2010年10月15日 星期五

JPM is in trouble ?

http://www.hbwar.com/news.php?id=3111

http://www.safehaven.com/article/18524/the-long-and-short-of-whats-happening-with-silver-these-days?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+safehaven%2Fall-articles+%28Safehaven+-+Most+Recent+Articles%29&utm_content=My+Yahoo

While it can be speculated on how short covering could impact the market, a short squeeze could feed upon itself as it attracts capital. In five trading days of buying a net 3286 contracts the price of silver rose by $1. However the commercial banks are still a net 62,127 contracts short so at that linear rate it would take them 94 trading days to cover with a silver price of roughly $117. The resulting losses would be around $15 billion. Of course markets aren't linear and after the second or third week of covering traders would begin to purposefully front run and squeeze the commercial shorts so it is unlikely that the positions could be covered that low or if at all.

http://t.sina.com.cn/shbhbzz
想等白银回调后再进货的投资者可能要失望了。摩根大通6万多空头合约亟待平仓。全平仓后价格上看117美元/盎司。需要连涨94个交易日,才能完成。当然 中间会稍微调整。为何摩根大通急待平仓?答案是白银存货不是3万吨了。去年还剩4千多吨。今年初是600 吨。现在是0。全给ETF 们 抢光了。

60k contract x 5000oz/contract = 300Million oz silver, almost 50% of annual silver production, OMG

10 則留言:

Joe 提到...

摩奸唔會有事既,最多咪違約賠錢羅,錢之嘛!佢冇,政府都大把,就係唔履行合約。不過,到時有事既係個市場,所有paper銀到時真係死得!

銀婆婆 提到...

以過往金銀價比五十倍看
摩摩的所作所為將令比率縮小至六倍
金仔會否被銀仔帶動爆升到咩位呢 ~~!?

:smile_o01:

Bosco 提到...

>以過往金銀價比五十倍看

No, this is only for recent years.

Real gold/silver ratio should be much smaller.

In the ground earth concentration: 1:17
Usual ratio during bimetalism: 1:10~20
Current above the ground volume: 2:1 !!!!!

Silver is highly surprised. Period.

Bosco 提到...

And JPM is raising debt of $4B

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/here-comes-scramble-capital-jpm-raise-4-billion

匿名 提到...

Joe先生,

你好,看了你們的文章,剛買了第一個楓葉金幣.有一事想請教,就是"原廠膠套"是否很重要?如果買冇膠套的,對回收或保值是否有很大影響?

另外,恒生現有2011 Australia 金幣出售,請問它的認受性是不是不及楓葉金幣呢?

如能賜教,非常感激.

Tony

Joe 提到...

膠套的價值較高只是中銀私下訂出的規則,當黃金的價值充份發揮後,有沒有膠套不構成問題。不放給中銀,仍有很多地方可以放。

不論是澳洲、加拿大或是美國、中國發行的金幣,一安士黃金就是一安士黃金,熔了還是一安士黃金,所以沒有分別,不存在認受性問題。

匿名 提到...

Dear Joe,

多謝你的寳貴意見.

Tony

小初哥 提到...

JP Morgan Wins: CFTC Position Limits Do Not Apply???

http://www.chrismartenson.com/blog/jp-morgan-wins-cftc-position-limits-do-not-apply-them/50663

&
http://www.cftc.gov/ucm/groups/public/@newsroom/documents/file/pl_factsheet.pdf

大家點睇?

Joe 提到...

預左係咁,CFTC都係佢地班人,否則就唔會而家至來講,廿年前應該做!

小初哥 提到...

我星期五果陣買左好多...資金所餘無幾...