tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-78145437647547291462024-03-26T20:08:00.717+08:00金甲蟲之路gogoldjoehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10379385900130057274noreply@blogger.comBlogger1263125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7814543764754729146.post-84622054846656526112020-07-21T11:50:00.001+08:002020-07-21T11:50:22.993+08:00我們搬家了<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjP6guQuK5EGUOi54x8-WoHJ4SY0u8UGezCa4pbkriE6zdAc1jGS2TP8Xj4tDqrEzg5qVT61N2innXh30xfi9g1Dbm6gPue33XUqCWCxkNaD2Lq7ivy8iapJP0uB0R3zbWeTgkYZNdYK7A/s1600/%25E8%259E%25A2%25E5%25B9%2595%25E6%2588%25AA%25E5%259C%2596+2020-07-21+%25E4%25B8%258A%25E5%258D%258811.40.40.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="907" data-original-width="1600" height="362" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjP6guQuK5EGUOi54x8-WoHJ4SY0u8UGezCa4pbkriE6zdAc1jGS2TP8Xj4tDqrEzg5qVT61N2innXh30xfi9g1Dbm6gPue33XUqCWCxkNaD2Lq7ivy8iapJP0uB0R3zbWeTgkYZNdYK7A/s640/%25E8%259E%25A2%25E5%25B9%2595%25E6%2588%25AA%25E5%259C%2596+2020-07-21+%25E4%25B8%258A%25E5%258D%258811.40.40.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">由於舊Blog文章很多,在網友協助下,小弟成立了獨立網站<a href="http://www.goldbuginvest.com/">www.goldbuginvest.com</a>,未來會逐步將小弟覺得好的精選文章移師至新網站。舊blog會繼續保留,但不會再貼出新文章,往後新文章只於新網站發表。(由於尚在建構內容,部份欄目未有內容,請耐心等候)</span>gogoldjoehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10379385900130057274noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7814543764754729146.post-20437522054762278772020-06-30T17:37:00.002+08:002020-06-30T21:38:17.411+08:00資金有限投資實金方法<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFlyzyUQIaW_MlFdTD7jY36XvzxjP_yzBvqVDUT0dWaO-QO_tUs8qKccEEiCUfrPmYhNo1COm4EkXyqiaW1ocyu6nGytlIJkl7nM2VieU63bDfW1hEot2v1Wgkkx3rrpIwEKyZSJ0SRrw/s1600/unnamed.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="318" data-original-width="512" height="394" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFlyzyUQIaW_MlFdTD7jY36XvzxjP_yzBvqVDUT0dWaO-QO_tUs8qKccEEiCUfrPmYhNo1COm4EkXyqiaW1ocyu6nGytlIJkl7nM2VieU63bDfW1hEot2v1Wgkkx3rrpIwEKyZSJ0SRrw/s640/unnamed.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiYVnxBVHFEEuaFVELjCGtCqHAWvTPTnhNFkLYlGzT5bAory-I3BrSDz8sm8I9AR2_GkJ8EfmHQTBx5o4z9-iVu2tZETeqHOCQupnM06fh5uQ7sxLadR-kY-mA7fr004BEv-v2GFrrsX-w/s1600/%25E8%259E%25A2%25E5%25B9%2595%25E6%2588%25AA%25E5%259C%2596+2020-06-29+%25E4%25B8%258A%25E5%258D%258810.07.53.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="850" data-original-width="1420" height="382" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiYVnxBVHFEEuaFVELjCGtCqHAWvTPTnhNFkLYlGzT5bAory-I3BrSDz8sm8I9AR2_GkJ8EfmHQTBx5o4z9-iVu2tZETeqHOCQupnM06fh5uQ7sxLadR-kY-mA7fr004BEv-v2GFrrsX-w/s640/%25E8%259E%25A2%25E5%25B9%2595%25E6%2588%25AA%25E5%259C%2596+2020-06-29+%25E4%25B8%258A%25E5%258D%258810.07.53.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjrd9jpLTscadAtp4mCsrXso2QKCxLH7_9kMmgmsBOD0aYHdCY1UuB26GUwI3VjLO9TTsyvy2xohkM34ZJ80mkEYycqzRW2nnOIH2V9_PBP-fy9hML8c4osVBz2cb8LE8Xfb23_jIqFMaQ/s1600/%25E8%259E%25A2%25E5%25B9%2595%25E6%2588%25AA%25E5%259C%2596+2020-06-30+%25E4%25B8%258B%25E5%258D%25885.11.45.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="544" data-original-width="1600" height="214" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjrd9jpLTscadAtp4mCsrXso2QKCxLH7_9kMmgmsBOD0aYHdCY1UuB26GUwI3VjLO9TTsyvy2xohkM34ZJ80mkEYycqzRW2nnOIH2V9_PBP-fy9hML8c4osVBz2cb8LE8Xfb23_jIqFMaQ/s640/%25E8%259E%25A2%25E5%25B9%2595%25E6%2588%25AA%25E5%259C%2596+2020-06-30+%25E4%25B8%258B%25E5%258D%25885.11.45.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">收到網友M Chan查詢投資實金方法。感謝賞識,其實小弟也是不斷學習之中,有時也時摸着石頭過河。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">經過今次疫症危機,全球央行都加速印錢承托資產價格,為黄金前景打下更堅固的上升基楚,當然短期波動難免,但長遠而言將是一項前景亮麗的投資。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">如果資金有限,分段吸納逐少買是個不錯策略。今年內金價升幅已不少,目前價位已經過連升數月,加上五月收市沒有收高於$1755,中長期走勢偏淡,七八月可能做出低位,有心吸納可等八月之後。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">投資黄金,實金是最安全穩陣的選擇,其他如黄金ETF、紙黄金、金股等等都有其本身風險。三月大跌市時,香港有紙黄金就突然停市買賣。另外,許多黄金衍生工具,例如槓桿黄金ETF追蹤的是期金,但期貨市場存在很多人為操作,經過四月期油跌至負數,我們更應小心為重。當油價變負,坊間的汽油可不會貼錢送你,可見實物與紙張存在根本的分別。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">資金有限可選擇一些輕量的金幣,十分一安士金幣現價才千多元。當然,溢價較高,因為用一安士做十個金幣的成本必較做一個高。但這類小金幣也有優勢,將來金價升至更高位,金額較小的小金幣,投資入門門檻低,反有吸引力,就像細價股一樣。不過,</span><span style="font-size: large;">小金幣供應一向緊,詳情可先至電詢問才前往購買,免浪費腳骨力。</span></div>
gogoldjoehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10379385900130057274noreply@blogger.com20tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7814543764754729146.post-37075679387860200762020-06-24T22:55:00.001+08:002020-06-24T22:55:38.587+08:00USLV七月退市<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: large;">瑞銀公佈,旗下三倍槓杆追蹤銀價的ETN將於七月退市,有買此股的投資者要留意,退市後會轉做櫃台買賣,投資者亦可以選擇於退市後以最後收市價贖回。詳情可看下列連結:</span></div>
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<a href="https://www.credit-suisse.com/about-us-news/en/articles/media-releases/credit-suisse-ag-announces-its-intent-to-delist-and-suspend-further-issuances-of-its-velocitysharestm-etns-202006.html">https://www.credit-suisse.com/about-us-news/en/articles/media-releases/credit-suisse-ag-announces-its-intent-to-delist-and-suspend-further-issuances-of-its-velocitysharestm-etns-202006.html</a>gogoldjoehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10379385900130057274noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7814543764754729146.post-31637049284040502762020-06-24T10:37:00.001+08:002020-06-24T12:18:37.915+08:00恒生停售金幣及金牌<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjw9CsYDKnf55snuNHLXahj9JWX1_zDGFe4EP7Qii9trZFw3hKz3fy2exfih0qgQIaOzkfaivU4e1Sez79YVEK02lWs-3PYmCYFLMHAMfUWooM_6XHQ-MNRJZf-wd6kvXv9DBAwYnKFUdI/s1600/%25E8%259E%25A2%25E5%25B9%2595%25E6%2588%25AA%25E5%259C%2596+2020-06-24+%25E4%25B8%258A%25E5%258D%258810.32.52.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="786" data-original-width="1600" height="314" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjw9CsYDKnf55snuNHLXahj9JWX1_zDGFe4EP7Qii9trZFw3hKz3fy2exfih0qgQIaOzkfaivU4e1Sez79YVEK02lWs-3PYmCYFLMHAMfUWooM_6XHQ-MNRJZf-wd6kvXv9DBAwYnKFUdI/s640/%25E8%259E%25A2%25E5%25B9%2595%25E6%2588%25AA%25E5%259C%2596+2020-06-24+%25E4%25B8%258A%25E5%258D%258810.32.52.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-size: x-large;">謝網友提供消息!恒生銀行網頁內的金幣及金牌沒有顯示賣出價,只餘買入價。小弟致電銀行查詢,職員說暫時沒有貨,亦不知何時有貨,故銀行只收不賣,九九金條則未受影響。記憶中,這次是小弟投資金銀以來,恒生首次不在網頁顯示賣出價。</span></div>
gogoldjoehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10379385900130057274noreply@blogger.com18tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7814543764754729146.post-27132171345986904572020-06-21T12:17:00.001+08:002020-06-21T22:19:47.237+08:00美股偏好 / 反彈繼續 / 或八月見低位<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: large;">經過上星期發展,美股繼續横行格局。周線走勢上,上周回落到紅色長期升軌通道內,仍然受制於2018年構成的黑色下壓線。馬田出了新分析,他認為上周最低見24843非常重要,此位找到支持點,可以一直繼續反彈(Bounce)至6月29日那個星期,之後才會回落至8月。上周需要收低於25759才會進一步走弱,我們仍然看到周線走勢上兩個阻力位,分別27346及27831,未來一周,支持位處於25200。</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhcwjUg7l-Bdt_GejoPKdYG9XeOq32Zf1dB69o6Lc4DnB1k_unLAoBmkqYBfAk8H6a1v67ex2nZlA6NWuz4PEazR5IhVGch-J2DetHS38Nsi_JuQkvjvG45bsRbgEY4lwt0RepGGesgAHY/s1600/%25E8%259E%25A2%25E5%25B9%2595%25E6%2588%25AA%25E5%259C%2596+2020-06-21+%25E4%25B8%258A%25E5%258D%258810.46.11.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="749" data-original-width="1600" height="294" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhcwjUg7l-Bdt_GejoPKdYG9XeOq32Zf1dB69o6Lc4DnB1k_unLAoBmkqYBfAk8H6a1v67ex2nZlA6NWuz4PEazR5IhVGch-J2DetHS38Nsi_JuQkvjvG45bsRbgEY4lwt0RepGGesgAHY/s640/%25E8%259E%25A2%25E5%25B9%2595%25E6%2588%25AA%25E5%259C%2596+2020-06-21+%25E4%25B8%258A%25E5%258D%258810.46.11.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">根據馬田的分析,道指很大機會於未來兩周再創高位。這個高位有機會比6月8日那星期做出的27580更高。細看會發現27580實際並未觸及黑色下壓線,故此未來兩周創更高的機會頗高。那麼8月會挫至那個位呢,小弟覺得會大約會在長期升軌下行線走到支持,即大約24500-25000點之間,然後會由低點上升至9月中(馬田早前預測的另一個轉變位),有投資美股的可就此作出適當部署。</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large; text-align: justify;">回顧近三個月走勢,馬田有些預測準確,有些失準,4月底的分析最準。4月29日創出自3月23日低位以來的新高後,他出了分析,小弟亦有出</span><a href="https://gogoldjoe.blogspot.com/2020/05/blog-post.html" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="color: blue; font-size: large;">分析</span></a><span style="font-size: large; text-align: justify;">,指出升跌規律可能打破。喚言之,如果6月做不出低於21917或下滑之低於3月23日的18213的第二個熊市訊號,那麼就要留待第四季做出第二個季度熊市訊號,以完成整個調整,目前看這種機會頗高。</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">不過值得留意是,隨着日子推移,熊市訊號已有變化,第二季季度熊市訊號處於21712,月度熊市訊號則是24809,如果這兩個位都沒有達成,意味着第四季出現熊市訊號的機會進一步提升。</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">市場很多看淡的分析都期望出現第二隻熊腳,但這是歷史上非常特殊的疫症市,對上一次疫症大流行已要數至1918年的西班牙流感。政府採取了非一般的財政措施,看看下圖是聯儲局的資產負債表,3月以來,短短三個月其規模已接近2009年至2014年三次量寬的總和,可見規模之巨大,坊間有不少對比分析,發現量寬規模與股市表現的關係呈正比。</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">不過跟三次QE主力購買國債相比,這次目標出現了重大轉變,印出來的錢直接投入到私人</span><a href="https://wealth.hket.com/article/2617135/%E3%80%90%E9%AB%98%E6%81%AF%E5%82%B5ETF%E3%80%91%E7%BE%8E%E8%81%AF%E5%84%B22.3%E8%90%AC%E5%84%84%E6%95%91%E5%8A%A9%E6%96%B9%E6%A1%88%E6%AD%B7%E5%8F%B2%E6%80%A7%E8%B2%B7%E5%9E%83%E5%9C%BE%E5%82%B5%20%E5%B0%8B%E5%AF%B6%E8%A6%81%E8%AC%B9%E6%85%8E" style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="color: blue;">債務市場</span></a><span style="font-size: large;">,買入不少垃圾債券ETF(股票)。這是繼日本央行入市買股後,第二間主要中央銀行直接介入私人資產市場。2009至2014的三次QE已經完全失敗了。簡單講,三次QE本來想透過放鬆銀行信貸,指望他們們對市場放鬆銀根,但銀行們沒有這樣做,而是跟隨聯儲局去買國債,結果幾年以來通脹長期處低位,實質經濟增長十分有限,卻激活金融市場,包括國債市場及股市,十年期美國國債孳息落至今年3月的世紀低位約0.5%。</span></div>
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錢流不到私人資產市場,卻因一個疫症出現拋售潮,聯儲局於是直接繞過金融機構及商業銀行,將錢撒進私人市場。這行動已經為下一次危機埋下伏線,再來的危機將會世紀性巨爆,小弟估計將會是一個集合美元危機、債務危機、股市爆破的大災難。當然這是個很大課題,足以寫幾篇長文論述。<span style="color: red;">若以聯儲局資產負債股市表現看,未來美股將會展開一個更大升浪,幅度將十分驚人,目前只是處於爆發前的震盪期。</span></div>
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PS:關於聯儲局的無限QE近日有輕微回落之象,或可解釋近日股市由6月8日星期回落的原因,但QE繼續的機會頗高,只是速度放緩而已,詳情可參考內地網民的<a href="https://3g.163.com/news/article/FFGAQ3KJ0539AT47.html?from=history-back-list"><span style="color: blue;">分析</span></a>。</div>
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gogoldjoehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10379385900130057274noreply@blogger.com19tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7814543764754729146.post-5963505942970430022020-06-21T10:16:00.003+08:002020-06-21T10:16:57.471+08:00長城銀條有兩種<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjzd6cm6YvYprJp-PUc1PqsYye_ax6wPcXbiPGapn0L1by_DdhyqpsPq1K1LlRbIhuF5_KjetAznGsaB91I4ZO0KOi1iw9x0hBOjBfyWWOPFUcOD-RNyKrTIrlWuUqeB-YbsZI9JkXUaVs/s1600/20200326_224814_Film1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1452" data-original-width="1600" height="580" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjzd6cm6YvYprJp-PUc1PqsYye_ax6wPcXbiPGapn0L1by_DdhyqpsPq1K1LlRbIhuF5_KjetAznGsaB91I4ZO0KOi1iw9x0hBOjBfyWWOPFUcOD-RNyKrTIrlWuUqeB-YbsZI9JkXUaVs/s640/20200326_224814_Film1.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjwG-w_hYRGye3aLqRU05mWnpZCYik1_Xpa6rOZompFD201sexY8fqtixTQapj9qmm09D7FGS_Q84M2fJNnkzpahjWO-gVnv6IiDTEX1_sbvsoNBNzjxT3Yh5uXAmoVl2cv0gTf5F9Sgmw/s1600/CSS34_1489_1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="357" data-original-width="500" height="454" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjwG-w_hYRGye3aLqRU05mWnpZCYik1_Xpa6rOZompFD201sexY8fqtixTQapj9qmm09D7FGS_Q84M2fJNnkzpahjWO-gVnv6IiDTEX1_sbvsoNBNzjxT3Yh5uXAmoVl2cv0gTf5F9Sgmw/s640/CSS34_1489_1.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">有網友問,家中找到沒有加拿大鑄幣局楓葉標誌的長城銀條,有何不同?上圖是舊有長城銀條,沒有</span><span style="font-size: large;">加拿大鑄幣局楓葉標誌,現已停產,買少見少,價值跟新款沒有分別,金銀都是以重量計算價值。歷史上,銀行發行金銀產品,有時會找不同鑄造廠鑄造,如上圖的匯豐一兩金塊,亦已停產多年。</span></div>
gogoldjoehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10379385900130057274noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7814543764754729146.post-68743761247552100982020-06-16T16:13:00.000+08:002020-06-16T16:13:51.617+08:00美股24500-27500横行機會頗高<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: large;">股市升跌受很多因素影響,稍一沒留神就會看漏,只見樹目不見森林。經歷上周大跌1800點,周五反彈近500點,周一再挫,周二又由跌轉升。承接上文,如果只看日線及周線,美股目前處於甚麼狀況?長期是升是跌?不甚了了。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">看看月線走勢,會更了解長期的走勢,作出長期部署。看下圖,新冠股災後三個月,道指已重回2009年金融海嘯後所建構出來的紅色上升通道。但當升至2018年突破出來的上升軌上方時,不久就被打回頭(上周四大跌1800點), 返回基本上升軌。美股似乎未有力突破這條下壓線,根據走勢運行,大約到2021年5月才能突破這條線。</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">未來走勢相信較大機會在基本上升軌上下橫行,上下波幅約三千點,底部約24500,頂部約27500,如果將月線走勢套入日線,會更加仔細,從下圖可見,基本通道上行線約27000點,中軸約25600,下行底線約24000,未來或會在這三條線來回數次。如果升破上行線,大家就要小心。一如2020年下半年升越2018年建構的下壓線,出現了新冠股災。不過要留意,隨時間推移,三線都會慢慢地向上,數值亦會改變。</span></div>
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gogoldjoehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10379385900130057274noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7814543764754729146.post-3577665167197897912020-06-13T11:19:00.000+08:002020-06-13T14:57:03.495+08:00美股下挫<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEicewWTyHlW69KJcARmL4eXpEZNwpx-VULK6oAGl4MzESABEbVjX64loFgzEpHRqDVvIrh8Qs1zHaMvYrgYdsZSyEzGZl-eYLBRNcIpGxd-OobN8de0pbiAGX1jg2WBBFYxbHg-xcKNL6o/s1600/%25E8%259E%25A2%25E5%25B9%2595%25E6%2588%25AA%25E5%259C%2596+2020-06-13+%25E4%25B8%258A%25E5%258D%25889.42.30.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="749" data-original-width="1600" height="294" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEicewWTyHlW69KJcARmL4eXpEZNwpx-VULK6oAGl4MzESABEbVjX64loFgzEpHRqDVvIrh8Qs1zHaMvYrgYdsZSyEzGZl-eYLBRNcIpGxd-OobN8de0pbiAGX1jg2WBBFYxbHg-xcKNL6o/s640/%25E8%259E%25A2%25E5%25B9%2595%25E6%2588%25AA%25E5%259C%2596+2020-06-13+%25E4%25B8%258A%25E5%258D%25889.42.30.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">過去一星期美股又經歷了驚濤駭浪的一週,星期四受到疫情第二浪憂慮及經濟前景問題,一晚挫超過1800點,是三月以來最大單日跌幅。但昨晚又回升477點,守住了馬田近日分析出來的支持位25220。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">目前走勢仍然利淡,不過經過三月股災以來的兩個月觀察,小弟覺得有幾點值得留意:</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">一,技術分析在這次跌市及升市中不大可靠,如上篇所論,傳統熊市波浪理論早前已被打破。日線計的五浪後沒有接着出現三浪下挫,而是升得更高。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">二,升跌主要受疫情消息主宰,四五月幾次明顯上跌都是因為肺災藥物研究有突破或疫情趨緩。當然也包括下跌,例如今個星期四大跌1800點。明顯地,馬田稱這次為「新冠股災」頗為貼切。反而經濟數據及因素影響相對小。故此分析時一定要留意疫情發展。這方面小弟比較樂觀,理由很簡單,歷史上長期活在瘟疫下不是人類生活的常態,故看好股市往後走勢。當然這方面一定有人不同意,人有悲觀樂天之分,小弟一位朋友自從農歷年初三後都沒有出過家門,小弟也不明白有甚麼可怕?香港每天那麼多遊行示威,聚集那麼多人,但一個感染個案也沒有!</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">三,三月股災剛完,未有足夠時間給股市運行,看不到明顯走勢的趨勢,不過經過兩個多月發展,無論日線或周線,都看到一條明顯的上升軌出現了,兩圖都是參考馬田的技術分析圖畫出來,而剛好今周的下滑又剛好止於上升軌下行線。當然更長期的月線走勢由於只發展了兩個半月,看不出明顯走勢。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">未來會如何發展?馬田周四新出的專業分析,他預計如果星期四收低於25905,則周五利淡偏熊。八九月有一個低位,只要今個星期周收於25220以下。</span><span style="font-size: large;">另外他的模組分析,六月的季度熊市訊號在21712點,月度熊市訊號則在24809。結合他四月尾分析,如果六月跌至兩個點數,則完成兩季熊市訊號目標,調整完結。而低位有機會在八九月間出現,之後會升至2022年。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">結果,星期四收低於25905(大跌1800點),但昨晚周五卻沒有收低於25220。25220是一個關鍵點數,因為是上行通道重要支持位,如果上行延續,往後支持位只會愈來愈高,要跌破此位只會愈來愈難,但昨晚收市沒有跌穿。故此小弟以為可能出現另一種發,事實上,4月29日創出高位後,馬田提到六月未必做出熊訊號,而是留待第四季。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">美股不一定大升或大跌,未來可能是一種横行格局,這亦切合一般股災後的走勢模式。其實這種模式更多時候才是股市的常態,時間可長達六個月至九個月,甚至一整年,例如2018年尾大調整後,2019年頭三季幾乎都在25000-27000區間横行。2015年從年頭到第三季末,接近九個月時間都在17500-18300區間横行。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">這種上落格局,波幅約在$1500點到2000點中間,只要確定區間位置,高賣低買,亦不難炒,以相應心態應付,不過份樂觀或悲觀,不過於貪心就是了。致於區間,小弟覺得可能是25000-27500之間,因為27500是股災前馬田提及過一個重要下跌支持位,現在反過來變成重要阻力位。</span></div>
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gogoldjoehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10379385900130057274noreply@blogger.com12tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7814543764754729146.post-16105520880178141032020-06-06T21:00:00.002+08:002020-06-06T21:00:50.488+08:00美股升穿27000點<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<span style="font-size: large;">歷史上每個股災都是獨特的,難以用恆常的方程式去分析、理解,起碼近月美股走勢可以確立這點。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">經過一個月發展,來到六月初,昨晚6月5日星期五,道指大漲,升穿27000點,並於之上收市(周收)。先看技術走勢,由1月17日及2月12日兩個高位構成的下行線經已全部被打破。另一方面,上月中坊間有不少分析用上波浪理論,認為道指將以典形的反彈五波+下跌三波去達成整個熊市目標,但過了日線第五波後,卻沒有再往下跌。暫時來說,傳統熊市波浪理論亦已經失效。(當然亦可能是一個更長跌市,五浪反彈三浪下跌會以周線運行,但如果以周線走,現在才第一或二浪,第五浪豈非要升至很高位?似不合理)</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">温故知新,看看小弟5月16日寫的<a href="https://gogoldjoe.blogspot.com/2020/05/blog-post.html">分析</a>,馬田的預測相當準確,經過4月29日創出新高,果然整個模式反彈,經過五月初下跌,道指由5月11日那星期的最底位升至昨晚最高位,共升了4549點。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">不過在昨晚之前,馬田仍然看淡,認為目前市況只是三個月的反彈浪,未出現牛市訊號,6月3日的專業分析中,他說道指有機會不能升穿周線牛市訊號27000點。另外在5月29日當道指升至25000以上時,他圖表分析(上圖)指出未升過26250,仍然處於弱勢。</span><span style="font-size: large;">結果26250及27000兩個重要阻力位都在最近三天雙雙被擊穿。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">相信網友最想知是往後會如何發展?今日馬田出了分指,短短幾句,指出道指周五收低於27272「或者」就是反彈頂部(原文是reaction high may be in place),但之前一天他寫的分析又指,如果下星期升過這個星期的高位,道指會於餘下兩星期升得更高。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">小弟覺得美股發展(上升)有點超出馬田預期,部份分析存在矛盾,例如如果27000是一個週線牛市訊號,那麼周五就算修低於27272,只要高於27000,亦是利好。故此,我們需自行再分析。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">按目前走勢,連剛過去的一星期,道指已經連升三星期,未來兩週下跌機會較高,需整固後才能再上。不過市場很多時非理性,就如三月的非理性拋售潮一樣,未必按正常規律運行,正如4月13號那星期升至股災後高位後,原本馬田預計之後數星期會再探底,誰料4月29日卻再創高位,打破了升跌韻律,令模式反轉。馬田當時提出三種可能發展,一是五月再探底,跌至17200區間,或六月底跌至21917,或者有機會整個模式已經反轉,進入cycle inversion,週期反轉,由跌轉升。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">回顧馬田的分析,小弟覺得不能全套接收,這是一個史詩式前所未有的「疫症市」,阻力位、支持位永遠都有,無論指數升或跌到甚麼位。除了參考技術價位,亦需配合疫症發展週期,道指近年數次較大幅度上升都與疫情有關,包括吉利德藥廠證實瑞德西韋可加速病人復元。小弟認為未來再現三月股災的機會不高,很明顯疫情不斷緩和,未能半年,我們將會看到疫苗出現,經濟解封,往後還可能有報復式消費,這些都是支持股市上升的動力。</span><span style="font-size: large;">策略上,如果有餘錢的,可分段入市,買入優質美國藍籌大股。</span></div>
gogoldjoehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10379385900130057274noreply@blogger.com9tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7814543764754729146.post-89710096278979686112020-05-18T12:34:00.004+08:002020-05-18T13:53:00.738+08:00白銀中期前景勝黄金 / 可吸納!<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: large;">承接上文,金銀都出現了明顯突破格局。不過小弟認為中期看,未來半年白銀的走勢將更勝黄金。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">先看看馬田近期對白銀分析(白銀他一向較少講),5月2日他在專業頁提及(感謝友人青哥提供資料),五月是白銀特有目標,是一個主要轉變位。白銀有機會再試支持位,之後會升市進入七月,七月將有指標性變化(Directional Change)。白銀的走勢模式會近似黄金,如果五月升破四月高位($15.843),白銀將會升至六月高位,之後七月可能測試支持位,七月是一個強大目標。六月的</span><span style="font-size: large;">指標性變化(Directional Change)意味着2021年1月將是白銀的危機月,黄金就會延至2021年2月。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">馬田的分析很多時留下很闊的空間,參考時要留意,所謂高位低位只是一種相對,例如假設七月白銀回調,那只是相對六月低,並不代表會再試3月低位。喚言之,金銀的升勢已經確立,下個有可能出現較大明顯調整位要去到2021年初才會出現。不過金銀二選一,中期而言,白銀贏面更加大,而且這個訊號十分明顯。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">首先看看反映兩者升勢對比的金銀比率(Gold Silver Ratio),自從2011年見低位30後,白銀走勢便一直落後,直至2016年黄金觸底回升,白銀都沒有多大起色,就算2019年5月黄金明顯突破,白銀亦一樣回升乏力,剛過去的2020年3月就出現大跌,令金銀比率升至歷史高位,更不是一般高位,而是可以追至三百年前,1930年代歷史高位都只不過是100,3月竟然升至最高126.5,跟石油的歷史性負油價具有同等意義。近期小弟已多次跟幾名有投資的友人提及,如此遍離常軌的比率必然會糾正,五月走勢證明看法正確。</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEipFztNY-H2c11m_xIEE_FuIt0SAj-2XDwWxGtb9ZXvAuISxbDSaaFvGQ7Tp-LXSdtl0XU1oYgi2Ha8Ed408Fk-PylVscIZy4hLjFa-ATosDcULt9ikYVH4ZnBHbPM2zT3Ys8uuUdUq6w8/s1600/figure1.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="534" data-original-width="900" height="374" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEipFztNY-H2c11m_xIEE_FuIt0SAj-2XDwWxGtb9ZXvAuISxbDSaaFvGQ7Tp-LXSdtl0XU1oYgi2Ha8Ed408Fk-PylVscIZy4hLjFa-ATosDcULt9ikYVH4ZnBHbPM2zT3Ys8uuUdUq6w8/s640/figure1.gif" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">目前這個比率已經拉回之中,拉回了多少呢?看看下圖,比率速升由97開始升至126(三月白銀大跌令比率急升),上周拉回至104,拉回的比例還不到50%,一半也未走完,而且拉回至97仍然是歷史偏高,再落空間仍然很大。</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjBBZWGtKUfspICgahQeN54McVJb9kjUc1-EsmYdykVzjUoco-63EOW85R1EwgA6KhjWhyphenhyphenpuLWvYB5q5ysr1hGaDbjDRHaMHMYrh3lIH6WYM4L1SRhnsYYVNnsXRMqtcZ4y25oD3pPcs3E/s1600/%25E8%259E%25A2%25E5%25B9%2595%25E6%2588%25AA%25E5%259C%2596+2020-05-16+%25E4%25B8%258B%25E5%258D%258810.04.06.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1092" data-original-width="1488" height="464" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjBBZWGtKUfspICgahQeN54McVJb9kjUc1-EsmYdykVzjUoco-63EOW85R1EwgA6KhjWhyphenhyphenpuLWvYB5q5ysr1hGaDbjDRHaMHMYrh3lIH6WYM4L1SRhnsYYVNnsXRMqtcZ4y25oD3pPcs3E/s640/%25E8%259E%25A2%25E5%25B9%2595%25E6%2588%25AA%25E5%259C%2596+2020-05-16+%25E4%25B8%258B%25E5%258D%258810.04.06.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">第二,讓我們看看實貨的供應,從<a href="https://www.facebook.com/groups/silverlegion/">白銀戰隊FB</a>提供圖表,反映近月實銀與期銀的價格出現了嚴重的偏離。各大實銀零售商標示的銀價已升至$227(直至今早),即$28美元,但回收價只是$128(直至今早),約$16.3美元。回收價與零售價差價巨大至$12美元,是小弟投資實金實銀以來最高。參考本Blog資料,是2010年時差價的4倍,反映實物需求勝過2010年。</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjpMmUqsdOXKK2h1bk1Q_ikdnYd2QE2zSDH-1zWGmjmQthDekxb9tkpkzE637C8SR-1jD4SwYHUcYfRbYU2dxEbl2UkTnGb7IWaq1t0R1xT4uFKc0AMNsSSBFlPEH_4rWSpuyPYIVuzc-I/s1600/%25E8%259E%25A2%25E5%25B9%2595%25E6%2588%25AA%25E5%259C%2596+2020-05-17+%25E4%25B8%258B%25E5%258D%25884.39.56.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1018" data-original-width="1374" height="474" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjpMmUqsdOXKK2h1bk1Q_ikdnYd2QE2zSDH-1zWGmjmQthDekxb9tkpkzE637C8SR-1jD4SwYHUcYfRbYU2dxEbl2UkTnGb7IWaq1t0R1xT4uFKc0AMNsSSBFlPEH_4rWSpuyPYIVuzc-I/s640/%25E8%259E%25A2%25E5%25B9%2595%25E6%2588%25AA%25E5%259C%2596+2020-05-17+%25E4%25B8%258B%25E5%258D%25884.39.56.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiwIankQWn4J_DpJ3YFX3xKvYFafmHSZOTLtTuIKH2QKVxRlBfAA5EBBT240vCtirvSfQssCLguXtJwUjWJgskQrXOa077m0dXHI1ZNToAwhFI9UBvna7S-VbFlF-Lfz61F52WktyA3ePc/s1600/%25E8%259E%25A2%25E5%25B9%2595%25E6%2588%25AA%25E5%259C%2596+2020-05-17+%25E4%25B8%258B%25E5%258D%25888.47.32.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="570" data-original-width="1416" height="254" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiwIankQWn4J_DpJ3YFX3xKvYFafmHSZOTLtTuIKH2QKVxRlBfAA5EBBT240vCtirvSfQssCLguXtJwUjWJgskQrXOa077m0dXHI1ZNToAwhFI9UBvna7S-VbFlF-Lfz61F52WktyA3ePc/s640/%25E8%259E%25A2%25E5%25B9%2595%25E6%2588%25AA%25E5%259C%2596+2020-05-17+%25E4%25B8%258B%25E5%258D%25888.47.32.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">從實物價看到,回收價貼近期銀價,但零售價則偏離巨大。跟不正常的金銀比率一樣,未來半年會糾正過來,從上圖的歷史走勢可以頗確定此點。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">巨大差價會做成多種後果。一,實銀零售商的存貨將快速下降,因為低回收價不利實銀回流,貨源短缺上可能誘使他們加價,如果需求繼續,鑄銀商在利益誘因下會抄高白銀近期合約,即現貨價。出現現貨貴過期貨的現象,如果情況持續,但白銀供應仍然跟不上,有可能推高回收價,造成逆差價(相反是正差價,即現價低於期貨)的現象持續,這樣會</span><span style="font-size: large;">誘使更多期貨合約要求實物交割,對期銀市場將造成一定衝擊。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">二,相於石油,儲存金銀相對容易處理,不存在庫存飽和問題,故此期貨發行商要麼有足夠白銀供應交割,要麼快速提升期貨銀價,誘使期銀持有人改以現金交割。三,長遠而言,銀礦公司看到實貨市場有巨大差價,利之所在,可能不再根據期銀價出售白銀,要求加價。</span><span style="font-size: large;">經過近月震動,白銀前景已經非常明顯地扭轉,機會難得,經過近日的上升,升幅不少,但中長期而言,目前銀價仍處偏低水平。</span></div>
gogoldjoehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10379385900130057274noreply@blogger.com30tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7814543764754729146.post-20843343945726073082020-05-18T10:39:00.001+08:002020-05-18T10:43:06.389+08:00金銀突破阻力位<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: large;">經過三月跟隨股市下挫,四月整固,近兩星期,金價銀價出現明顯的突破格局,先看看技術走勢。先看黄金,上週無論在周線或月線(雖未走完)都升破了上行通道的阻力位,白銀亦一樣,升破了2013年起的長期下行線(藍線),由於經歷了三月的大跌$12以下,小弟試畫技術線,走勢上變成了觸及2013年建構的下行線底部,見底訊號十分明顯。上升阻力位降至$18.43, 上望$28。藍線下行線的阻力位$17.5已不具意義。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">馬田近兩星期亦出了相關金銀分析,金價走勢上,他認為上周五升至最高是1755,將會挑戰1789.5及1798兩個月線阻力位(五月),由於四月最高是1788.8,故此要反轉(變成五月收市低於四月)不難。不過,就算低於1789.5及1798亦無損上升之勢,因為只要高於1755,就已經連續兩個月做出牛市訊號。只要五月收高於1755,意味着六月將會升至一個高位,到六月底才會回調進入七月。更遠看,這個上升模式代表這個升浪將會延續至2021年進入第一季之時。</span><span style="font-size: large;">不過如果五月收低於1754或收低於四月收市位1704,代表六月或七月將見低位(相對),故此五月的收市位十分關鍵。</span></div>
gogoldjoehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10379385900130057274noreply@blogger.com8tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7814543764754729146.post-68435385879515727612020-05-16T12:27:00.002+08:002020-05-16T21:39:25.677+08:00美股好淡爭持<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhWO3sMXsHIRNwKPO4Qg4TJegOMi3Pt0F84bVaQKAlswt1AbaiFVG7z_7Xg9IOipgBL8TXPIoic8xm48Wkj9K51F6rMiUrEHEx6ORZwfayVUqvEy44mVxaCQwMka2faX3p9ghnH-MrXQK4/s1600/%25E8%259E%25A2%25E5%25B9%2595%25E6%2588%25AA%25E5%259C%2596+2020-05-16+%25E4%25B8%258A%25E5%258D%258810.55.38.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="775" data-original-width="1600" height="304" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhWO3sMXsHIRNwKPO4Qg4TJegOMi3Pt0F84bVaQKAlswt1AbaiFVG7z_7Xg9IOipgBL8TXPIoic8xm48Wkj9K51F6rMiUrEHEx6ORZwfayVUqvEy44mVxaCQwMka2faX3p9ghnH-MrXQK4/s640/%25E8%259E%25A2%25E5%25B9%2595%25E6%2588%25AA%25E5%259C%2596+2020-05-16+%25E4%25B8%258A%25E5%258D%258810.55.38.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-size: large; text-align: justify;">各位網友別來無恙!由於新菲傭因疫情仍被困鄉下,不能進入馬尼拉,故要小弟要負起姐姐工作,更新較慢,見諒!</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">不經不覺已來到五月中,投資市場仍然陰晴不定,美股自從3月23日跌至18140見小底後,已經回升至23000-24000區間,似升想升,但市場上不少分析認為即將出現第二波探底,即是熊市第二隻腳。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">先讓我們回顧馬田近月分析吧!經過3月探底,他出了分析,認為4月13日有機會創出高位,之後會回落至4月底低位,然後反彈至5月11號星期,然後再下滑至6月初。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">果然,4月13日那星期道指做了反彈以來最高的24264點,之後就回落,不過並沒有跟着馬田預計滑落至4月底低位,反而於4月29日創出了24764新高,打破了他預測的升跌規律。故此原本認為美股將二次探底的他修改了預測。</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">首先在升跌規律上目標會反轉,喚言之,4月27號那星期創出高位後,會滑落至5月11號的星期,之後回升至6月初,然後再度調整至6月底,以完成整個股災下跌浪。</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">下跌浪會跌到多低呢?馬田給出幾條預測路線。由於他電腦仍然顯示第二季(四五六月)是轉變點,故此,理想地(他個人意見)是於6月底造出一個3月23日更低的低位,可能是17200或最差的15000。不過,他亦有說,如果失敗,沒有二次探底,那就意味着要到第四季才會做出低位,即是說七八九月都不會二次探底了。</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">另外他有提到,下探17200及15000區間應是四五月之內,如果沒有做出來,或者會於6月底做出一個略低於21917的季度低位,如此也會達成他電腦連續兩季熊市訊號目標。</span><span style="font-size: large;">他同時又兩次提及,如果4月13日星期的高位於4月底被破,有機會是週期模式反轉(Cycle Inversion), 即是已經見底,由跌轉升。</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">他在多篇分析中都提及5月中將會出現很大波動。過去兩星期美股高位上落頗大,從上星期跌至昨晚收市,道指從4月29日高位已下滑1079點,但近兩日又喘定了,昨晚收市後,他又出了分析,說如果昨晚收市低於23645,下星期將會很容易再跌,不過昨晚收於23685,又高於他分析的利淡位。</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">23645大約剛好是日線走勢上由1月17建構的下行線支持位,同樣是周線走勢下行通道支持位,喚言之,下星期暫時利好,因為日線及周線都收於支持位上方。不過,小弟估計波動仍然在所難免,如果你還未入市,最安全方法是於6月最後一星期分段做好美股。</span></div>
gogoldjoehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10379385900130057274noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7814543764754729146.post-30608748108252636662020-04-08T16:24:00.002+08:002020-04-08T19:41:48.497+08:00CDC推高死亡人數<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhgEhmfe276E5wXQqhlrSfHuitg2RhR_tqgW4vWZNhulKyJOpHn5rO4BLeHOaTP1XsaIlpWnTJTVndl26v7CF4TaWcm4TMCpx_wPqcHK0Nza6DN6EQctw8K_rIa0S8FTxW3JjHcL5QsFcM/s1600/%25E8%259E%25A2%25E5%25B9%2595%25E6%2588%25AA%25E5%259C%2596+2020-04-07+%25E4%25B8%258B%25E5%258D%25884.59.48.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1084" data-original-width="1404" height="494" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhgEhmfe276E5wXQqhlrSfHuitg2RhR_tqgW4vWZNhulKyJOpHn5rO4BLeHOaTP1XsaIlpWnTJTVndl26v7CF4TaWcm4TMCpx_wPqcHK0Nza6DN6EQctw8K_rIa0S8FTxW3JjHcL5QsFcM/s640/%25E8%259E%25A2%25E5%25B9%2595%25E6%2588%25AA%25E5%259C%2596+2020-04-07+%25E4%25B8%258B%25E5%258D%25884.59.48.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">上面是馬田醫生朋友傳給他的醫生指引,由美國疫控中心(CDC)操作的國家重要數據系統。小弟找了英文系的朋友確認內容,大意說:</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">醫生於呈報死亡個案及領取死亡證時,如果寫病人死於冠狀病毒(Coronavirus),而不是指明是新冠病毒(Covid19),管理層就會要求醫生再調查是或不是,如填寫「可能是死於新冠病毒」,當局就不會再跟進,就當死於新冠。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">喚言之,如果寫死於新冠,醫生工作量沒那麼大,不需再細查。相反要做多很多工夫去查證是否死於新冠,否則不發死亡證。</span><span style="font-size: large;">CDC正用政策推高死於</span><span style="font-size: large;">新冠病毒(Covid19)的人數,鼓勵醫生將不是死於新冠病人也計入死於</span><span style="font-size: large;">新冠。流感的病源也會包括<a href="http://www.kmuh.org.tw/www/kmcj/data/10501/13.htm"><span style="color: blue;">冠狀病毒</span></a>,喚言之,死於冠狀病毒感染的流感亦很大機會計入死於新冠。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">同時各位網友有沒有留意,所有確診的名人,包括加拿大總理夫人,影星湯漢斯等等,究竟用了甚麼藥物治癒,我們一概不能從媒體上知道,難道此病可不藥而癒?我們只知道自我隔離、用呼吸機等等,然後沒多久就康復,行得走得了。非常詭異,用何藥?劑量如何?政府及主流媒體都不告訴你。</span></div>
gogoldjoehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10379385900130057274noreply@blogger.com52tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7814543764754729146.post-87988340022496069232020-04-08T15:31:00.001+08:002020-04-08T18:02:34.698+08:00美股見底了沒有?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<span style="font-size: large;">3月25日小弟根據馬田電腦(不是馬田個人意見)分析,出文建議當天入市搏反彈,並將目標指向4月6日的今個星期,他的電腦果然出色,道指從當日低位反彈已有相當幅度,今週一度升穿23000點。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">會否再沉底,並創新低?馬田最近一次是於4月6日出文分析。認為如果今個星期升至高位,味意之後會下滑至4月底,相反,如果今周繼續低位,則會反彈至月底。目前出現了前者預測,如果今個星期道指升過22596.06(已達標),預料之後下滑。</span><span style="font-size: large;">多低呢?馬田看最淡是跌穿19175,會下試17500至15500區間,因為一個大恐慌下,資產價格可以跌去51%。這與他預測「最少20%調整」相當距離,但馬田不認為失準,因為他是說「最少」調整20%。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">看馬田這種分析必需小心地前後對比,有時會有茅盾,而且有時間誤差。例如他在3月19日(星期四)出文分析,若當日收高於20490(最後收於20087,不達標),味意會暫停下跌,並反彈越過3月17日建構出來的下跌線(上圖紫色線),阻力位在22338-22178,他並預計道指應該不能穿過這條下跌線,會進一步下試18140或17700-17200區間。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">結果道指一如他料,於3月23日下滑至18140左右就停止了,故馬田於3月24日分析中才稱3月23日低位是個理想低位(Idea Low)。不過,反彈出現的時間就並未如他所說,而是遲了一星期,另外,這個低位</span><span style="font-size: large;">不但迎來至今的反彈,更升過他說的紫線下跌線,保持線上至今達9個交易日。有沒有機會於4月餘下日子跌穿這條下跌線,並下滑至17500-15500區間?</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">小弟認為機會相對<span style="color: red;">較低</span>!預測大市走勢時,除了參考馬田分析,亦要一同考慮其他因素,馬田分析亦有出錯或未達標的機會,我們必需自行判斷他那些預測的機會較高,那些是他個人意見,那些是他電腦預測,那些是基於技術分析,馬田最近亦有說,他個人意見經常出錯,敗給電腦Socrate預測。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">其中一次是2015年底,當年金價滑至$1070左右,馬田作出最差見$680的預測,當年小弟也很驚訝,可以去到這麼差嗎?結果沒有去到這麼差,金價於$1050左右便觸底,並回升至今。但小弟不會怪馬田預測不準,因為事實上基於技術分析,金價已跌穿所有牛市支持位,跌入沒有承托力的區間,而支持位只餘年走勢的$680。</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi7ENTXmWd0iGaaeb103LKswquHq0A3kbkn4vI8vGLQ45wJZSNk1h-oH1jZfcERVcTyjx-CCnnzkc1kOhsbCwhaYI4pHeXmaZRqIF-zbHe1lDiSf8eK8DxWId6exGvmIJlqDU5qu3Toplk/s1600/%25E8%259E%25A2%25E5%25B9%2595%25E6%2588%25AA%25E5%259C%2596+2020-04-06+%25E4%25B8%258B%25E5%258D%25882.52.38.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="870" data-original-width="1468" height="374" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi7ENTXmWd0iGaaeb103LKswquHq0A3kbkn4vI8vGLQ45wJZSNk1h-oH1jZfcERVcTyjx-CCnnzkc1kOhsbCwhaYI4pHeXmaZRqIF-zbHe1lDiSf8eK8DxWId6exGvmIJlqDU5qu3Toplk/s640/%25E8%259E%25A2%25E5%25B9%2595%25E6%2588%25AA%25E5%259C%2596+2020-04-06+%25E4%25B8%258B%25E5%258D%25882.52.38.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">情況跟這次一樣,道指已跌穿所有牛市支持位,跌出了2009年建構的上升軌道,最大支持位在15500左右,那是年度支持位。小弟非常尊重每一個看淡的意見,技術分析上他們沒有錯,但我們亦必需留意,道指(也包括所有於這次股災中同跌的各樣資產,包括石油、黄金、白銀等等)已達到多項重要的反轉訊號。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">1. 馬田提及的21000-22000低危險度買入區間已到,如要要跌至15500左右,意味還有六七千點的跌幅,那麼21000-22000也變成危險買入位了。而這個買入區間是他電腦建議,非他個人意見。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">2. 道指三月股災已擦新了不少歷史紀錄,包括10日內四次跌熔斷,這是自1987年以來第二次,對上一次已經要數到1997年亞洲金融風暴。另外,以單周跌幅計,三月曾有過一周跌17%紀錄,已超越1930年大嘯條,僅次於2008年雷曼兄弟破產的18.8%。小弟不敢說這些紀綠絕後,但肯定是空前,如果要由現有位置再下試15500區間,可能要再觸發多兩三回熔斷,甚至超越雷曼事件的單周跌幅。你覺得合乎常理嗎?</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">3. 這次股災是史無前例的因疫症而起,連馬田也說他畢生未見過這種疫症市,當然也包括小弟及所有網友。那麼我們必需了解疫症史的特點。小弟初步理解是傳統技術分析在這次跌市中起不了多少作用,馬田預測及小弟預測的反彈位基本上都沒有出現過。今天(4月8日)武漢解封了,疫症市特點是完全的情緒化主導,完美的人生恐慌。但其最大敵人是時間,中國的抗疫經驗已經預視,很快會結束,人們回復理性後,重新計劃將來,很大機會促成一個報復性入市爆買。這點在馬田多篇文章亦有提及,只是論述跟小弟不一樣而已。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">看看最高的圖,小弟試畫了出兩條上升線,似乎已開始建構一條新的敗部復活上升軌了,當然這只是很初步,未算精準,畢竟現在只是4月初,而且只是日線圖,要等待周線,甚至月線的進一步走勢才能確認上升軌。</span></div>
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<span style="color: red; font-size: large;">如果有點資金,小弟認為可以時間分配入市,分三四注,於4月底,5月中或底及6月中買入美股大股,如DIA,應是相當安全做法,這方法未必能令你買到最低位,但從各種走勢、數據縱合看,未能10年,直至2032年大頂,都不會再見到這些低位了。</span></div>
gogoldjoehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10379385900130057274noreply@blogger.com27tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7814543764754729146.post-81377682980580075492020-04-05T11:44:00.000+08:002020-04-05T11:44:10.467+08:00留意ECM拐點<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhYCRhXcFo8Si-rueized8_nfjMfnLJfL9yEyy9ISW99zKicwnuHJgnuLwoQNM7pIAGgPCsiQHiTs7O-iC72SSj1zSPP8CtPPxdneGvPZZP4Wgr81xuG5GAbXy7Rkdp8pzedPvwYZOwAoM/s1600/1-ECM-2032.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="502" data-original-width="696" height="460" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhYCRhXcFo8Si-rueized8_nfjMfnLJfL9yEyy9ISW99zKicwnuHJgnuLwoQNM7pIAGgPCsiQHiTs7O-iC72SSj1zSPP8CtPPxdneGvPZZP4Wgr81xuG5GAbXy7Rkdp8pzedPvwYZOwAoM/s640/1-ECM-2032.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEii6BKItj2g-jvUoKX2Lx5kfYnH6oDZNv4goDGqipKZbYfMZfoH054uOSElWFQMQp59cWcwSo44XXSTa5RI7XBkJ72km6vtnAuSqEU8c0NQh-K6R2QK6iZNIuXmRqU6J0DxIbUrZm1TBFs/s1600/%25E8%259E%25A2%25E5%25B9%2595%25E6%2588%25AA%25E5%259C%2596+2020-04-05+%25E4%25B8%258A%25E5%258D%258811.13.52.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="777" data-original-width="1600" height="310" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEii6BKItj2g-jvUoKX2Lx5kfYnH6oDZNv4goDGqipKZbYfMZfoH054uOSElWFQMQp59cWcwSo44XXSTa5RI7XBkJ72km6vtnAuSqEU8c0NQh-K6R2QK6iZNIuXmRqU6J0DxIbUrZm1TBFs/s640/%25E8%259E%25A2%25E5%25B9%2595%25E6%2588%25AA%25E5%259C%2596+2020-04-05+%25E4%25B8%258A%25E5%258D%258811.13.52.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">一場肺炎風暴,令到許多資產大跌價,包括黄金、白銀、石油。不過亦有例外,米價就免了疫,更升六年來高位。疫情影響了消費,但同樣是一把雙刃刀,破壞了生產力,令到供應減少,越南已限製大米出口。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">各國在疫情下會否有進一步行動限制物資出口呢?燃料、農產、礦物等商品。根據馬田的ECM模式,我們已正式進入一個通脹週期,最少延續至2024.35的ECM拐點。長期投資者要密切留意,現在普遍資產格價已跌至低殘,如按照ECM模式,應是時候趁低吸納。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">在很多ECM拐點,投資市場都出現風暴,例如2011.45後的三個月,金價就從歷史高位崩塌,2020.05後的一個月,就到美股從29568點崩塌。目前尚餘若干市場未經歷過歷史高位崩塌現象,包括債市、美元。2032.95的崩塌將是史無前例的大頂,年輕網要留意,年老的要告之後輩。</span></div>
gogoldjoehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10379385900130057274noreply@blogger.com19tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7814543764754729146.post-18534789918124934532020-03-27T15:42:00.000+08:002020-03-27T19:24:49.107+08:00MPF轉倉 成功避開新冠股災<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhm9GpFfp89ueE9id7DnRPpWqp4hgxMqjhI6YfArB7vm9ZUt_zkEmq_wvMV7vibgRUW28ZIhXkUD-tfB8cG3IKg0HCzI9h8SoGhY7ad6D-ME9DmfohZcOZfeIKN0dvun4VXyi9GIiy13nY/s1600/%25E8%259E%25A2%25E5%25B9%2595%25E6%2588%25AA%25E5%259C%2596+2020-03-17+%25E4%25B8%258B%25E5%258D%258812.18.57.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="858" data-original-width="1326" height="412" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhm9GpFfp89ueE9id7DnRPpWqp4hgxMqjhI6YfArB7vm9ZUt_zkEmq_wvMV7vibgRUW28ZIhXkUD-tfB8cG3IKg0HCzI9h8SoGhY7ad6D-ME9DmfohZcOZfeIKN0dvun4VXyi9GIiy13nY/s640/%25E8%259E%25A2%25E5%25B9%2595%25E6%2588%25AA%25E5%259C%2596+2020-03-17+%25E4%25B8%258B%25E5%258D%258812.18.57.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjByVUC440RH7K51FVCSYP39mA3zUfIq1Y5ZkPVQjBUG-O8HfF0XiPBVuJnNIixAHlXWlPe8O0iLe3deILL61Z73Hmn3HSLtoa0HSyGYtg_cUe2-BNeB_4DBFcG5sjjSZHCQK6gYJOZXOw/s1600/%25E8%259E%25A2%25E5%25B9%2595%25E6%2588%25AA%25E5%259C%2596+2020-03-17+%25E4%25B8%258B%25E5%258D%258812.25.32.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="782" data-original-width="1414" height="354" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjByVUC440RH7K51FVCSYP39mA3zUfIq1Y5ZkPVQjBUG-O8HfF0XiPBVuJnNIixAHlXWlPe8O0iLe3deILL61Z73Hmn3HSLtoa0HSyGYtg_cUe2-BNeB_4DBFcG5sjjSZHCQK6gYJOZXOw/s640/%25E8%259E%25A2%25E5%25B9%2595%25E6%2588%25AA%25E5%259C%2596+2020-03-17+%25E4%25B8%258B%25E5%258D%258812.25.32.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">相信美股已經初步觸底,就算未到,也離底不離。小弟及內子尚有MPF戶口,繼1月14日將MPF的100%北美股票基金轉做保守基金後,今日正式將100%保守基金轉回100%北美股票基金。成功避開整個跌浪,沒有100%,也應該有七八成吧,有請小鳳姐!</span></div>
gogoldjoehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10379385900130057274noreply@blogger.com34tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7814543764754729146.post-37448911563145432842020-03-25T15:53:00.003+08:002020-03-25T16:42:31.944+08:00馬田:美股有機會已見底 將有反彈<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjHBQZR69mlOmbrTygemVhWr-HvjV5iL89X2OLiYM1ocOZ2AUDHvelRnxPE0YrKFqQQGqjhPr-2g2KDC-U-aM8gYIpJX9_HF7l1Q7jjMmF14LpbtKa0NYIxXk4kmMi-7nzbj1REL_P3b5M/s1600/%25E8%259E%25A2%25E5%25B9%2595%25E6%2588%25AA%25E5%259C%2596+2020-03-25+%25E4%25B8%258A%25E5%258D%258811.28.33+%25E5%2589%25AF%25E6%259C%25AC+2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="914" data-original-width="1600" height="364" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjHBQZR69mlOmbrTygemVhWr-HvjV5iL89X2OLiYM1ocOZ2AUDHvelRnxPE0YrKFqQQGqjhPr-2g2KDC-U-aM8gYIpJX9_HF7l1Q7jjMmF14LpbtKa0NYIxXk4kmMi-7nzbj1REL_P3b5M/s640/%25E8%259E%25A2%25E5%25B9%2595%25E6%2588%25AA%25E5%259C%2596+2020-03-25+%25E4%25B8%258A%25E5%258D%258811.28.33+%25E5%2589%25AF%25E6%259C%25AC+2.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">動盪的三月尚有五個交易日就結束,可用驚心動魄形容!馬田前天(星期一)收市後出了最新分析。事關重要部署,小弟特地找了一位讀英文系的朋友幫手確認內容。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">對於星期一收市,馬田用" So Far so good "形容,喚言之形勢安好。接着他說:「道指23日收高於18500,並且最低見18194.4,保持於我們提供的技術支持位以上。」(The Dow closed above the 18500 level and it held the technical support we provided at 18194.4.)</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">接着他說,這是個理想的低位(Idea Low),他的環球市況監測系統(Global Market Watch)確定這是個膝跳反彈的低位(Knee Jerk Low)</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">喚言之,反彈已經展開,彈到何時呢?馬田接說,下個目標是4月6日那個星期(The next target week is the 6th of April),不過,接着他又說,那個時間仍然有下試15000中位的危機存在。(There still remains the risk of another low at that time which could test the mid 15000 level),接着他說,這主要取決定拋售潮/清算潮去到本季尾的情況。喚言之,危機未完全解除。</span><br />
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<span style="color: red; font-size: large;">非常非常非常重要一點,4月6日那星期有機會是反彈的頂部,之後有機會於同一星內回落再試低位。低位是否一定落到15000呢?不一定,那只是最差情況,如果保持於日收市沒有擊穿18500, 基本上,整個調整完結。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">跟着他說:「今天我們需要確保收於20490以上,才能確定這個低位可保持,並且作出反彈。」(We wtill need a closing on a daily level above 20490 to signal this low will hold for a bounce. ), 昨晚美股絕地反擊,升了二千多點,收於20704.91,即是說,已經超越他的預期,反彈正式展開。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">最後他作總結:我們的能量模式於上星期升至頂端,意味我們會創出更低的低位(making lower low),不過,我們的買賣趨勢(counter-trend)同時發出有力提示,低位近了!</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">綜合整段分析,星期一(23日)極大機會是一個底部了,因為已經應驗了他的能量模式預測,創出比20日(上星期五)更低的低位(18194.4)。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">小弟建議買賣策略,有點資金,可於今晚入市,買入可攻可守的安全大股,例如DIA、SPY、QQQ等等,之後等未來三星期任何高位沽出,贏面極大!機會難得,不要忘記,美股已經跌回四年前價位,人家花四年爬上來的時間成本,都給你賺走了。</span></div>
gogoldjoehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10379385900130057274noreply@blogger.com22tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7814543764754729146.post-70294490200661134832020-03-19T08:08:00.001+08:002020-03-19T08:08:13.713+08:00銀價跌近成本價 買入SLV鎖定價格<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<span style="font-size: large;">金融市場巨幅波動,很多資產已經跌至賤價,最明顯是白銀,昨晚一度跌至每安士$11美元以下,印象中這是2008金融海嘯以來未見過(有錯請指正),小弟最低見過$8.XX,但一閃即逝,還記得當年小弟到中銀買楓葉銀幣,全行只餘下五個,每個賣$96港元。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">小弟已打定輸數,如此賤價白銀,應是沒有實貨供應的了,免浪費時間及腳骨力,近日陸續買入SLV白銀ETF,鎖定價格,若此價繼續,亦繼續爭持,有機會轉換成實體白銀,因為這個賤價應時很貼近白銀的生產成本了。關於白銀生產成本,可參考<a href="https://www.facebook.com/notes/financeword%E5%8C%AF%E7%9C%BE%E8%B3%87%E8%A8%8A/%E6%B7%B1%E5%BA%A6%E7%A7%91%E6%99%AE%E7%99%BD%E9%8A%80%E7%9A%84%E7%94%9F%E7%94%A2%E6%88%90%E6%9C%AC%E5%88%B0%E5%BA%95%E5%A4%9A%E5%B0%91/1652606821487658/">這篇</a>,考慮成本時不單只限開採提煉,還有運輸、保險、儲存等,一般不計入內。所以當年香港海關破獲白銀走私案,充供了一批貨,後進行拍賣,記得當年(約2008年)出價約$9/安士,十多年過去,銀價竟一個月內跌至$11以下。</span></div>
gogoldjoehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10379385900130057274noreply@blogger.com47tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7814543764754729146.post-11480197732768989162020-03-14T22:09:00.002+08:002020-03-14T22:17:56.686+08:00金價離小底不遠 最多或下試1450-1470<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<span style="font-size: large;">近日金價急回,收到不少網友詢問是否買入位,小弟可以頗為肯定地說:是!這個位可以買,尤其長遠投資,再加上美股出現如此大幅度,金價亦跟隨下滑,資金沒有避險流入金市,反去了美債。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">早前與一網友討論,小弟初分析認為金價可能跟道指一樣,跌穿2016年建構出來的長期升軌,最差是下試1362支持位。不過仔細分析後,覺得最差或許只會去到1450-1470位置(當然亦未必一定去到),何解?道指由高位出現這麼大的回落,甚至跌穿了長期升軌,落入熊市區域,原因是它由2017年起已升穿了長期升軌,過去一年更進一步偏離基本升軌,屢創歷史新高。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">相反金價沒有!仍然只是上試基本升軌的上行線。謹記,愈偏離會引起愈大愈跨的修正,正如這次道指的股災。不過亦要謹記每個大牛市亦可能在運行中出現類似這次道指大跌的Slingshot,這次金價沒有,不代表往後不會出現,不過這應該不會是短期內的事。道指這次</span><span style="font-size: large;">Slingshot</span><span style="font-size: large;">前經歷史整整兩年的偏離(雖道指未回升,但小弟已頗肯定是Slingshot)。</span></div>
gogoldjoehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10379385900130057274noreply@blogger.com71tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7814543764754729146.post-7182022918978574852020-03-13T21:36:00.003+08:002020-03-13T21:45:56.691+08:00跌法像1987 估計番家鄉日子<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<span style="font-size: large;">遇上股災,年輕一輩第一件事必想起08金融海嘯。其實論下滑形態,這次更像1987年股災,可能有些網友當時還未出生。坊間一般分析認為當年是由電腦程式沽盤引致。無論是高位構成形態,下跌的急速性,兩者都有點像。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">如果不幸於高位入市,買後繼續跌,何時可以回家鄉?參考1987年股災後的復元時間,就不會心驚了。最差高位入貨(希望沒有網友於此位入)要等兩年,跌了三分二才入,要等約八個月。</span><span style="font-size: large;">當然股災未必會重復同一模式(下跌及復元),但可作為一點參考。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">不過更重要一點是,明顯地看到兩次股災於高位的形態都不是見大頂之狀。大頂是怎樣的呢?1929年大崩塌,頂部是尖尖的</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">的金字塔狀,即馬田形容的Spike high,1989年東京股市也有這種走勢。</span></div>
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gogoldjoehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10379385900130057274noreply@blogger.com18tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7814543764754729146.post-3362192287919032622020-03-13T13:09:00.000+08:002020-03-13T14:24:41.000+08:00美股大平賣<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<span style="font-size: large;">面對股災,通常我們只關心兩個問題,何時完結?會跌到多低?我何時會由蝕變賺?跌市像升市一樣,充滿不確定性,但亦升市一樣,一定有完結一天,問題是到那天你還夠膽買嗎?大部份人都不夠膽買,更有許多人會被震出來,美股就正經歷這樣時刻,從交易量可以看到。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">那現在是熊市嗎?技術上是!但構成一個熊市還要看它能延續多久?由2010年至今,道指經歷了多次大調整,走勢上可以看到。由2016年特普朗當選的突破位,一直升至今年初2月12日歷史最高點。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">UDOW是其中一隻追縱道指的槓桿型ETF,經過這次股災,其價格已經接近返回特朗普當選突破向上的關鍵位。當年小弟經驗不足,就在突破前<a href="https://gogoldjoe.blogspot.com/2016/11/blog-post_1.html">沽了貨</a>,還記得馬田當年分析是:沒有賣出訊號!因為美股本地參與度仍然偏低,不構成大跌條件。可惜小弟當年看漏了眼,結果微利離場,錯過往後更大升幅。當年此股未拆細,約七十元,折合今天約等於$35。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">如果我們確定美股是一個大牛市這基本訊號,當下就是買入的好機會,可以報回當年一賣之仇。那美股仍然是大牛市嗎?又是甚麼因素支持着這個大牛市?</span><span style="font-size: large;">美股有可能像1930年代步入長期熊市嗎(超過十年)?</span><span style="font-size: large;">這是當下要思考問題!</span><span style="font-size: large;">多年來小弟亦寫了多篇文章解釋,</span><span style="font-size: large;">構成這個大牛市因素很多,至今這些因素並沒有任何改變。想得通這些問題,對當下的災情(股災),自然不當一回事。近來有入市的,你的買入位或許不是最低,撈不到底,但要明白,絕對的底是很難捉摸,正如由2010年至2020年,數次調整中,你捕捉過多少底?</span></div>
gogoldjoehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10379385900130057274noreply@blogger.com12tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7814543764754729146.post-38138740522623077922020-03-13T08:19:00.000+08:002020-03-13T08:50:02.934+08:00聯儲局注資無效 道指續插水 趁低再撈貨<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhAKfwYea13gUhR1-ZRda7K551cbRB8tl5e5qDVpDp_BR9dvSALzyIjiUYIgr7Srg3aibeBDfb7rowgYLkJk5MGj25hMH8Bch6j1tKHSFTRl4Sb7GSX1br9myfkRwkczhST7hQ9Fuq-2ao/s1600/%25E8%259E%25A2%25E5%25B9%2595%25E6%2588%25AA%25E5%259C%2596+2020-03-12+%25E4%25B8%258B%25E5%258D%258811.54.14.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="92" data-original-width="1600" height="34" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhAKfwYea13gUhR1-ZRda7K551cbRB8tl5e5qDVpDp_BR9dvSALzyIjiUYIgr7Srg3aibeBDfb7rowgYLkJk5MGj25hMH8Bch6j1tKHSFTRl4Sb7GSX1br9myfkRwkczhST7hQ9Fuq-2ao/s640/%25E8%259E%25A2%25E5%25B9%2595%25E6%2588%25AA%25E5%259C%2596+2020-03-12+%25E4%25B8%258B%25E5%258D%258811.54.14.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">美股雪崩式暴跌,昨晚趁世紀低位再撈貨。道指中段,因為聯儲局注資隔夜利率市場,一度反彈,但其後再度出現恐慌拋售,更跌穿了馬田分析的21243-21304區間,喚言之,星期一有機會再試低位。馬田那將會是一個暫時的底部,道指將會反彈。反彈完,三月尾到四月首星期會再下滑。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">不單美股大跌,隔夜利率市場亦出現恐慌,銀行與銀行間的借貸利率一度升上10%,令聯儲局要注資救市。馬田近一年講了N資的隔夜利率危機再次發病。他昨夜出文指,這有機會導致美國銀行業暫停運作。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">像網友傳給我的短訊~人生呀!大家有幸再次看到一次經濟危機,但要有心理準備,這只是開始,未來十年,2020-2032我們大有可能看到馬田說的Big Bang,債務崩塌,到時就不只是今天這種危機小菜了,連美元都會出現危機。始於2011年始於2016年的聯儲局的量化寬鬆救市(QE)已證明失敗,危機再度爆發,政府可以壓着長期息口,可以壓着官方利率,卻左右不了短息,壓不了私人利率。</span></div>
gogoldjoehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10379385900130057274noreply@blogger.com10tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7814543764754729146.post-32875102924156941342020-03-13T00:40:00.000+08:002020-03-13T00:44:19.651+08:00道指跌落熊陷阱區線外<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgy-Laz72RhUAOnwcAoD65a7r0SMVsMiG4zd2xejgJGYWo9eOe5TXbzCcLdmaRwgO3W-m43id_mHblACdTPOvzW0BYo5M-QKHhKwMAMxuV5WJtQXTdLcWXQDwJ9953tJnJ0BvtCrfZXVg8/s1600/%25E8%259E%25A2%25E5%25B9%2595%25E6%2588%25AA%25E5%259C%2596+2020-03-12+%25E4%25B8%258B%25E5%258D%258811.37.29.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="887" data-original-width="1600" height="354" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgy-Laz72RhUAOnwcAoD65a7r0SMVsMiG4zd2xejgJGYWo9eOe5TXbzCcLdmaRwgO3W-m43id_mHblACdTPOvzW0BYo5M-QKHhKwMAMxuV5WJtQXTdLcWXQDwJ9953tJnJ0BvtCrfZXVg8/s640/%25E8%259E%25A2%25E5%25B9%2595%25E6%2588%25AA%25E5%259C%2596+2020-03-12+%25E4%25B8%258B%25E5%258D%258811.37.29.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">大時代!今晚終於跌入熊陷區,並且跌出界外,由29000以上高位幾乎是一條線直落,沒有一個似樣反彈。前者小弟早有預感,留言有紀錄看到。後者就完全超出小弟預期。馬田說的27500沒有反彈,小弟畫出的三個阻力位也沒有到,雙頂頸線阻力位也沒到。</span><span style="font-size: large;">這種跌法似何時呢?最似是1987年股災。不過小弟相信之後的走勢模式不會重複。</span></div>
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gogoldjoehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10379385900130057274noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7814543764754729146.post-84056835198216994582020-03-12T20:10:00.000+08:002020-03-12T20:10:48.556+08:00道指跌出基本升軌 快到馬田買貨訊號區<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgCxksEYzuK8rHU3phCGLnfUuK_GYtlj-43F8bKiY1SFy9v-3FXNfMRo4S0fLiEcGPNajNIlN2yu9yqQq7ajAvMBQ5X4a0oJ3fZQCuFIcfIKhQzegSurYWKxdBiubhicEr1wQetHYXKdNg/s1600/%25E8%259E%25A2%25E5%25B9%2595%25E6%2588%25AA%25E5%259C%2596+2020-03-12+%25E4%25B8%258B%25E5%258D%25884.23.16.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="920" data-original-width="1600" height="364" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgCxksEYzuK8rHU3phCGLnfUuK_GYtlj-43F8bKiY1SFy9v-3FXNfMRo4S0fLiEcGPNajNIlN2yu9yqQq7ajAvMBQ5X4a0oJ3fZQCuFIcfIKhQzegSurYWKxdBiubhicEr1wQetHYXKdNg/s640/%25E8%259E%25A2%25E5%25B9%2595%25E6%2588%25AA%25E5%259C%2596+2020-03-12+%25E4%25B8%258B%25E5%258D%25884.23.16.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgXPV5uoXJEMp7IrHYLPG4SccYW_7L-pbrVs7M76P_5_iSBLjr9-pDB4aFgYBeqlc9_bZyw4QxPSPvrpjDEOQ0AD4OJRdYIEoUXhg0hFQ3X_vdU8SOHsGo5J4ZB5bpChxWKvZIwrvrjiU4/s1600/%25E8%259E%25A2%25E5%25B9%2595%25E6%2588%25AA%25E5%259C%2596+2020-03-12+%25E4%25B8%258A%25E5%258D%25883.26.33.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="590" data-original-width="1600" height="234" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgXPV5uoXJEMp7IrHYLPG4SccYW_7L-pbrVs7M76P_5_iSBLjr9-pDB4aFgYBeqlc9_bZyw4QxPSPvrpjDEOQ0AD4OJRdYIEoUXhg0hFQ3X_vdU8SOHsGo5J4ZB5bpChxWKvZIwrvrjiU4/s640/%25E8%259E%25A2%25E5%25B9%2595%25E6%2588%25AA%25E5%259C%2596+2020-03-12+%25E4%25B8%258A%25E5%258D%25883.26.33.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">昨晚美股再大跌1464點,落到23553點。小弟亦大舉入貨,做好道指。除此外,還反手做好金價、銀價。相信要捱價了,因為執筆時美期又處了大插之中,跌幅過千。但小弟相信絕對有得守,現價從高位跌幅已接近六千點,只是個多月時間。馬田昨晚出了新分析,幾點以下幾點。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">1.如果今周收市低於23779,意味下周會做出一個更低位(小弟理解是比今個星期低位更低)</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">2.今周需要收高於25340,才表示今周的低位就是最低了,下周不會做出更低的位。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">3.周五如收低於23300,表示下周會創出更低的位,就算收低於23765,也代表下周偏弱,會繼續走勢。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">4.明天(即今天)將跌得更低,之後或有一個兩天的反彈,但會創出一個新低。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">5.4月20日那周會有重大轉變位,可能會下試動21600。三月或者是最低的收市月,四月是轉變月,下個重要目標在五月。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">以上可以參考來作出策略調整。看小弟自己畫的走勢圖,現時道指已跌穿了基本升軌,落入假熊陷阱區。這個位小弟之前也有提及過也有機會來到,自已也半信半疑,不是很肯定,但結果就是來到了。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">市場一片哀號遍野,部份投行如高盛更說牛市結束,美股已落入熊市。不過如果有追縱馬田分析的,當然會知道這情況就是將把牛市推向新階段的Slingshot了。正是難得入貨時機,絕對低位很難捉摸,大約能買到一個低位就已不錯了。就算不參與風高浪急的美股,為長遠計,也可準備把MPF轉做北美股票基金,人生不會遇到多少次,今週標普一度跌停市,是自金融海嘯以來第一次,可知跌得有多利害。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">一定有人擔人熊市來臨,像有跟小弟買股的一位友人,也有點擔心,但甚麼是熊市呢?對於28000-29000入市道指的,熊市對他們才有影響,底位入貨,何怕?熊市有熊市玩法,美股可買升亦可買跌,如果認為是熊市的,那大可反手做淡,你又夠膽於一個跌了近六千點的股市做繼續做淡買跌?當然自問一下,會發現導致我們驚慌的不是熊市,只是一時間像捉錯了方向而已,當要決定為牛市或熊市作部署時,其實也會三心兩意,我們怕的不是熊市,而是一時間不知如何面對大市與自己逆向而行。</span></div>
gogoldjoehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10379385900130057274noreply@blogger.com32tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7814543764754729146.post-56161147120673401072020-03-10T18:26:00.001+08:002020-03-10T18:26:12.189+08:00馬田預測未來兩週美股反彈<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<span style="font-size: large;">昨晚投資市場大幅波動,美股道指世紀性下跌二千多點,國際油價崩跌近三成,黄金由高位回落。大量市況資訊,分析得死了不少腦細胞。昨晚做了多項操作:</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">1/ 沽出上週買入的做淡黄金股票JDST,獲利可以</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">2/ 沽出餘下做淡道指的SDOW,獲利可以</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">3/ 趁油價大崩,再入UCO,現均價$10.87,捱價中</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">4/ 趁道指大跌,反手做好,昨晚入少量UDOW,作價$70</span><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">手上現沒有任何做淡美股的股票。回顧是次做淡美股部署,美股不中是第二輪做淡受動波市影響,過早買及過早沽,令獲利縮了一截。</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">今周及未來兩週,馬田出了多篇分析。總括是,今週將會是一個低位,未來兩周將會反彈,四月初會再下跌。昨晚收市低於24288,走勢偏弱,意味美股未止瀉。給果反彈,第一阻力位在26620左右。未來數天走勢,如果今晚升,明晚會跌。</span></div>
gogoldjoehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10379385900130057274noreply@blogger.com11