2011年5月20日 星期五

儲存金銀的煩惱

Read the last post and can't resist posting this. Just for laughs.

58 則留言:

Lisa 提到...

笑死 !

Cefull 提到...

唯有「當積財寶在天上」啦... :-)

chapman 提到...

THE DOG IS SO CUTE!!

kidthief 提到...

that is a cute dog
it was nicely done

If anyone is interested...

A Comparative Chronology of Money
Monetary History from Ancient Times to the Present Day


http://projects.exeter.ac.uk/RDavies/arian/amser/chrono.html

大風暴 提到...

笑片一段

大風暴 提到...

金價上升速度比銀價快了

kidthief 提到...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7qIhDdST27g&feature=share

The Secret of Oz
it has a very very good point
it does not matter what forms money take, if its gold, silver, copper, fiat, wood anything.

The thing that matter MOST is WHO CONTROL ITS QUANTITY

kidthief 提到...

gold bugs believe that gold should be use as money

but who owns the most gold and rights to gold underground???
Bankers

for your to be better off after the dollar crisis than before the crisis you have to have as least as much wealth as before the crisis

So basically a return to a gold standard is in the best interest of holders of gold ie bankers and gold bugs like us (assume we are small potatoes we don`t matter). But it is not in the best interest of society as a whole.

Assume we return to a gold money society, banks and some government which holds almost ALL the gold on Earth could do whatever they want, in their best interest. They could contract the gold supply, control liquidity as they did in the great depression in US.

You would have people without work. Unless you have lots of money (gold) otherwise you cant employ people to work or find food/work. Hopefully we would all find a piece of land where we can grow food on, or have cows/pigs/chickens etc

Mayer Amsched Rothchild "Permit me to issue and control the money of the nation and I care not who makes its laws"

As Joe said and hopefully I did not misunderstand what he was pointing out. Greenback were fiat and issue by government directly. There was no backing of assets any kind what so ever. However there was no concentration of power assuming that government represents the people. (China's government fail this requirement) Banks could not control the amount of money circulating. The greenback were not DEBT, which the banks hate because they could not collect interest.

FED would have WORK if it was a part of government, responsible to the public at large (no bank shareholders/control), did expand and contract the money supply as it was SUPPOSE TO.

This model would have work if you look at savings and loan bank in Iceland Sweden. Savings and loan = banks that DOES NOT use fractional reserve banking. Every dollar lend out is every dollar in savings+equity. Credit Union works the same way.

We all know that the economy in US is terrible. At the federal and state level they are xxxx. However one state + one bank is actually doing well, The bank of North Dakota using the model mention above.

As mention above as well, Sweden and Iceland have savings and loan which were taken over by private banks in Sweden, and privatize in Iceland. Look at what happen to Iceland. Only 50 or so S&L remains in Sweden. They are talking about reforming and creating new S&L in Iceland and Sweden. Hopefully they dont join the EU.

Thomas Jefferson: "I wish it were possible to obtain a single amendment to our constitution... taking from the federal government the power of borrowing.

No borrowing = No debt = No one could control money supply.

匿名 提到...

Re: kidthief

Fully understand your statements and also thanks sharing the movie, though, what is your opinion?

Gold, silver, or wait until the new honest money?

Generation Next

kidthief 提到...

RE: Generation Next

Well I will suggest holding gold and silver. If you can't beat the banker (control by the wealthy) be the wealthy, buy gold.

Who owns the most gold?
US, NOT the Government or the Treasury, but the US FED, who owns the US Fed?
Bankers...own by shareholders, but control by the wealthy individuals (they use to control half the world wealth...what about now?)

So there is a high chance when the dollar or fiat currency collapse to either return to gold as money which has limit quantity or SDR (special drawing rights by IMF/WB)

IMF/WB=Socialism=(Communism/Fabianism) since SDR is fiat money...it would just be another cycle, hopefully it would be in future generations, and future generations were taught much better than our and previous generations.

In the beginning there would be time where it practice sound money policy (limit quantity) but than there would be some kind of need to "borrow" money such as war, lending etc. So for SDR to succeed or fail it really depend if there is debt(borrowing+interest) if it does than it keep be gone.

so in short gold and (maybe) silver should be collect not as commodities but as possible money in the future. If SDR is use as money, and is sound, than go with SDR, but the possibility of SDR failing because of increase supply like the US dollar is likely. Keep as much gold and silver and educate future generation as much as possible.

One question is could gold as money be contract and expand at will? If it could who have control over it?

kidthief 提到...

Forgot to mention that only one metal either gold or silver is money. There could be time when both is money but wont last forever

匿名 提到...

RE: kidthief

As I mentioned before, I am not an insider and not able to conclude any observed situation.

To answer your question of whether gold as money can be contracted and expanded at will, I can only return with two questions:

1.Who decide how much gold to use as money at the start?
2.Who control the use of the remaining hoarded and new refined gold?

The answers of these questions do not matter, these only dictate how easy the money supply can be controlled.

To echo you last response, the original US constitution mandated bimetallism, this was until 1973 as silver demonetized by the notorious Crime of '73, the remaining gold-linked dollar was ended by Nixon in 1971, long, not long? Hard to say. This solely depends on the needs of the Power Elite.

Generation Next

匿名 提到...

RE: kidthief

To continue your though, the next mind game is to determine if there is an undergoing “change hand” of the control of monetary supply, and how this will unfold.

Karl Marx predicted that the capitalism will inevitably end as a result of class struggle. We saw these end game scenarios in Russia, France, China and so on. Few, if there are any, turned out with no blood shed.

The similarity of Marx's “class struggle” and Still's “change control of quantity of monetary supply” are that both will trigger a political reform of some sorts.

Yes, it does not matter of what is the medium of exchange, gold, silver, SDR, even a wooden stick are just the same good. It is the people behind the selected form of money that matter. Therefore let's look at who were and who are in the changing hand process:

Classical Marx scenario
Proletariat – representing the livelihood survives by selling their labor
Bourgeoisie – representing anyone who lives from the exploitation to others
The class struggle was simply the rich versus the poor while the later were directed to fright back from exploitation. There was a very clear line to separate the two groups, but as we advance to the modern age, the two classes transform to a mixed role as suggested by FOFOA, that I see the point:

“Modern” scenario
Savers – people who save any excess
Debtors – people who get what they did not produce (by speculation, tax, debt, print etc)
Savers in most cases are also debtors and vice versus, so it complicated the situation, but one point is sure: one will exploit the hoarded wealth of the savers at the maximum extend whenever he/she can stand on the Debtors position. eg. when I try to earn my way by house flipping

It seems that you are from the Saver camp, prefer hoarding Gold/Silver to protect your wealth, and in the hope to push the other camp to repay their debts by harder money. The is to ensure you wake up in the right bed in the morning of the judgment day, and of course to outrun the others.

But, which camp the Power Elite is working with? Will they change camp? Can it be more than one group of Power Elites?

The famous dictum of ANOTHER “Follow in the footsteps of the giants” is still true IMHO. It is just difficult to identify who is the strongest giant?

I sleep in the right bed I precieved but may wake up to find out that it is the wrong one.

Generation Next

kidthief 提到...

1.Who decide how much gold to use as money at the start?
2.Who control the use of the remaining hoarded and new refined gold?

Most likely the elite/banker with the most gold and gold bugs + people who think gold is sound/god money.

I believe most of them is under control by elites or by governments under their control. Of course there should be exception, but mines can be nationalized/confiscated at the government (elite/banker)’s will. When gold is money I assume people with gold would start using it like money and not hoard it. No one hoard fiat paper in their home…or well very little.

On the topic of bimetallism (gold/silver) as money, I don’t think it would work… For example in the past gold is set to equal 15 silvers in USA. But then more gold is discover but the ratio is still set at 1 to 15. The ratio should have gone down but remain fix. People could use 1oz of gold exchange it for 15oz, when it should be lower like 14oz or 13oz. Silver being scarce, should be worth more in a free market but since there is a conversion ratio free market would fail. People would favour the 15oz silver require instead of that 1oz gold. Which result in hoarding of silver which sooner or later result in demonetization of silver. Unless the ratio be review and renew every so often, but this would encourage excessive speculation, and could go only one direction, silver value would only go up like what most of us here believe in. Sooner or later with silver depleting (but could be recover from recycling) silver is not very good for money.

For me I would switch from silver to gold at a certain point when I think gold is under valuable and silver over value, because gold have a higher chance of being money. Like I mention before, the elite/rich/bankers have it and want gold as money when fiat bubble burst.

kidthief 提到...

Regarding the second post about saver and debtors. I think the elite would put themselves in the best position possible. To me they should have 3 characteristics: understanding of money, cold blood and no patriotism. As you mention yourself it’s a mix of saver and debtors. There are very few pure savers(elites) but there could be pure debtors(average American) and us both saver and debtors. Of course the elites are not pure debtors. They currently position themselves to rip the fruits of debtors in the world that is under their control because of fiat money. Also they should hold the most gold. They don’t care if the fiat game continue because they are winning. If the tides turn the hold the most gold, so they won’t lose either. Unless we start using sea shell as money then that would create a problem for them…but it’s also a problem for us. We should also play the fiat money game to the best of our ability such as don’t take out a big loan if it can be avoided…lending out fiat money taking interest or dividends etc. It is foolish and dangerous to place one bet, which you have no guaranty of winning when you could place multiple bet.

I sleep in all the beds and when I wake up I am sure I would have slept in one of the right bed.

嘉芙蓮 提到...

re GN, Kidthief,
sounds we have no choice but merry go round and build up our bed to sleep on, tiring haha
btw, have u guys thought about if being a "saver", whats the net % you can save after all the expense and tax? To me being a "saver" is only for the rich, not for ordinary people. For normal ppl, the more your earn (salary and SMB), the less you can save.

匿名 提到...

once there is a discussion in english, number of reply drops...HAHA.

TO Kidthief, I do not understand that the model u mentioned below

"This model would have work if you look at savings and loan bank in Iceland Sweden. Savings and loan = banks that DOES NOT use fractional reserve banking. Every dollar lend out is every dollar in savings+equity. Credit Union works the same way.

We all know that the economy in US is terrible. At the federal and state level they are xxxx. However one state + one bank is actually doing well, The bank of North Dakota using the model mention above."

If dollar in = dollar out, that is no reserve in bank, which cause a bigger problem. When I was a F.5 student, my Econ teacher told me that becoz law requires bank to make some reserve, so it cannot lend all her money out. The total money "created" by fraction reserve is 1/reserve%, if the % is 20%, so the total money created at the end will be 5 times for the original saving. If it is no reserve, that is 0%, 1/0=infinity...So would you mind share more on this issue?

Daniel

匿名 提到...

Megalomaniac! Bitte sagen, dass die chinesische Sprache!

匿名 提到...

Re Kidthief

Bimetallism is the case like always, it is only if the two things were both metal or not.

Ancient China, we have Gold, Silver and Copper, but 95% of the economy focused on copper for daily use and silver for paying tax, where gold was limited to very privileged few. Bimetallism? Seems we only had ‘hard money’ ah?

The USA in the 18xx, Silver, Gold and paper money that was not entirely fiat, the government could do something for the gold/silver ratio, so it seems to me that silver was not as “hard” as gold. There was ‘run’ of gold whenever silver was overvalued against gold, and there would be lot of silver around if the government tried to undervalue silver, silver available for loan at low cost. People were robbed the same way like now by contraction and expansion of silver supply.

If you look closely:

Return to gold standard: does not mean you need to BUY all the gold as your final destination. Stocking up gold is for the only for the ultimate purpose of SELLING it. This is to support whatever paper currency the government wanted for circulation. The dollar was strong because the presidents before Nixon were willing to sell gold for it. [After the closing of the gold window in 1971, the dollar was dumped by everyone, but soon got strong again as the world found crude a necessity, and ME accepted to sell oil for dollar, long long long story from ANOTHER if you are interested]

Return to silver standard: it is opposite to gold standard, if a country wants to use it as money, like France in the past, one needs to BUY all the excess, and need to continue the buying if someone wants to sell it to the government, buying silver to support your currency…. Sounds crazy ah? Search the “Reference Point” from fofoa site for an interesting article.

Generation Next

匿名 提到...

Re Kidthief

Bimetallism is the case like always, it is only if the two things were both metal or not.

Ancient China, we have Gold, Silver and Copper, but 95% of the economy focused on copper for daily use and silver for paying tax, where gold was limited to very privileged few. Bimetallism? Seems we only had ‘hard money’ ah?

The USA in the 18xx, Silver, Gold and paper money that was not entirely fiat, the government could do something for the gold/silver ratio, so it seems to me that silver was not as “hard” as gold. There was ‘run’ of gold whenever silver was overvalued against gold, and there would be lot of silver around if the government tried to undervalue silver, silver available for loan at low cost. People were robbed the same way like now by contraction and expansion of silver supply.

If you look closely:

Return to gold standard: does not mean you need to BUY all the gold as your final destination. Stocking up gold is for the only for the ultimate purpose of SELLING it. This is to support whatever paper currency the government wanted for circulation. The dollar was strong because the presidents before Nixon were willing to sell gold for it. [After the closing of the gold window in 1971, the dollar was dumped by everyone, but soon got strong again as the world found crude a necessity, and ME accepted to sell oil for dollar, long long long story from ANOTHER if you are interested]

Return to silver standard: it is opposite to gold standard, if a country wants to use it as money, like France in the past, one needs to BUY all the excess, and need to continue the buying if someone wants to sell it to the government, buying silver to support your currency…. Sounds crazy ah? Search the “Reference Point” from fofoa site for an interesting article.

Generation Next

匿名 提到...

Re Kidthief

Today, we have Bi-monetary system, gold and fiat, floating exchange rate (yes, I know you; you want to say it is a manipulated ex-rate). Following the footsteps of the giant, everyone in the nation level creates fiat, spend fiat but hoard gold. Who wanted to sell gold? Yes, one US president tried to sell to corner the gold market, failed and refuse to go for the next presidency race. I am very interested to know what BIS does as the agent to settle physical gold change-hand at the international level.

And today again, how silver fit between gold and fiat? In the old days, silver could serve as the ‘soft’ part of the monetary system, but never can achieve the softness as fiat. Softness means expand/contract with ease, silver fell behind fiat; hardness means rigid against debasement, silver fail behind gold. Embarrassing ah?

So, that may be one explanation for why Kidthief wants to sell silver for gold, how close am I get to your point?

Generation Next

匿名 提到...

RE: 嘉芙蓮

I heard someone said for the average person, it is better not to keep eggs by only one basket to diversify risks. I also heard someone said for the professional, it is better to keep all the eggs into only one basket and watch it carefully.

Basket, bed, same thing, one cannot have too many. Maybe I need not to find the right bed but the right one to sleep with me in two beds separately, and willing to share our beds if one of them turns out to be the right bed when we wake up. [Smile]

To response to your point on how much% to save, a normal person can still squeeze out the extra buck by transferring your expenses to your company (food, transport, phone, broadband connection) if you are working for someone, if cannot, find another job. Or to avoid lot of tax expenses legally if you run your own business, fire/fry your accountant if you are not. After all these possible expenses reduction, I save all the excess, minus those for enjoying some of my life, of course.

Generation Next

匿名 提到...

RE: 嘉芙蓮

I heard someone said for the average person, it is better not to keep eggs by only one basket to diversify risks. I also heard someone said for the professional, it is better to keep all the eggs into only one basket and watch it carefully.

Basket, bed, same thing, one cannot have too many. Maybe I need not to find the right bed but the right one to sleep with me in two beds separately, and willing to share our beds if one of them turns out to be the right bed when we wake up. [Smile]

To response to your point on how much% to save, a normal person can still squeeze out the extra buck by transferring your expenses to your company (food, transport, phone, broadband connection) if you are working for someone, if cannot, find another job. Or to avoid lot of tax expenses legally if you run your own business, fire/fry your accountant if you are not. After all these possible expenses reduction, I save all the excess, minus those for enjoying some of my life, of course.

Generation Next

匿名 提到...

RE: 嘉芙蓮

I heard someone said for the average person, it is better not to keep eggs by only one basket to diversify risks. I also heard someone said for the professional, it is better to keep all the eggs into only one basket and watch it carefully.

Basket, bed, same thing, one cannot have too many. Maybe I need not to find the right bed but the right one to sleep with me in two beds separately, and willing to share our beds if one of them turns out to be the right bed when we wake up. [Smile]

To response to your point on how much% to save, a normal person can still squeeze out the extra buck by transferring your expenses to your company (food, transport, phone, broadband connection) if you are working for someone, if cannot, find another job. Or to avoid lot of tax expenses legally if you run your own business, fire/fry your accountant if you are not. After all these possible expenses reduction, I save all the excess, minus those for enjoying some of my life, of course.

Generation Next

匿名 提到...

匿名提到...

Megalomaniac! Bitte sagen, dass die chinesische Sprache!

-----------------------

老兄,在這裡說英語也不一定是自大狂,說德語不自大嗎?但事實用英語討論,參觀的比參與的少,查下字典不好嗎?不材也是靠查字典才看明白您的留言

Hi Joe, sorry for duplicating the threads, please help to delete, thanks.

Generation Next

匿名 提到...

匿名提到...

Megalomaniac! Bitte sagen, dass die chinesische Sprache!

-----------------------

老兄,在這裡說英語也不一定是自大狂,說德語不自大嗎?但事實用英語討論,參觀的比參與的少,查下字典不好嗎?不材也是靠查字典才看明白您的留言

Hi Joe, sorry for duplicating the threads, please help to delete, thanks.

Generation Next

匿名 提到...

匿名提到...

Megalomaniac! Bitte sagen, dass die chinesische Sprache!

-----------------------

老兄,在這裡說英語也不一定是自大狂,說德語不自大嗎?但事實用英語討論,參觀的比參與的少,查下字典不好嗎?不材也是靠查字典才看明白您的留言

Hi Joe, sorry for duplicating the threads, please help to delete, thanks.

Generation Next

匿名 提到...

once there is a discussion in english, number of reply drops...HAHA. (此句有看不起不懂外語的朋友而沾沾自喜....HaHA...請道歉!)

GN兄,
其實看得出你的中文程度及對事件分析能力都超高,為何不大方用母語與網友分享,而只作小圈子交流,有違此博之原意,更有Show off 之嫌疑。

如有冒犯之處請多包含!

匿名 提到...

especially those rubbish from Big Fly.

匿名 提到...

德文兄,先謝過誇獎,不材真沾沾自喜也。
Daneil兄有否爾所指之心,人言人殊,也不作論。
愚在此用洋文言則每每和者多而言之有物,用母語則和寡,憾甚。
洋文母語,圈子孰大孰小,則吾不知所言耳!
至於有否冒犯,所謂可與言而不與之言、失人,何有冒犯?
那不材用母語發言,可有show off?

Generation Next

Gordon 提到...

至於有否冒犯,所謂可與言而不與之言、失人,何有冒犯?
----------------------------
GN,

You right!haha, Let me drop my life for Gentlemen.

In my view of selection holding gold or silver is simple, both of them are real money. But silver is under value than gold in this stage and has lower unit price per oz which I can hold more.

When I would sell my silver completely?

I may sell all silver for buy a house when the ratio of silver and gold is changed around 5:1 or 2:1.

This expatiation is based on the information regrading of the actual physical silver is less than gold in the world present and the silver is un-replaceable for hi-tech technology and medical usage.

匿名 提到...

yeah, once switch to English, rubbish Big Fly is gone. good!

匿名 提到...

Big Fly is the source of the pollution

kidthief 提到...

RE: Katharine

In regards to the % of $ once can save as saver, it really depends on the person. But as to the $ amount and not %, than it is always the big player that can save more. A rich person with 100,000 income save 10%=10,000, the same 10,000 for a 50,000 income person would be 20%. So in terms of $$$ it is always better if you are rich and have lots of money. Normal people earning more would likely spend more(my observation which including myself)…but one could still save the same money or even more if that is what one would want. Like GN mention, you could set up companies and shift your expenses there.

kidthief 提到...

RE: Daniel

Well this is my understanding which could be wrong. Under “fractional” reserve banking, bank could create extra money and need reserve just in case all the extra money need to be redeem/withdrawn at teller/atm. Somehow I come across two different scenario of reserve banking but there is only one which use fractional reserve banking…assuming a 10% reserve

1) customer deposit $100, bank lend out $90 keeping $10(10%) as reserve for withdrawals. No fiat money is create in this case

2) customer deposit $100, bank create $900 out of nothing, lend the $900 out and keep the $100 deposit as reserve (10%). Fiat money is created in this case.

Banks have to have reserve, but DOES NOT have to have fractional banking.
Hope this answer your question.

kidthief 提到...

RE: GN

Hey you got some interesting points. Always interested in listening to people’s stories haha

It seems always the people who have control of money supply control the world/countries.
I guess what I am saying is that it is difficult for a country to run both gold and silver and copper at the same time. It is like a country have 3 different currencies and every min/sec there is a new PM FX rate… In the short term of course it is possible but in the long run I believe one would overtake the others. Like the one where people have more faith in. But I think that most likely it would be the one where elites have control over it.

As to your last point I don’t think it is crazy. I thought that is how it work. So long as government have enough money(printing). Buying (whatever the standard is ) up when given and selling it when on demand. It should work. Benjamin Graham propose something similar: a war time reserve(not only gold, but he suggest the return of silver as well plus adding commodities that would not perish/decay like wool and cotton etc) as oppose to Bretton Wood. But in the end Bretton Wood was in favour. Any chance you can give me fofoa’s site?

匿名 提到...

support English discussion, support no big-fly pollution~!

嘉芙蓮 提到...

kidthief,
I understand your logic there, just personal opinion, it wont work for most people if we need to count inflation. For me, I have other plans in place already. As an average person for example, able to save 20k a month is not bad, a year means 340k, 20 yrs means 6.8m (exclude inflation, and disregard investment return), if u need to spend 6.8M for 30 yrs with inflation, how much u can spend per month? Maybe the reality is ugly. Not to mention illness, accident might happen...

btw fofoa: http://fofoa.blogspot.com/

kidthief 提到...

RE 嘉芙蓮

thanks for the site, the reality is truly ugly@@

匿名 提到...

RE: Gordon
.............
may sell all silver for buy a house when the ratio of silver and gold is changed around 5:1 or 2:1.
This expatiation is based on the information regrading of the actual physical silver is less than gold in the world present and the silver is un-replaceable for hi-tech technology and medical usage. …..........

The ground of your statement (or target) lies on S : G ratio will shoot from currently 4X : 1 to a whooping 2 : 1. To support this target, I can see few hypothesizes from the “Currency War 3” of Master Song. These are medical usage, pest control for the wooden house in the US, increase solar panel demand etc etc Let's look at them one by one,
Medical use → who control the approval of medical application or new drug?
Pest control → is there really no other choice?
Solar panel → the solar panel takes 50+ years to produce the same amount of energy that fabricate it....
The price of silver is manipulated, yes, I agree, but it is for sure not only be suppressed. Please look at those main participant in this silver suppression conspiracy, the Bullion Banks, Miners, ETFs, Refiners, Mints, Retail Investors and the Industrial Silver Users. See the site for a good description on how they works together http://goldchat.blogspot.com/ (top left corner). The price shall be manipulate in BOTH directions for the good of the few in the expenses of the large.
One significant influence of silver supply is SLV, see this for how this can impact http://www.kitco.com/reports/KitcoNews20110428AS_silver_etf.html, see this for how SLV operates http://www.mining.com/2011/01/14/silver-and-the-impact-of-slv-the-physical-silver-etf/
For silver production, beside the Canadian claims of silver material shortage, see the others, like the Perth Mint, see here for how they see the availability of silver http://www.perthmintbullion.com/blog/blog/11-04-21/Expanding_Our_Silver_Bar_Manufacturing_Capacity.aspx

Generation Next

匿名 提到...

RE: Gordon (Cont..)

If you like technical analysis, or some history, see this http://www.metalaugmentor.com/eforum/?p=5704, you may have a second opinion of G:S ratio
There are also handful of -ve opinion to silver price, see one of the many examples http://www.321gold.com/editorials/moriarty/moriarty042511.html, for some second views
Finally, this site http://www.zerohedge.com/article/eric-sprott-expect-gold-silver-ratio-hit-single-digits may help you to re-think the G:S ration and also the “supply” of physical silver.
All in all, I am fans of silver, and own an amount that is significant to me. As I said before, I prefer to put eggs in one basket (gold and silver), watch it carefully, and make sure I have the right basket.

Generation Next

匿名 提到...

RE: Gordon (Cont..)

If you like technical analysis, or some history, see this http://www.metalaugmentor.com/eforum/?p=5704, you may have a second opinion of G:S ratio
There are also handful of -ve opinion to silver price, see one of the many examples http://www.321gold.com/editorials/moriarty/moriarty042511.html, for some second views
Finally, this site http://www.zerohedge.com/article/eric-sprott-expect-gold-silver-ratio-hit-single-digits may help you to re-think the G:S ration and also the “supply” of physical silver.
All in all, I am fans of silver, and own an amount that is significant to me. As I said before, I prefer to put eggs in one basket (gold and silver), watch it carefully, and make sure I have the right basket.

Generation Next

Gordon 提到...

Dear GN,
Thanks a lot.
I have read a few articles at the website you posted.I would like to have a few points sharing with you and have your comments pls:
1.I found that Bob didn't count the real inflation rate on the silver price in past and now. He might forget the different of purchasing power of USD$5 in 70's and now;
2.Bob said "The actual ratio of silver to gold in the earth's crust is not 16 to 1.
It's more like between 20 or 26 or 64 to one. This is not an absolute fact, these are opinions from experts but no experts conclude the ratio is 16-1. Go to Wikipedia and do the math for yourself.
If he is right, the record of bullion in China is flake. Joe presented that the ratio of G:S in nature is ~1:16 and record at 明朝. Moreover, he is not Chinese, he might don't fully understand the intent of China about the role of phyiscal silver at China in future.
They are too hard to a Plasterer, but I will keep looking into these good article, thx again.

P.S. Hehe, he would get hit if he posted his below statment in here.
"The answer, of course, and ignored by all the silver "GURUS" is that if you buy low and don't sell ever, you don't make any profit. That may be the dumbest investment advice I have ever heard.

匿名 提到...

Hi Gordon

You have the valid point of the much different of dollar’s purchasing power when it was $5/Oz compare to currently 36/Oz of silver. But, please note that he did one round of silver profit taking when silver was 35/Oz in 1980, when the different in dollar’s purchasing power in the period of 1970-1980 was not as significant as compared to 1980-2011.

In my opinion, he did make a fortune on silver, the fortune even out run the profit he made in gold.

For your second point relating to the silver availability, G/S ration of 1:16 may be correct, may be not. Our mind, the Chinese mind, is greatly influenced by the concept from the Ming dynasty. Indeed, I read a book about the silver supply of China during the Ming and Qing period, and the book says during that period, most of the China’s silver was imported from Japan. I could not find out that book now, but this fact (hopefully it is a fact) is also mentioned in the Currency War 3 from Mr. Song Hungbin. Assuming this is true; I’ve find that the G/S ratio of 1:16 stands on weak ground, since this would assume the Chinese monetary policy makers during the Ming/Qing period possessed certain knowledge of the potential underground content of silver and gold over both China and Japan. To me this is not convincing.

Furthermore, does the physical ratio of a precious metal to gold a major drive of price?
There are many metal types much rare than gold, how come gold has a higher price? I see the G/S ratio can be a factor to influence the price of silver against gold, buy there is not convincing to make it as a major factor, nor the G/S ratio in the past can be a reliable reference to the future G/S ratio.

Price of something shall be governed by:

1. Scarcity <- yes
2. Flow (speed of changing hands)
3. Who control the flow?
4. Demand (investment, jewelry, industry etc)

It is difficult to fit in the G/S ratio as the major drive.

I like this type of discussion.

Generation Next

nwo24601 提到...

問題是當白銀價格高企時,白銀的開採的速度及工業的替代都是動態的,另隱藏的白銀數量(銀制品)很難估算清楚。

太高的目標有點冒險。

匿名 提到...

Re: NWO

我兄所言甚是,追蹤動態白銀供應之發展實仍吾等銀甲安身立命之重,重之又重。利之所在,殺頭生意也大有人幹,區區小技如urban mining, recycling, silver party等等實非難事,只欠銀價東風吹起而已。執意押寶,不作審時度世、隨機應變,存心幸而免之、或以偏篕全但求安心,實非金銀甲之道也。

Generation Next

Gordon 提到...

哈哈,關於最高G/S比例,我是預算埋以下最重要兩個因素的,未知兩位師兄是否有何高見呢?

1.大陸政府的購買力。大陸白銀礦藏豐富,能每年大量出產,以前剛剛開放時唔識野,就賤價出口換廢紙,市場上出口量世界第一。但早幾年終於醒覺,唔再出口,現在私自出口嚴重者最高刑罰是死刑並且沒收財產!

大陸大力推薦人民儲藏實金銀,同時佢自己也已經瞓身入去。大陸差不多乜野行業、物資、專利權的定價權都被歐美佔據了,唯一有希望擁有定價權的便是白銀。

而且,美元系統的弱點正正是實金銀。實金就點都唔夠歐美玩的,但實銀呢?兩位當然也知道這幾十年來,歐美的中央銀行不斷借出庫房內的實銀給熊仔(已死)、魔奸等,用以質低現貨銀價,及補貼市場出產不足。也因此令工業界消耗性使用實銀時有蔗渣既價錢,燒鵝既享受多年。

可惜長此下來,魔奸沽空的合約就越多而歐美手中實銀越少。相反,大陸就越儲越多實銀係手。我覺得到左某一個臨界點,大陸手中有足夠的實銀以作市場定價權時,需要時,她便可以將實銀化作可隨時操作引爆美元的按鈕了。

2.大陸同胞的購買力。大陸同胞中擁有無限購買力的1%,現在看中了香港的房產,香港房產便高處未算高。當大陸撳掣要引爆美元時,joe兄經常提的gold fever便會發生!不過我相信silver fever更勁!
如果金價到USD5000時,而銀價USD150,那其餘99%的全中國13億同胞便只有進入這門檻較低的silver fever中,直到有機會G/S比例1:X為止。

綜合以上兩點,簡單講,我相信歐美不嬲鍾意黃金,唔鍾意白銀,因為佢唔可以無限期操控到白銀,所以想白銀係世上消失,而中國大陸相反。在金銀熱時,歐美和大陸必然以國家前途對賭。買白銀,即係買大陸呢邊。

我相信G/S比例1:x,是在silver fever時有機會出現。

匿名 提到...

Gordon兄:
得兄賞光回覆,且言中有物,有來有回,真個不亦樂乎。

我兄預期金銀之比為1:2,其理有二; 其壹是我國政府屯銀以取其定價之權,謀以此為巔覆佢老美元之藥引。其貳為絕大多數我大中華同胞在佢老美元爆大鑊之日,會傾盡家財購入白銀,以我國人多財富,銀價便如嫦娥奔月。

此間是非曲直,緩急前後,萬望我兄再三啄磨,慎思之。愚實不材,有三問;
其一,屯物以取其定價之權,其理甚明,佢老美屯金,我國屯銀,定金銀比例之權誰孰?
其二,既然我兄仍視金貴銀賤,同胞中富者甚眾,何以九成九同胞捨金取銀?
其三,行金本位是以見鈔即付實金為信心之本,銀本位如何?見鈔付銀,見銀付金?
Generation Next

Gordon 提到...

GN兄,
小弟一介粗人,不敢托大,實已盡言半年所思之得。愚雖不材,試回我兄三問,萬勿見笑:

其一:定金銀比例之權誰孰?

定金銀比例之權,第一是以行政命令發出。可以由政府,例如以前美國曾以35美元兌換一安士黃金,但如果以今日世上60T美債和80T人民幣的法幣,以及660T以上的衍生金融產品來兌換黃金和白銀,可能USD十萬以上兌換一安士黃金了,那白銀最少也要USD2500兌換一安士白銀。

第二,我覺得更大可能是用市場厘定用多少價錢兌換(不是價值,兩者不同)。是金銀現貨交易市場!

現在於香港金銀業貿易場攪得鬧哄哄的黃金公斤條交易,並可以人民幣計價。從此端倪,我估計是大陸為防將來金銀定價權大戰時comex或Loco突然關閉停市及取代它們,以做準備。

其二:何以九成九同胞捨金取銀?

歷史上的權貴們也未有能盡收天下所有金銀,以國內房屋為例,炒還炒,最後總要以群眾能支付的底線為基礎,並不會所有房屋都是那1%的。金銀亦同。
別墅誰不想擁有,但平民房始終蓋得最多,而且是由平民擁有的。

其三:行金本位是以見鈔即付實金為信心之本,銀本位如何?見鈔付銀,見銀付金?

此題極難!如金銀本位已定,則金銀熱已過已。且涉及國策之根本,變化甚大。我猜joe兄心中已有想法,而且應該在馬田系列下一集有所啟示。

我先大膽胡猜一下,錯謬之處敬請指正。

中國並非想在將來實行銀本位,因銀本位策略先天不足,現今世上實銀過少,如實行銀本位,其定價必然偏高於銀的內在價值。當受到金融狙擊時,容易受制於人。因為大陸還是會用外匯出入境管制,人民幣應該最多變成新人民幣,仍然是信用貨幣,並不與金銀掛勾,實金銀只是她與世上其她不想接受新人民幣的國家交易時所用,在中國內交易時則規定用新人民幣。在中國境內實金銀只是一種極昂貴的其中一種商品,可在公開的交易市場買賣,但政府並不擔保兌換率!

依"貨幣3"所寫,人民幣正是從沒有實金銀支持下誕生並成功長期運作,所以將來的關鍵是共慘黨到時能否頂得住實際民生物質運作所需(例如糧食),即通漲是也,能頂得住一段長時間的話,新人民幣即能運作下去,如不能的話,通漲失控,即亡黨之期近已。

Gordon 提到...

補充第一問題:

不依靠大陸發功,G/S比例是沒有可能到1:X的。
只有將來中美在金銀現貨交易市場大戰時,如果歐美實行金本位,中國也有大把實金,但必須另一方面拼盡地將白銀價格拉高到盡量接近黃金,而且擁有定價權,現今高科技工業界不能沒有白銀,那才會在國際金融市場有一席位,那才不會被對手拋離。

匿名 提到...

Hi Gordon

Again thanks for your serious reply, thanks a lot. Te following are my reply, I am looking forward to learn more from you indeed:

1. Your answer does not develope an convicing approach to describe who will get the right to fix the G/S ratio. Under your expected situation when the US has most of the gold and accepts payment only in gold (or in gold terms), China gets most of silver and accepts only silver terms payment. If they want to trade, China needs to exchange some silver for gold in order to paid for the US goods, then the US needs to sell gold for silver for buying Chinese products. I was actually asking who will and can mandate how many ounce of silver can exchange one ounce of gold.
I am sorry for not making my question clear enough. What I expected to see from your answer were:
a. the conditions needed for one government to excercise and maintain this ratio
b. what conditions currelty China and USA have on hands?
c. what are those critical influencing factors that can change the result?

2. Your answer re-iterated on silver is the poor man's gold and people buy silver just becase it is more affortable. How about those 1/10 ounce coins? If it is still too expensive, how about a 1/50 ounce coin? How about the extra supply of silver when people sell silver under the "no fever like gold fever" situation?

3. Under gold standard, a country needs to allow unlimited redeem (SELL) of gold to support its currency. Under silver standard, it is more complex I think, there are two conditions, 1) a country needs to BUY silver whenever anyone want to sell, in unlimited quantity 2) the same currency must be accepted as payment for any other goods produced by that country, including its gold, in order to support its currency. If that silver standard will turns out to be sucessful, and if the country who runs this standard will get to a super-power, silver will start to flow into its government's.
For the shortage of silver you mentioned, I am not able to agree as there are not solid edvidents to convice me, at least yet.

I do agree with you that it is only China can drive the G/S ratio to 1:X, but I am not getting all the needed supporting information to confirm this view.

Generation Next

匿名 提到...

Hi Gordon

Again thanks for your serious reply, thanks a lot. Te following are my reply, I am looking forward to learn more from you indeed:

1. Your answer does not develope an convicing approach to describe who will get the right to fix the G/S ratio. Under your expected situation when the US has most of the gold and accepts payment only in gold (or in gold terms), China gets most of silver and accepts only silver terms payment. If they want to trade, China needs to exchange some silver for gold in order to paid for the US goods, then the US needs to sell gold for silver for buying Chinese products. I was actually asking who will and can mandate how many ounce of silver can exchange one ounce of gold.
I am sorry for not making my question clear enough. What I expected to see from your answer were:
a. the conditions needed for one government to excercise and maintain this ratio
b. what conditions currelty China and USA have on hands?
c. what are those critical influencing factors that can change the result?

2. Your answer re-iterated on silver is the poor man's gold and people buy silver just becase it is more affortable. How about those 1/10 ounce coins? If it is still too expensive, how about a 1/50 ounce coin? How about the extra supply of silver when people sell silver under the "no fever like gold fever" situation?

3. Under gold standard, a country needs to allow unlimited redeem (SELL) of gold to support its currency. Under silver standard, it is more complex I think, there are two conditions, 1) a country needs to BUY silver whenever anyone want to sell, in unlimited quantity 2) the same currency must be accepted as payment for any other goods produced by that country, including its gold, in order to support its currency. If that silver standard will turns out to be sucessful, and if the country who runs this standard will get to a super-power, silver will start to flow into its government's.
For the shortage of silver you mentioned, I am not able to agree as there are not solid edvidents to convice me, at least yet.

I do agree with you that it is only China can drive the G/S ratio to 1:X, but I am not getting all the needed supporting information to confirm this view.

Generation Next

Gordon 提到...

GN兄,
不客氣,有幸與我兄討論這題目,人生一大快事也。
我兄今次的第一問,已深入是否會有金銀本位的問題核心,以及中美將來10年的可能發展,難,極難!
非三言兩語可答。我雖有概念,但是從張近十本書以上閱讀後歸納出來,請給我數天時間整理有關資料,才可清晰表達。

先答第二問:宋鴻兵微博今天提到一段新聞合用,剛好借來一用。

"今天雅虎新闻:继黄金之后,印度人开始追逐白银。印度今年白银进口量将达到3500-4000吨,相对于黄金价格,白银更加便宜,深受印度普通人喜爱。有意思的是,印度的农村人口是白银的主力买家。孟买金银协会主席Prithviraj Saremal Kothari估计,75%的印度农民购买白银,印度的雨季将决定他们的白银购买力"

以印度人為例,他們喜歡黃金,肯定多於白銀。但如果印度農民的錢,只夠買1安士黃金或40安士白銀,實際表明他們較願意選擇白銀。

另外,我兄必知以現今全球熱錢的海量,只要傾注其中20%用以購入實金銀,即使全世界所有現藏金銀(包括回收),都推出市場販賣,也只會是杯水車薪。

第三問:中國跟美國不同,中國不會因債務違約而信譽破產,將來其法幣並非一定要與實銀掛鉤不可。中國人民幣一向是與全中國可買賣物資(例如米糧、棉花等,有經濟上利益等物)有限度掛鉤的,將來即使美國實行金本位,此制度亦很可能仍然維持不變。
有關輔助參考資料,稍後一起回覆吧。

kidthief 提到...

Hey guys,

What if G/S ratio is free flowing, depending on market? While one country's currency pig to either gold or silver.

a)To keep a "sound" monetary policy, when people lose faith in one country's own fiat currency, allowing it to be redeemed by any hard assets is a strong backing so long its not mud water or things that are common.

b)Believe it or not, China is the biggest producers of Gold and Silver, but they are importing as well. US on the other hand "should" have the highest gold reserve, but who knows... they don't hold it the FED does. It has been lease out, sold at cheap price etc, so no one know exactly how much gold there is.

c)I do not know what you meant by results...so i don't know of any critical influencing factors that can change the result.

When gold was cheap at xxx people were buying ounces, now people are buying grams and fractions of ounces. But I don't get this question either...it doesn't seems like a question or maybe I am missing something.

I see no problem for a country to be back by any hard commodities/assets. As we all know printing money is easy and cheap. The problem is if people are willing to sell you their gold and silver at that fix price. Normally there shouldn't be any problem until government start printing money and spending it until they can no longer be back...like United States.

For 2010 US debt is about 100% to GDP including ALL government debt Federal, States, Municipal.
Meanwhile China is only 20% to GDP, but if you included all the government borrowing (non private, state owned ventures/companies) their debt to GDP is also 100%.

Good thing about China's debt to GDP is that it is still growing, US is almost fix. US's debt should take down GDP since their economy is not growing currently at 14 trillion and they have to make huge interest payments. Although at the same debt per GDP level, China's GDP is at 5 trillion.

I hate GDP, and it is my belief that it is useless, but since many people believe in it, and well use it. Might as well share the info.

匿名 提到...

Gordon, thanks and will keep this discussion going after I get my hands free a bit later.

Kidthief:

Thanks and welcome, I don't know why there are more people to join a discussion if it is in English, my Chinese too bad?

To give you more backgrounds, I and Gordon are looking for positive and negative arguments to support gold silver ratio of 1:2 in long run.

FOFOA, has posted a new dead long post, I have not finished yet, but it is interesting.

Generation Next

kidthief 提到...

all FOFOA's post are long... still havent have time to completely read it, and understand it

looking forward to you guy's conclusion

匿名 提到...

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匿名 提到...

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