你叫啲政客去壓低price leve and gdp,咪其實叫佢哋去自奄...

貨幣增發總會有一個臨界點的, Velocity 會突然急升的, 而且是惡性循環, 一開始了怎樣降 M 都煞不住的, 亦即是信心崩潰之時。同時政府為應付赤字又不能不繼續增發貨幣.
>>> 你阿倒果為因啦, 緊係信心崩潰先,然後先超通啦...

嘉芙蓮 提到...

i,
noone said printing money will have direct relationship with hyperinflation and neither do buying gold simply becoz of that. I am not a MA expert like Joe so wont comment on his confidence model. My view is, the deflation of credit market or credit collapses causes the loss of confidence in currency which drive down money demand, and government reacts with massive printing to keep the government and its obligations continued; as people are expecting prices to rise further in the future, this drives up the velocity further. There are tonnes of debates over this, just the argument between deflationists and hyperinflationists, can keep going forever. There is no simple or single answer. Lets not drill to the formula as that data to use for calculation are debatable.