2011年6月29日 星期三

超通、戰爭與物資短缺




感謝指數兄的留言,提及一些未曾深入講過問題──超通!超通是否如一般人所想,四周會發生打家劫舍,殺人放火的事呢?

先看看今天發生超通的津巴布韋,根據網上找到的罪案率資料,有人說高,有人說低,可能是統計方法不同,但根據聯合國調查全球十大凶殺犯罪率國家,(http://shuju.xingzhiguanli.com/show.asp?id=851)。津國十甲不入,十甲中很多是南美國家,如巴西、哥倫比亞,這些地方都沒有發生超通。另外,香港紅十字會的義工報告中,有一位梁順華2009年曾前往津巴布韋,回來後在報告中形容津國人「友善」。(詳情可看香港紅十字會網頁)

當然,一如其他非洲國家般,津國的罪案率一定不會低,並非甚麼樂土,但發生的可能多數是小案。人只會為大財而殺人放火,貨幣大幅貶值了,今日搶來的錢,可能明天就不能用,津國人還有甚麼大財給人搶?所以凶殺案全球十名不入!

相反,津國的經濟活動如常,只是貨幣貶值很快,做買賣非常不便,從前的儲蓄今日通通化為烏有。津國黃金藏量豐富,於是陸續有人到河裡淘金,用來做交易工具,紙幣不能用,黃金充當了交易工具的角色,何解會出現此情況,我在精華文章中已解釋過。為何不能以物易物?我在給指數兄的留言中亦講解了。

何種情況下,黃金的價值會大跌,出現指數兄說的「黃金換不到奶粉」情況呢?那就是物資嚴重短缺,或生命得不到何任保障下,例如:

1/ 極端的暴政:如文化大革命,不過在此種情況下,其他的投資類別亦一樣會出事,股票、債券、紙幣無一幸免。文革期間,買東西不是有錢就可以,還要有政府發行的物資券,買布要有布券,買衣車要有衣車券等。不過,這亦不代表黃金沒有用,有看過電影《長恨歌》嗎?這是作者王安憶深入搜集資料而寫的作品,很多內容附合舊上海風貌,其中有一段講到女主角在文革其間未婚懷孕,怕不容於當時社會,於是要找個男人假結婚,男人的姐姐萬分不願意,但女主角拿出一條金條後,對方即同意。

2/ 住在戰爭區域或非常接近戰區:因為生產力受到戰爭破壞,可維持生命的基本物資價值最高,有黃金亦換不到蘿白。不過,其他投資亦一樣沒有任何價值。津國沒有發生戰爭,生產力仍在,超通前跟超通後,生產力沒有太大落差,只是各種產品之間的交換因貨幣貶值而出現問題,所以黃金的價值以飛快速度上升, 1937-1980年的巴西超通,1945-1946年匈牙利超通,1920年代德國超通等,皆是佼佼者。

黃金白銀不是沒有風險,像Now兄所說,估中晒亦可能輸,我非常同意,天災人禍,有很多是我們估計不到的,但其他投資類別又何嘗不是?股票有機會被取締,債券、紙幣亦會因國家陷入戰爭而作廢,保守的投資者,分散最重要!

16 則留言:

匿名 提到...

呢位匿名在這裡日鬧夜鬧.好心你放過你自已,我覺得你係好痛苦,人類社會係多元化,亦無人說服你買金買銀,祇不過觀点不同,你老哥路過此blog走過就算,呢度亦無人要你打救,你走過此blog之後,若你再猶豫不决,轉身回頭一看,你係會永遠變成石頭,困在這裡,不會再向前行地去接觸新東西.
唉!年青人,不要再自困啦!!!蒼海一声笑,浪淘盡,長城仍在,多少英雄折腰,祗付笑談中..哈哈

匿名 提到...

to the one above:
指數兄see some different views and let Joe discuss with him, i think you people learn from different sides, if you only think see one side of the cake, you never know what is behind the other side!
man!open your eyes!
PS, i think he brings out something that you need to pay attention, but i dont agree that stock is better than solid assets!

匿名 提到...

PS2, everyone knows the functions of gold, if you only want to hear the stuffs you feel comfortable, you are too immature!

Generation Next 提到...

To the one above, goldbugs do love quality anti gold arguments and very open to valid points, will change rapidly to the correct path. We do very much respect to anti-gold individuals, if you do follow the gold thread hoisted on 168.

That guy did mentioned some words that sparked some of the forgotten thoughts, but never brings in new arguments with supporting information that is sufficient to analysis.

Don't u see we are begging for more information from him? Of course in a harsh way as a response to his attitude.

Lisa 提到...

http://kiyosaki-blog.blogspot.com/

Rich Dad Robert Kiyosaki and his entire adviser team discuss how they have prepared for the coming depression:
- Year's supply of food
- Guns
- Gold & silver
- Cash on hand

They speak of the coming depression (inflationary or not it's going to happen), shutting down the credit card system, and higher taxes no matter what. Budget-cutting police forces promotes lawnessness.

What scares me now is these are not some local yocals on youtube speaking their wacky thoughts. Instead, these are calm, straight speaking, successful businessesmen in the know, telling us what they have done. We should take notice. They are prepared.

The following are 11 of the best Kiyosaki "sound bites" from the video below....

#1 "when the economy crashes as we predict"

#2 "the crowds come rushing in to buy gold and silver"

#3 "we could either go into a depression or we go to hyperinflation"

#4 "or we could also go to war"

#5 "buy a gun"

#6 "I'm preparing"

#7 "I'm prepared for the worst"

#8 "so come to my house and I'm armed and dangerous and I'll welcome you"

#9 "we have food, we have water, we have guns, gold and silver, and cash"

#10 "the credit card system shuts down, the world shuts down"

#11 "the supermarkets have less than 3 days supply"

Cefull 提到...

buy a gun...
It's illegal to have a gun in Hong Kong. The only arm I have is my fist.

satan_wong 提到...

黃金白銀不是沒有風險,像Now兄所說,估中晒亦可能輸,我非常同意,天災人禍,有很多是我們估計不到的,但其他投資類別又何嘗不是?股票有機會被取締,債券、紙幣亦會因國家陷入戰爭而作廢,保守的投資者,分散最重要! ---------------------------十分認同~~

匿名 提到...

~有人一再散播末日撚恐慌~都你同一個美國source~冇料到!

snowcat 提到...

有時諗,其實津巴布韋既人民直接放棄本國貨幣算數
直情用黃金/白銀/美元/歐元等做生意買賣
人民角度黎講

Joe 提到...

本年5月16日,津國已經宣佈推行金本位!不過就要退出IMF,因為IMF規定,貨幣與黃金掛勾的國家不可加入!

匿名 提到...

can someone tell us how would these possible events to be happening in US affects hongkong? will we see troubles in hk as well? as our hk dollar is packed to us$....

mimi

Joe 提到...

mimi,你的問題可以寫本書,留言好難寫!

Bill Hong 提到...

Joe: IMF = International Mafia Federation. courtesy from Gerald Celente.

Mimi: no one can probably answer your 6 trillion dollars question. even the insiders do not know how it going to play out. 1 thing i know for sure, chinese goods will not be shipped to USA walmarts when the dollar collapses.

Kidtheif: the Lindsey Williams DVDs have been uploaded in youtube from a generous user. go watch it when you have the spare time... u know he talks so much. another source we should check is Cliff High webbot. 20 bucks silver move is looming... his latest report will be released soon.
dvd link:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rFBI1bzWzJ4

kidthief 提到...

hey Bill, thanks for the link, will watch it asap

匿名 提到...

Joe, Bill:
i read from net and youtubes that in case of monetary collapse, there will be a hyperinflation...i m so worried, bcos i dun have my own flat, i rent from lord every month, i am afraid if hyperinflation takes place, my whole month salary would not be enough for monthly rent!!! but in 1929 german hyperinflation, rent only took about 0.1% down to 30%, and foods went up to 30% from 10%, it was terrible! if this happens in hongkong, we would be sleeping in streets!

mimi

匿名 提到...

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