2011年4月12日 星期二

股市正在崩盤中(修改版)

股市的境況,表面看好像很不錯,經過金融海嘯,道指從低位反彈一倍有多(從約6000點升到至今12300點),恆指亦一樣。 但拍住黃金做對比,股市其實沒有升過,且仍然陷入巨大的下跌浪當中,對上一次發生於何時?是六七十年代的石油危機及隨之而來的高通脹。再對上一次呢,是1930年的全球經濟大蕭條。兩次的金價對股市指數都不斷縮小,1930年縮少到1對2,而六七十年代那次,就縮小到1對1,道指850點,金價剛好$850美元。

這回金價會去到咩位?如果道指維持現狀不變,對比縮少到1對1,金價可升到$12,300美元每安士!如果像1930年那次,縮少到1:2,可見$6000美元,這是很多專家預測的依據,包括馬田大師。

金融海嘯不是元凶,它只是整個經濟崩塌的一個過程,元凶是貨幣及債務系統,其實崩塌從2000年經濟見頂就已經開始了。每個崩塌過程長達20年以上,1930年代的經濟大蕭條要到1950年才結束,發生了1960年代開始的經濟危機要到1980才結束,若以此計算,未來還有一半路程要走,直至閃閃發光的「金牛」「銀牛」將所以資產價格調整完畢為止。

往何如何?還要視乎貨幣去向,不代表循環會再次重復,或者世界會出現一個新的金融體系!

30 則留言:

TheGoldenMean 提到...

金作為一個Truest Measure Of Value, 用它來作定價單位其實最好不過, 可惜其貨幣角色一直被打壓, 並被眾法幣取代其位置,使好多資產都出現錯價既情況或曰經濟假象.

新的金融體系??碳排放權????

匿名 提到...

maybe use gold or silver as a legal precious metal for purchase and sale.

Lawrence

金錢一一 提到...

銀紙代替金銀成為貨幣係因為輕便易於携帶喎,用碳排放權唔通貪佢輕如無物?

匿名 提到...

如果從美國聯儲局主席伯南克或副主席葉倫的言論看,當局似乎仍然對推行量寬政策有著一定的堅持,甚至認為通脹只是暫時性。雖然局內已有不少反對聲音,但只要手握超過六成投票權的上述兩位大員一意孤行的話,超低利率環境誰也阻不了。

 根據美國財政部的資料顯示,中國於1月再減持美國國債54億美元,是連續三個月的減持,正逐步反映中國對美債的信心有相當的保留。原本沒有中國,美國還有日本這忠實擁躉,可是大地震加上核災難,令日本未來重建費用可能以千億美元計算,資金從何來已成日本目前的一大難題。日本自顧不暇時,哪有餘力幫美國買債呢?

 所以,隨著QE2會在6月底完結,以及美國國債在海外的吸引力大幅下降下,聯儲局的確需要正視現在面對的問題,因為如果現階段全面退市,或尋求另類的QE方案,最後只會令美債價格大跌,同時使孳息率抽升,為美國樓市增添壓力。

 可是如果繼續推出量寬政策,聯儲局又會面對另一問題,就是美元會否受到更大的沽壓,因為當歐洲央行已開始加息,息差續擴傦下,沽售美元便成投資者最合理的選擇,引發新一輪的美元急跌潮。 ■網址︰www.upway18.com

Lawrence

匿名 提到...

見師兄/姊們說開碳交易,
唔知大家有沒有看過這短片呢?

<>
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8rwLF5INAfc

平凡人

大風暴 提到...

碳排放權只是用來以環境去掠奪發展中國家的財富

大風暴 提到...

http://wealthcycles.com/features/the-hunt-brothers-capped-the-price-of-gold-not-50-silver?page=2&utm_source=Webmail%20Marketing&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=4%20-%2011%20-%202011%20-%20GS%20-%20Weekly%20Newsletter&utm_content=4%20-%2011%20-%202011%20-%20GS%20-%20Weekly%20Newsletter%20CID_3e7adf81ec939d629da4f7f89140d675&utm_term=Mike%20Maloney%20is%20out%20to%20set%20the%20record%20straight%20on%20what%20happened%20in%20the%20last%20bull%20market%20for%20precious%20metals

大風暴 提到...

以上是mike講解關於亨特兄弟的事件

Satan_Wong 提到...

仲未搞清楚..黃金同股市比..股市:黃金=1:1..代表了什麼呢?
而股市:黃金=10:1又代表了什麼呢?

Joe 提到...

dow/gold ratio 係道指與金價比
例如道指=8852, 金價=800, 咁dow/gold ratio 就係=11.065
dow/gold ratio 下跌, 即係道指下跌幅度大於金價下跌幅度, 或金價上升幅度大於道指上升幅度, 又或道指下跌金價上升, 亦即係渣金好過渣道指,
若 dow/gold ratio 上升即以上的相反

-----------------------------
168師兄們有解釋

匿名 提到...

This time it may go to 0.5~0.8 based on that graph.

Gordon 提到...

JOE是否睇完沈聯濤於人言報的新文,有感而發寫本文的呢? 我睇完就有被震撼感覺, 以沈的江湖地位,以如此赤裸裸的,坦白的文字寫出股市實況已經開始崩潰,實在令人需要深呼吸定定神.

還有,昨晚於168又有免費金執,糟老頭兄談及:
"多數人到嗰陣都已經變左大閘蟹 ( in stocks/ real estate, see below ), 只能望門興嘆而已 !

PIMCO 沽美債, 楂 Cash, 請 Equity & CDS 高手.

http://www.pimco.com/EN/PressReleases/P ... onals.aspx

即係佢地睇先 inflation ( +/- hyperinflation ) 後 deflation ?? ( ?? Via issuance of new currency ?? Just my guess ).

咁情之下, 既要保存購買力去 survive massive inflation, 然後去執 deflation 時期嘅 地產, 捨金其誰 ???"

我做口水尾天王,轉呢d高手的睇法出來,係認同他的想知及想大家有多一方面睇法.因為我估如果唔引用糟兄威名,話係我諗的話,實有人又走出來寫d哈哈哈之類留言.

Joe 提到...

全中!以前都想講,不過,黃金資料實在太多,而家至講,其實有d遲,但又要諗下,各位蟲蟲有冇時間消化,一次講太多,食滯左就無謂!

Joe 提到...

成幅的形態係趨勢擴大中,有可能如上面人兄說,見0.5!即係任佢點印錢谷股市都冇用,愈谷金愈升,愈大鑊,爆得愈精彩!1930年是產能過剩後通縮做成,當時政府冇量化寬鬆。六七十年代是金本位倒台+戰爭,局勢不穩做成,今次情況係兩溝,史所未見,所以難以估計,無得參考!

匿名 提到...

此圖是以道指/金價,請問是否已經計算股息加以比較?我是小A

Gordon 提到...

JOE兄,
愚見以為,綜合各方資料,馬田大師網站透露9月後才可再寫文章,是參透全局的關鍵!
因為只有大師般的INSDIER的資料,而又有牛脾氣才可有機會透露玄機,撥開層層迷霧,使我們參透神秘組織和大陸的進一步計劃. 有網友留言說大師近日有新文章, 建議我兄首先閱讀此文,可能有登高望遠, 看清全局的效果.

Joe 提到...

好難計股息,100年前,有好多公司已經消失,亦好少人可以渣一隻股渣足幾代人,早期又冇道指指數基金,要買就要買個股,冇辨法計一個平均股息回報,況且期間,黃金都曾經有息收,點計?

CC 提到...

想請教各位,美國樓價巳大跌,有好多只標售一萬美元,
但168的糟老頭大大指美樓市還未跌完,
想請教美樓市之後會怎樣?

匿名 提到...

http://www.martinarmstrong.org/files/Hello%20World%2004-06-2011.pdf

閒人

匿名 提到...

On 4-April 2011 US Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner wrote to Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, John Boehner, the Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi, House Democratic Leader, and Mitch McConnell, Senate Republican Leader:

......I am encouraged that the leaders of both parties in both houses of Congress have clearly stated in public over the last few weeks and months that we cannot default on our obligations as a nation and therefore have to increase the debt limit. Because the date by which we need to increase the limit is growing nearer, I hope that the leadership in both houses will help us impress upon all Members the gravity of this issue and the imperative of timely action.

President Obama is strongly committed to working with both parties to restore fiscal responsibility, and he looks forward to working with Congress to achieve that critically important objective. In the meantime, it is critical that Congress act to increase the debt limit so that the full faith and credit of the United States is protected......

http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2011/04/reference-point-gold-update-2.html
----------------

So, is it any different from "default" to "increase the US debt limit"?

Gold go go...

Generation Next

匿名 提到...

On 4-April 2011 US Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner wrote to Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, John Boehner, the Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi, House Democratic Leader, and Mitch McConnell, Senate Republican Leader:

......I am encouraged that the leaders of both parties in both houses of Congress have clearly stated in public over the last few weeks and months that we cannot default on our obligations as a nation and therefore have to increase the debt limit. Because the date by which we need to increase the limit is growing nearer, I hope that the leadership in both houses will help us impress upon all Members the gravity of this issue and the imperative of timely action.

President Obama is strongly committed to working with both parties to restore fiscal responsibility, and he looks forward to working with Congress to achieve that critically important objective. In the meantime, it is critical that Congress act to increase the debt limit so that the full faith and credit of the United States is protected......

http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2011/04/reference-point-gold-update-2.html
----------------

So, is it any different from "default" to "increase the US debt limit"?

Gold go go...

Generation Next

匿名 提到...

just go to lee cheong and kitco to buy silver. lee cheong@392.5/tael while kitco silver @331 (1oz ) per pcs. imho is more attractive than lee cheong!
pc

匿名 提到...

今日中午去左利昌,因為等朋友,坐左40分鐘到,見到分別有2個客買左10万銀以上,之後再見到4人組合好像想買100万銀,真係吓人!!!!利昌的工人不停說銀造唔切.瘋了!!!!

唔知係唔係有blog友去左入貨呢?

匿名 提到...

我地呢d 每次只係數千元的簡直係形同赤貧.

fubjj 提到...

其實而家美國經濟咁樣
我有個阿sir退休後會返加國養老
其實對呢類人黎講留係香港好定返北美好呢

大風暴 提到...

銀價金價回調中

阿葉 提到...

回Joe兄

<<< dow/gold ratio 係道指與金價比
<<< 例如道指=8852, 金價=800, 咁dow/gold ratio 就係=11.065
-----------------------------------------------
<<匿名提到...

<<< This time it may go to 0.5~0.8 based on that graph.

-----------------------------------------------

我用今日的資料去算:道指=12296, 金價=1460,咁dow/gold ratio 係=8.4225,

跟那 C 兄,算出來的 "0.5-0.8"有出入,
請各C兄指教 !

Joe 提到...

師兄意思係將來,唔係而家!

阿葉 提到...

謝joe兄..
明白

匿名 提到...

甘買法, 應該是投機多, 如果回調大, D貨又會走番出黎, 始終香港人鍾意炒賣, 叫佢地坐貨十幾年, 好難.

路人甲