2011年5月18日 星期三

兩個問題

最近小弟處於工作波,很忙!但見大家咁熱烈,多咀加幾句。Gordon問:「好似好有道理咁喎,唔信你所講, 與你文章中所寫呈相反意見. 今篇文章事關重大,可能對有些人影響深遠, 觀音開庫唔會只係借出一萬幾千,我兄今次不如做件好事,寫多d啦.」

借錢買樓同借錢買金最大分別係,樓房你會再抵押給銀行才能取得低息,否則息率不知會多高?抵押了物業,遇上追債而還不起,會怎樣?斬倉是也,即是沒收你的物業,沒收完還會追收你的差價,Right!

黃金白銀會不會?如果有一日,你還不起,本身又沒有物業,銀行沒收你甚麼?黃金白銀!?白銀都還有機會給人找到,黃金呢?一百萬都只得十多條金條,一個月餅盒都放不完,那裡找?黃金最大功能就是輕易隱藏財富!這一點是物業完全沒法相比的!(先旨聲明,我絕對反對此等破壞合約及法律精神的行為,只是說出一種邏輯上的可能性!)

所以,當下借錢買金銀的息率跟沒有抵押的借貸根本沒有分別!那借完錢買金銀,再將金銀抵押給銀行,又可否取得低息呢?你可試試問銀行,佢真係彩你都有味!何解?因為息率難定!點難定?若然定得低,那豈不表示黃金有很好的抵押功能?若然定得高呢?那沒有抵押的私人信貸利率就要更高,到時市場上就會多出一個黃金抵押借貸利率,那利率市場對「某些人」來說就會變成無舵之舟了,那還得了?

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有網友聲言自創80後投資指數云云,詳情不得而知?所以好難討論!不過,從短短幾句說話而露出破綻,當中有一樣東西是沒有計算在內的,不過,在對方未言明前,又很難證實,若然此刻踢爆,對方可能又搬出修改版80後指數,到時真是口同鼻駁!沒意思!

26 則留言:

匿名 提到...

Joe, this topic sparks me for the dictum from FOA:

"My friend, debt is the very essence of fiat. As debt defaults, fiat is destroyed. This is where all these deflationists get their direction. Not seeing that hyperinflation is the process of saving debt at all costs, even buying it outright for cash. Deflation is impossible in today's dollar terms because policy will allow the printing of cash, if necessary, to cover every last bit of debt and dumping it on your front lawn! (smile) Worthless dollars, of course, but no deflation in dollar terms!"

Actually, I believe every dollar debt must finally be paid, either by the borrower or the lender, sooner or later. The only exception us to socialize it at some point, with blood shed.

It is very certain that the lender has much power than the borrower, who's blood will shed?

Generation Next

匿名 提到...

神探Joe哥好野,十卜

匿名 提到...

Good article about silver

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/5/16_Hugo_Salinas_Price_-_QE_in_US_Will_Lead_to_Utter_Destruction.html

匿名 提到...

抱歉想問一下
利昌最近買貨好像貨源少
想到kitco買銀塊
但今天打去問
佢好似自己都唔回收
那要搵咩人回收

匿名 提到...

利昌收銀有咩費用??

匿名 提到...

>> 利昌收銀有咩費用??
按照當日每兩銀價減16元回收 !!

Gordon 提到...

謝joe兄百忙中開庫。

因這話題我之前研究左好耐,所以請大家包涵,容忍我係呢個話題講多幾句。

我想到的借錢買實金銀的2大好處:

1.將來輕微或超級通漲時,金銀同升可保值或增值,而持有其間能有對沖貨幣系統突然崩潰的危機,我覺得只係呢點,俾銀行的借貸利息已經抵消有餘;

2. 依家超低息時期(>3厘)的私人貸款,對比實際通漲(自己睇超市d實貨比較,實際年通漲率最少15%,痴線),其實借錢係負利率。
即係話即使你係銀行做定期儲蓄,有1.5%利息,你的購買力每天都仍被嚴重削弱緊。如果你有錢,你一定要投資於較高風險的其它地方。
如果你無儲蓄無投資,係大學生,係月光族,唔好以為唔關你事,其實高通漲呢隻怪獸一樣咬緊你,不斷侵食緊你每月月薪的購買力或將來社會中的工作機會,到超縮/超通時,你能否仍有份工或搵到份工做,每月有收入呢?

我想到的借錢買實金銀3大風險:

1.將來遇到大通縮的風險 - 金價跌到USD500,雖然波羅包亦跌USD0.05,不過欠銀行借款的銀碼不會變,咁就好大鑊;
2.將來剛巧遇到金銀價被人為撳低時(e.g.好似呢個黑色5月咁,群摩亂舞),而借款人失業,還唔到借款,局住賤價賣晒d貨,但可能都還唔晒d債,或者直接利用joe提到的黃金最大功能(笑);
3.還款期內被老闆知道了的話,有被駛到盡變人乾的風險。

再加句G兄的金句 - "My friend, debt is the very essence of fiat. As debt defaults, fiat is destroyed",和我加的下一句 "Only gold is eternity."

匿名 提到...

Gordon 兄,

金句仍FOA之金句,聖人教悔,述而不作,愚轉載而已。

FOA之所謂通縮不能行也,其理甚明,慎之。

Generation Next

honson 提到...

世界銀行:全球經濟格局轉變可能動搖美元一幣獨大的地位

http://www5.cnfol.com/big5/forex.cnfol.com/110518/134,1381,9888586,00.shtml

世界銀行(World Bank)最新發佈的報告中指出,到2025年時全球經濟的大規模變革將推動關鍵新興市場佔據全球經濟規模的半壁江山,國際貨幣體系也不會再由美元單一貨幣主宰。同時,隨著經濟權力的轉移,這些成功的經濟體將通過跨境商業和金融交易,幫助推動低收入國家的經濟增長。................

Gordon 提到...

Generation Next兄,

根據馬龍先生預測,應該是先有輕微通縮->引至政府瘋狂印錢->引至高通漲->引至真正通縮->引至超級通漲。

我覺得依家好似已在他說的第三階段 - 高通漲時期,下階段真正通縮不遠已。

當然超級通漲後,最終是法幣系統崩潰,對吧?

Gordon 提到...

國際貨幣體系也不會再由美元單一貨幣主宰
-------------------------------
honson兄,

呢排另一only you精選,美國政府已達法例負債上限的新聞。

若2025年仍有美元,我真係唔識計究竟美國到時的負債上限去到幾高和每年淨係俾美債d利息的支出佔每年GDP中百分之幾了?
會唔會係50萬億和500%(笑)

Wong Wai Leong 提到...

民間銀行開始接受黃金作為抵押品就好戲連場

Joe 提到...

到時就係end of the game,即係佢地厘定利率唔再參考美國國債!

嘉芙蓮 提到...

G Next,
what is you opinion on FOA's argument on Silver vs Gold?

Do u think the Silver story is really created and backed by the Bullion Banks, Miners, ETFs, Refiners, Mints, Retail Investors and the Industrial Silver Users?

Since you seem to be a fan of FOA, you might have alot of insight to it.

大風暴 提到...

不要怕, 只要信

匿名 提到...

test

匿名 提到...

test

匿名 提到...

Gordon兄:

“先有輕微通縮->引至政府瘋狂印錢…..”
當今世上,錢已非昨日之錢,電子記帳交割,要多少有多少,何需印?

依十年前FOA所論,債仍錢之本也,當債不能償,錢也不能買耳,但據此為通縮之理,不察上人有錢無限之權,愚雖不材,仍覺謬甚!蓋上人能以無限之錢償天下之債,捆之而置于堂前(此與當今直升機Ben雙映成趣),何通縮之有呢?

Generation Next

匿名 提到...

嘉芙蓮:

ANOTHER, FOA, FOFOA etc were/are all fans of gold, only gold. From Archive II, msg#53, I do inspired by the “Thought”.

My belief is: anyone holding gold would be a fool to trade it for silver (or Pt, Rh whatever). After the end game, gold to trade for goods or service will make much higher return. Same to silver, it is better to risk a trade for goods than be taken in a trade of gold.

For the silver story involving Bullion Banks, Miners, ETFs, Refiners, Mints, Retail Investors and the Industrial Silver Users etc, I am not able to make a judgment since I am an outsider, but the available information on the net suggests to me that it is a sophisticated game, if even a big guy wants to corner it.

May I answer your question by suggesting some interesting sites?

http://goldchat.blogspot.com/ talks about manning, refining, manufacturing, trading to -ve lease rate etc

http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2011/05/costatas-silver-open-forum.html <- you’ll find a good (and dead long article) involving SLV, and silver price suppression

http://www.mining.com/2011/01/14/silver-and-the-impact-of-slv-the-physical-silver-etf/  more detail on how SLV impacts physical

Generation Next

Gordon 提到...

Generation Next兄,

你說得對.我明白班上大人在現今運用電子貨幣的時代,喜歡按出多少個零的銀碼也可以.

但通縮在03年香港沙士後和美國09年是事實上出現過的.

正正因為通縮, 所以才有機會出現超通漲, 直升機Ben出qe的其中一個藉口,不就是因為通縮嗎?

我相信通縮只是整個美元系統崩塌中的其中一個過程,也因為貨幣供應基礎是班上大人控制,通縮出現於市場的時間一定短於通漲的時間.因為佢地一發現縮左,即刻又會撳撳撳...
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My belief is: anyone holding gold would be a fool to trade it for silver (or Pt, Rh whatever)

Support!!!I wanna hold gold only too, but my wallet allow me holding silver only...

嘉芙蓮 提到...

GN, Gordon,
Maloney's deflation theory is when people started to panic and stop spending, stop using their credit cards, stop borrowing, and use their savings & salary to pay up the debt, the money supply is actually going to contract. (as GN/FOA said, debt is the original of fiat). This spiral effect will eventually force the economy to follow, less spending will drive the supplier to decrease the price. THen follow by the drop of wages, however the debt is still there. But whether there is hyperinflation follows depends if government will intervene or not. At the end, too many variables, it might be human being, it might be natural disasters who drive the eventual outcome.

btw, GN, i read the 2nd "long" article already earlier, might need some more time to finish the other 2. thanks for that

大風暴 提到...

咁容易估到咩

匿名 提到...

Gordon兄,

03年通縮之因是港人錢不願轉手,09年通縮卻是人上人炒糊了拆摃杆賠錢時袋裡沒寸頭。兩者之因皆非錢少了,而是通縮大多出於意料之外。人上人借勢造錢救所不能不救,謀定後動而已。

何解要救?據FOA所論,皆因通縮讓我等樓按之抵押品、即彼等人上人之資產價值縮水也,而助我等有份牛工一路好走償債也是少數人上人與多數人下人之共同奮鬥目標。造錢引通漲易,收錢造通縮難,通漲通縮進退之間,皆人上人利之所依、險之所在,不可不為察也。

Gordon兄所指在超級通漲前之輕微通縮(威瑪德國、民國崩前)的確是史實,也的確為時甚短,要害之處正是當時除紙幣外,別無其它付款方法。吹噓超級通漲即將降臨,印紙幣需時,人下人排隊擠提之時,正是人上人持現掃貨之日。貨掃盡,錢印定,直升機灑下正是超級通漲之始,流血暴動可期也!

時移勢易,當今之世付款方法多如繁星,紙幣只九牛一毛,造錢從不費工夫,在通縮下少數人上人所能控制的實為有限,多數人下人之變數則近無限,以有限搏無限,未之有也。

人上人造通漲既易且利,造通縮既難且險,為何捨易取難?此仍愚之所謂通縮不能行也。

Generation Next

Gordon 提到...

Wong兄 & Joe兄,

中國民間銀行已有黃金抵押借貸服務數年了喎,據咁睇來,大陸係認真想同"某些人"攪對抗。

http://business.sohu.com/20050302/n224493797.shtml

不過當我搜尋進一步資料,想搵下貸款利息、手續方式等,我發覺我係香港、大陸的yahoo,google,百度都無既!一個咁大的貸款項目,竟然係網上搵來搵去都去都無有關資料,連中國銀行國內主網頁都無寫出來。

不過係我鍥而不捨下,終於搵到以下兩單國內報到,呢個貸款攪到好似好隱秘,每次報導都好係只係通知那個省市的居民咁。

http://cqsb.hsw.cn/gb/cqsb/2005-03/04/content_1679900.htm

http://frivolity.blog.hexun.com/38032468_d.html

匿名 提到...

Hi Gordon

From the 1st link, I see:

第一:黄金投资者购买黄金时,可先向银行缴纳欲购金价10%~15%的首付款,然后将自己以前的金条抵押给银行,即可买得现货黄金;

第二: 此种类型的业务还在酝酿中,据透露,此种黄金抵押贷款业务一般是参照上海金交所每日报价,再按照金价6到7折左右的折扣折价贷款。

The first one seems a kind of buy forward option to hedge the price hike of gold with collateral.

The second is just loan with gold as collateral, but the loan interest rate will be very interesting.

Thanks for the two links.

Generation Next

匿名 提到...

Hi Gordon

From the 1st link, I see:

第一:黄金投资者购买黄金时,可先向银行缴纳欲购金价10%~15%的首付款,然后将自己以前的金条抵押给银行,即可买得现货黄金;

第二: 此种类型的业务还在酝酿中,据透露,此种黄金抵押贷款业务一般是参照上海金交所每日报价,再按照金价6到7折左右的折扣折价贷款。

The first one seems a kind of buy forward option to hedge the price hike of gold with collateral.

The second is just loan with gold as collateral, but the loan interest rate will be very interesting.

Thanks for the two links.

Generation Next