2011年6月7日 星期二

脹與縮

還在寫馬田,要找的資料很多,其中通賬及通縮數據不可少,羅仔的《勢事循環》有不少好圖,像上圖的美國通賬數據就長達300年(由1775年至2010年)。

從圖睇到乜?高通賬、高通縮經常出現,但自1934年金本位倒本質上倒台後,只有通賬沒有通縮,從歷史循環來說,似乎不大合理。另外,高通賬自80年代出現過後(其實也不算太高),就很少再出現了,歷史真的會一路和諧下去?不賬亦不縮?常識告訴我們:不會!

看《勢事循環》還發現,羅仔原來都有讀馬田大師,但應不是看了很多,他只在第一章寫了四五行字講普林斯頓學會(馬田創立),連馬田個名都冇提及。

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PS1:大家跟指數兄討論不需過份認真!總結佢言論:我好勁,我識策劃者,我識富二代,信唔信由得你地!好似問你信唔信有鬼咁?有乜好討論?好小事,日留言夜留言,不斷話買金買銀會中計,總會遇上金銀調整,到時可以出來威威:「我都話叫你地信啦,你地唔信,而家知死啦!」

早前有日股升500點,佢即刻捉住point,話股市反映左佢個論點出來,近日大跌,唔知佢又有乜解釋?不過,估計佢唔會答,因為係策劃者的計劃,唔講得,而且做乜要益外人?信唔信由得你,最好唔好信!呢種方法,以前uwant都好多人用,叫玩心理,所以我話唔使太認真!佢只會不斷重複又重複「信唔信由得你,我識策劃者,我識富二代,佢地想點,我知道!」

我覺得大家亦無需惡言相向,我從來冇用任何惡言話過佢,當然如果佢認為話人多疑都計算在內,真係無可話可說!其實,佢都係醒目仔,起碼咁耐一直回避「通縮」問題,就算多種佢所稱的「末日撚」都不約而同講過通縮威脅,包括《貨幣戰爭》、富爸爸,佢始終都係回避再回避,醒目!佢只會繼續答:知都唔講,策劃者想點就點! 或者答:下星期我會爆料,如是者又下星期,又下星期........直至某星期金銀調整,就會發表偉論!大家明唔明手法係點?

Ps2:Lisa是停了發文嗎?為何希債危機後沒有新文?

68 則留言:

匿名 提到...

咪係,如果佢真係識策劃者,識富二代,佢邊有咁得閒同我地班閒人發UP風丫,有錢都享受人生啦,會咁好人叫我地班閒人唔好中計?當睇小丑咪算囉,好睇的,比多兩下掌聲,唔好睇,你都唔會投訴個小丑啦.
JOE 兄,等睇你的馬田系列,努力.

chapman 提到...

一隻手掌拍唔響...大家也應明白....^_^

小弟還是比較喜歡討論自己能明白的東西.
joe兄努力,期待看你寫岩氏理論的文章!

Joe 提到...

我已將佢所有留言輯錄,唔係我無聊,所有反意見,我都間中有輯錄,留待將來可以拎番出來睇!連幾年前既都有!

Gordon 提到...

joe

This article look like for GN c hing.Very good evidence by a chart. It is solid.

P.S. Lisa said she can't access to google blog and would post new article by yahoo blog temporarily.

http://hk.myblog.yahoo.com/iam-lisagallery

Joe 提到...

THANKS!個google真係唔多店!都係盡快將文章save!

Generation Next 提到...
作者已經移除這則留言。
Generation Next 提到...

I do admire very much to those sharp & energetic saplings like both of you, it is very difficult for me to stay awake till late (or very early in the morning) as you can. Back to the topic, I am still looking for argument to deny my thought of "deflation impossible". So far the straight to hyper-inflation storyboard is prevailing, at least, at this point IMHO. Let's keep watching,

BTW, E-Coli like SARS can create a short term monetary contraction, any plan to do shopping in Europe?

honson 提到...

民間波發展中
More Americans Think Economy Will Never Recover

http://www.cnbc.com/id/43268037

匿名 提到...

Lisa's new blog location:
http://hk.myblog.yahoo.com/iam-lisagallery

Silverow

Joe 提到...

瘟疫呢家野,歷史上常有,對政府信心的威脅有,但不算大,對金銀上升助力亦有限,最勁係地震,像明朝嘉靖年間就發生了超勁地震,是人類歷史上最大,未計人口統計以外的死亡人數,根據明史記就過85萬,成為明朝由盛轉弱關鍵。所以馬田大師才以地震周期去研究經濟。(呢樣野睇怕應唔關策劃者事?不過要講都有都得,可以話地下秘密引爆核彈,或者運用巫術!)哈哈!

Joe 提到...

前幾排日本大地震,金銀就大升,直至平靜下來,先至下調!(海蕭可能係由策劃者係海底發動)

honson 提到...

乜都關策劃者事...佢地未好忙,哈哈
PS:我工作上間唔中都會接觸下的富二代...^-^

Bill Hong 提到...

before 311, no one would have imagined the impact of the natural disaster. time would tell 311 was the turning point in year 2011 all the way to the looming collapse of US and EU debts empires. BTW, if we studied closely, it was the haiti and chile quakes started off in 2010. we as a society, too busy to bother with the quakes. let the mainstream continues to fease the happy talks and deceptions/distractions (yellow journalism) while most of the folks are ignoring the economic reality.

GN: on the deflation argument. SURE. we can have deflation. all it takes is govt to impose tax and make metals illegal. AND print as much money as they could to bid up the bonds price. of course, as a firm believer of free trade and economy, do we really want to see this kind of controlled state economy?? i am sure you know the answer already. as kartherine pointed out earlier, there will be surprises for us in this looming turbulence.

http://urbansurvival.com/week.htm per GN request, George Ure urbansurvival web site for your reference. go to youtube search Cliff High June 4th interview. he talked bout his report was stolen by the powers to be regarding the meltup/down of the market in summer/fall of 2011.

on silver, 39 resistance failed 3 times since may 1st flash crash. just wait for stabilization before jumping back in again. "still not selling a single oz of physicals."

Generation Next 提到...

呢樣野睇怕應唔關策劃者事?不過要講都有都得,可以話地下秘密引爆核彈,或者運用巫術!)
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倪康有寫過一集衛思理,講有人發現了外星人遺留在地球的地震誘發裝置,並以此威脅世界...........

Generation Next 提到...
作者已經移除這則留言。
Gordon 提到...

Joe兄睇來係扮指數兄的語氣攪下gag ji。

Generation Next 提到...

這個不材自然心領神會,只是見有緣兄要等到下週才會認真點,心急而已。需知好金甲相對易找,叻的反金甲難得呀!

Generation Next 提到...
作者已經移除這則留言。
Gordon 提到...

哦,哈哈,原來兩位師兄係度釣緊魚,打擾左你地添。

Wong Wai Leong 提到...

羅仔既然講循環理論,無理由唔提下馬田大師

匿名 提到...

Joe 提到...
前幾排日本大地震,金銀就大升,直至平靜下來,先至下調!(海蕭可能係由策劃者係海底發動)

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回Joe,用HAARP + 自然現象隱瞞事實(sun-earth-elenin連成一線)

嘉芙蓮 提到...

GN
de唔deflation, 只係過程一個小部份(沙石論as per 鑼爆謝凌潔貞), hyperinflation 先係大家重點.....不如問下joe 兄馬田大師有無提及,我看了兩天還找不到關於這方面他作的結論.

匿名 提到...

~做真小人都不做偽君子~
出左一個理論回覆關於通縮~不過估唔到結果就係有人過份緊張~按左刪貼~手法低招得很~你地幾偽君子~

Lisa 提到...

今日突然又入到 blogspot, 不過回應好似沒正常 !

黃泰利 提到...

joe兄,

好耐冇講過野...見你近期火氣猛...好似俾啲低能反對意見激親...

joe兄,唔知你有冇留意開new age呢啲topic...new age佬係鍾意講能量,陰謀論,ufo,世界末日果啲topics...

果啲講咩咩策劃者,唔知係咪指光明會,乜乜七七會控制世界上大多數既資源(事實上,宋san亦有講R家族操控世界...)

事實上,除咗經濟佬(主要係金甲蟲),啲new age佬都喜歡講咩經濟陰謀理論...但容許我再講多一次,起碼喺香港,冇一個new age佬真係識經濟(因為經濟範疇我比較熟,所以比較可以一針見血看出,其他topics如外星人,ufo等我就唔敢講)...所以,joe兄你若認真回應啲new age佬關於經濟既topic,係冇乜意思既...笑下就算啦...

黃泰利 提到...

joe兄,

多數喺香港既new age佬,都係喺商業社會撈唔掂,轉營吹水既,多數係社會上邊緣既一群...如果一條友喺網上吹話識得咩咩富二代,收到啲咩咩風...條友一定精神有問題...(如果我識陳x希,會唔會有女唔玩咁q得閒同你上網研究咩咩金金銀銀???),如果佢真係識得啲咩咩會成員...(識得呢啲咩咩會既人個個都哈佛耶魯架啦,街邊賣魚蛋既都話自己識得乜乜人仲得了既???)

Joe 提到...

回指數兄,

我可以我祖宗十八代發誓,沒刪過任何貼,要低招又何需只刪一貼,索性像其他blog一樣block人就得,你能於此繼續發言,就是最佳證明,證記埋作者都得!甚至可email給我,代為發表亦得,因為這裡很少有反意見,我樂見如此,在下發表過的言論,小弟一一記綠,寫完馬田會整理成文,代為發表,由80後指數,到末日撚,到陰質論,到統計學,以告新人自行判斷。如此胸襟,會刪貼?太看小小弟了!

Joe 提到...

謝泰利兄意見,火氣唔稱得上,只係無奈!續個point回應,浪廢時間,因為通一野就講到佢放棄,好似行書局搵數據,冇咩好討論落去,於是又轉新話題,邊有咁多時間續個point去拆?講邏輯又唔明,例如舉財經雜誌為例,佢竟以為我話佢,但醒目都知我係想指出:為何世界沒日撚會出書,但有每月銷書幾萬的雜誌又唔用?(當然佢又會答,出書而不出雜誌係因為睇雜誌者文化水準低,身家不夠豐厚,或者策劃者想點就點,唔講得!)

嘉芙蓮 提到...

黃泰利
係喎我呢論都睇左好多外國new age new order 既website, 印象中佢地都頗有學識,係另類d, 乜香港都有咩? 我以為得d new age music, new age spirit, new age tarot only. 真係孤陋寡聞. New age 經濟佬, 幾特別...

Cefull 提到...

今日白銀文話:
金銀要升,唔係因為金融危機,而係因政府對金融危機嘅政策,例如印鈔票嘅量化寬鬆。我甚至認為,如果啲政府揸正來做,俾應該執嘅銀行執,應跌價嘅資產跌,應輸清光嘅存戶、投資者輸清光,金同銀係一定冇運行。

咁算唔算金甲蟲的風險?
p.s. 自從有左 too big to fail 之後, 高風險都變成零風險, 投行更加有咁大博咁大. 金甲的風險其實算係好低下. :-)

黃泰利 提到...

To Catherine

外國既new agers同香港既係不可同日而語.喺香港講new age既主要係喺網台搵食...咩咩issac sit, 卓飛等...印象中佢地講經濟以外啲topics例如外星人,ufo等都「算叫做有水準」...

真正new age講既係「靈性提升,減少受物質既束縛,回歸精神層面」,基本上價值觀係同資本主義打對台...new age既經典書籍係Conversations With God...妳真係得閒可以參考下...

new age亦有經濟呢一part.有啲new agers比較喜歡講陰謀論,佢地會成日話呢個世界係由乜乜光明會控制(美金個三角形單眼標記係光明會既會徽...to some extent it is very true,妳有冇睇inside jobs?睇下啲受訪金融佬啲猶太咀臉妳就知...)

金甲蟲同new world order既人都喜歡講美元陰謀,nwo佬會講新美元(即係舊美元全部write-off然後印過一批金本位既新美元喎,達到控制貨幣體系的目的,而起碼我呢啲實金投資者就只係因為抗通漲(美元濫發)+經濟崩潰而投資黃金白銀...一切從投資角度出發,理q得佢有冇陰謀,而事實上,如果唔係大戶,投資永遠只能「跟莊玩」.呢個我諗就係經濟佬同new agers最大分別...)

所謂new age music就係果啲聽落好能夠relax既音樂...有啲係用嚟meditation,幫助靜心...又有啲會話幫你腦電波down到alpha stage...

所以new age係一個大topic,有好多唔同範疇,但經濟投資係專業過專業既領域(係100%基於常識既專業),但硬係就係有人覺得自己好識經濟,鍾意挑機演野...只此而已...而如果妳對資本主義厭倦,妳或許會喜歡某些new age既範疇...例如靜心,回歸大自然,環保等...

黃泰利 提到...

To CEFULL

黃金白銀最大風險係...除咗我以往講笑咁講話美國佬會良心發現攪量化收緊...仲要最最最留意共產黨會否俾港元升值(機會率低於百份之零點一,但唔包當人民幣走向國際,共產黨消滅港元時,會否重新制定利率,例如如果今日人仔完全自由兌換,共產黨會否用1:1以人民幣取締港元,然後跟番1「中港人民幣」兌6.4美元??)...若如是,黃金兌「中港人民幣」便會貶值...

所以,唔止投資黃金,其實做得香港人,都要知道共產黨幾時郁埋港元...但中難海係有自己既時間表,佢地好好樂見人民幣換多好多港幣,然後掃香港樓...所以短期(五年內)大陸佬都未會郁港元住...

Generation Next 提到...

Thanks Bill for the link.

Katherine,
Deflation is my particular interest because, unlike inflation, it needs a kind of sparks, like SARS, for instant, to initiate. And these sparks are less easy for the Power Elites to control, as well as the resulting consequences, like e-coli. Inflation and hyper inflation MUST be supported by government, banks, and influential entities, to me less interesting.

Generation Next 提到...

有緣人兄,您知道嗎?其實是非常希望您可以繼續留言。。。。

Generation Next 提到...

幾日前,有時如果留言太長,個Blog會讓你成功貼文,你會看到文已貼上,但一刷新就會消失。建議您分開數個留言貼文。

Gordon 提到...

黄泰利,嘉芙蓮,
有個華文new ager叫秋仔,佢個網站資料充足,我追住成個星期,越睇越多料,好野來。有篇文章叫人買金添。

黃泰利 提到...

To Gordon

做個精明的投資者,睇野要有focus:

1. 錢-任何事物的投資前景
2. 健康-任何疫症,新型病菌/病毒,包括出血性大腸桿菌,猩紅熱等(你知唔知點解德國佬查嚟查去都唔會去查肉類既源頭呀?)

黃泰利 提到...

再To Gordon

請精讀李天命所有著作...

KEN 提到...

頭先新聞話"胃預平給几購"打算調低美國的"平給",如果美國還唔到債息.睇來,OH媽媽想製做一個QE3,QE4,...QEN是必須發生的概定事實咁喎.
民間波又在增強了.(都係必須發生的概定事實)

Joe 提到...

QE就必定繼續落去,否則果多左出來的千幾億國債搵邊個買?不過估計唔會用QE呢個名,會改用第二個。

KEN 提到...

可以叫 ...瑪麗/威爾斯/瑪嘉烈, 又或者明愛/廣華,
豪D叫 港安/仁安/法國 都得.
不過癌細胞都擴散了, 美國政府都要快手D搵定善終服務了.

Gordon 提到...

To:黃泰利,
請問為何要提醒我睇野要focus 呢?唔明點解你之後舉出錢和健康的例子,可以講解一下嗎?謝謝。

嘉芙蓮 提到...

黃泰利
new age 野我久唔久都留意下, 都是藝術方面,之前仲學過tarot cards 學左少少靜坐,仲feel到dd出竅, 所以有d驚, 不過d音樂的確可令人平靜.

inside job我睇左n 次了, 希望拍下集!
等我得閒睇下d new age 經濟佬寫野先....

黃泰利 提到...

To Gordon

講直啲,即係睇少啲無謂野...如有得罪萬勿介意

i 提到...

黃兄, "濫"都係一個學習嘅過程嚟嘅,唔係點歸納而成精要哩...叻嘅咪會歸納得快啲lor..,

itutor

Gordon 提到...

師兄好意指教,怎會介意?黃兄可以講多d點解德国佬為何不去查豬肉呢?李天命的書什多,第一本看哪一本最好呢?

黃泰利 提到...

To Catherine

基本上,如果生活順心,暫無必要學甚麼靜坐咯...

如果妳有留意開藝術,咁,當妳好投入咁畫畫(or雕刻,whatsoever)既時候,已經可以達致靜心,而又一定唔會出竅)

如果講音樂達玫平靜,個人比較喜歡jazz, bossa nova等音樂,new age果啲音樂,唔知有冇加料...(即係latent messages,哩,例如果啲加入電影度叫人食popcorn果啲哩...)

黃泰利 提到...

To Gordon

有留意開健康飲食資訊既人都知...食素會舐野既主要係農藥(最出名既係胛胺磷),同埋添加劑...如果有機種植(簡單嚟講係唔落農藥)會出亂子就係因為糞肥出問題).2005年唔記得邊度就係有人因為生食蔬菜而死,死因係因為有野豬疴咗dudu(含菌)落塊田度污染咗啲菜,而個農夫喺不知情既情況下收割咗啲菜,而食果條友又冇洗乾淨生食就中咗招...

之所以我覺得奇怪點解查嚟查去冇人查泥土既??新聞話德政府根據中招者既飲食習慣調查,點解查嚟查去都係查蔬菜(青瓜?有機芽菜???)

超過2600人舐咗野,佢地全部都係素食者???冇人食過肉??你冇睇錯呀...係真正既科技強國德國,唔係中國呀...

所以你問我點解德國佬查嚟查去都唔查肉類,咁就真係你問我我問邊個??係咪有心抹黑生機飲食呢???嗱..呢啲就叫陰謀論啦...唔係果啲咩咩黃金到2000蚊美國政府就會沒收民間黃金...黃金2000蚊算咩位呀???到5000先講野啦...

黃泰利 提到...

To Gordon

...必讀...

本人有珍藏第五版..哈哈

黃泰利 提到...

To Gordon

李天命的思考藝術....必讀

Joe 提到...

師兄好意指教,怎會介意?黃兄可以講多d點解德国佬為何不去查豬肉呢?李天命的書什多,第一本看哪一本最好呢?

初學者,可以看《破惘》,最易入手,亦超搞笑,一點都唔悶!例如論公平,何謂公平?李舉一例子:長腳跑手與短腳跑手比賽跑步,短腳跑手覺唔公平,要長腳跑手讓幾步,但讓幾多為之公平?讓太多,長腳跑手輸,對長腳跑手唔公平,讓太少沒意思,那如果讓到兩人同時過終點,咁比賽來做乜?

結論:公平不是指賽果的公平,而是過程,時下太多人不明白,墮入公平陷阱。如平機會!

嘉芙蓮 提到...

黃泰利
所以試過之後就算了, 我d藝術細胞局限在欣賞層面,未能發展更高層次, 唯有在打golf, 或運動如游泳達到目的. new age 音樂可能真係加左料,不過聽講電影真的可做到....

理性分析 提到...

黎趁吓熱鬧先...
李天命先生多年前在港台有開講一輯叫做「思考13輯(or章,吳記得左...)」的錄音節目,李君與不同範籌的嘉賓對抽,對話十分有趣兼充滿邏輯機鋒,如有途徑能取到錄音,值得再三回味啊!(仲有,當時李生是與港台DJ"何家麗"一起主持嘅)...

理性分析 提到...

蓮姐,
New age運動系係60年代西方年青人基於反戰(越戰)及對社會的不滿而引發的的一個反智運動,一群轉向尋求靈性開悟的年青人(Hippie),其中當代最有影響力的一隊樂隊--The Beatles(披頭四)成員甚至到印度尋找靈性Guru...及至近代將所有關系於靈性層面的活動((例如:Tarot占卜,星座運程,風水命理,水晶...)均納入New age範圍,依家甚至係外國信仰有二千多年的佛教(由其是密宗)都覺得有d d New age feel 添!而所謂New age人士大都傾向綠色生活及和平博愛主義者..


其中有緣閱讀過幾位近代開悟大師的著作,對現實世界開了另一扇門...

OSHO奧修
J. Krishnamurti克里希那穆提(中文本由台灣"胡因夢"女士譯)
Jane Roberts--賽斯

Gordon 提到...

哦,那我可能誤會了new age的意思了。我提到的 秋仔園地 網站是有大量new world order 的资料。

Gordon 提到...

泰利兄, joe兄,

李天命的《破惘》已讀,他的思考方法確有可取之處,謝謝推介

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